I would like to think they'd go to Sudan before Somalia.They probably want the TPLF to take over but not throw Ethiopia into anarchy.
They will probably pressure Abiy Ahmed to negotiate or leave Ethiopia before any harm done.
Egypt and Sudan don’t want a collapsed Ethiopia.
A weaker Ethiopia is their intention but they don’t Ethiopia to turn into Somalia.
Also, where do you think is the first place these refugees are going?
You guessed it, Somalia.