Yh sxb, same here wallahi. I went through a phase of being fucking obsessed,trying to get ahold of as much scientific literature and studies as possible etc. Now I'm almost numb to it all.
For the economic read but its for the US economy
* After a strong January and February, the U.S. economy ground to a halt in March, evidenced by the stunning rise of weekly jobless claims and last month’s loss of 701,000 payrolls. With much of the country shut down in April, and the lockdown expected to continue at least until May, second-quarter GDP growth could potentially clock in at a jarring -25% or worse. But keep in mind that quarterly GDP growth rates are annualized, so even if such a dire scenario were to occur, the contraction for the quarter itself would be “only” 6%-7%. Still, an annualized double-digit downturn would mean a recession—broadly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth—is a near-certainty.
* Merely mentioning the possibility that the economy may shrink at a 25% rate, even for a short period, brings to mind the Great Depression of 1929-1939. Could the U.S. be headed for another one? No, not in our view.
* To be clear, we’re not expecting a sharp, “V-shaped” recovery. That would require a quick, robust, and sustained economic turnaround, and there are still too many unanswered questions related to the coronavirus itself and what the economy will look like as activity returns. But we’re cautiously optimistic that certain segments of the economy, perhaps starting with small businesses such as restaurants and retail shops, will begin to open up during the summer. Against that backdrop, growth in the third quarter (July through September) will likely be positive, making the 2020 recession painful but brief—shorter, in fact, than the one triggered by the 2008 financial crisis.
* Buffers that should help cushion the downturn include: * Generally strong household balance sheets. February’s personal savings rate (+8.2%) was close to a 30-year high, while debt service costs remain near a 40-year low as a percentage of household income.
* A healthy banking system. New regulations implemented after the 2008-09 financial crisis have strengthened banks’ balance sheets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated as much last week, noting that he didn’t believe U.S. banks will need to suspend paying dividends in 2020 to preserve capital, as European banks have agreed to do.
* Swift, expansive global stimulus. The Fed is not the only central bank taking action. Since mid-March, the European Central Bank has announced a series of stimulus packages totaling over €1 trillion (just shy of $1.1 trillion). In the emerging markets, monetary policy has been amped up in Latin America. Central banks in Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru all moved early and aggressively. * On the fiscal policy front, the U.S. Congress has begun discussions on a round of aid to supplement the CARES Act. And last week, eurozone finance ministers announced a €500 billion ($550 billion) rescue plan. China, meanwhile, is poised to spur infrastructure investment, backed by 2.8 trillion yuan (about $400 billion) of local government bonds..
Equity markets rally as optimism prevails
www.tiaa.org