@DR OSMAN
That's definitely been assessed during the risk management analysis on what sort of obstacles are present currently in terms of building a modern state in the country with fundamental government structures in place so that we could make sure security is taken care of foremost. Obviously the 'hordes' as you call them or frankly speaking the moryaans were high up on the risk management analyisis of potential problems that were always present since they don't have a single point of command and are reliant upon short term 'xaa cuuna' principles.
Those principles are built on no foundation thus you're view of shaky grounds is applicable here, however this is the set of cirsumstances that are currently in play and have been this way for a long time now.
Whether you admit it or not the government is going to continue making progress as long as it is thought to be legitimate which is the case as of now.
It was not legitimate when Abdiqasim was in a hotel in Nairobi since he couldn't even come to Villa Somalia, it was also not as legitimate during Abdullahi Yusuf since there were battles ongoing and this was dubbed the beginning of the TFG the issues during this period made Yusuf resign.
This legitimate government only came about 7 years ago when it became the FGS and ceased being the TFG so we will see in this upcoming election how shaky this ground is, or if it's going down the path of progress.
I am not denying the govt is making 'slow progress' cause it can be measured 4 years what is achievable and what could be achieved simply hasn't been but this doesn't mean nothing has been achieved, I am saying u need 'baseline' to measure from before u say 'progress' has been done, on what level are u arguing? from 91-2006 baseline? oh yes definitely, progress has been achieved but as u know as well as I do after 2009 and when abdillahi yusuf stepped down, the gains from then has been 'small' due to political outlook instability between the regions and the center and also within the center itself their has been too many 'xaa cuna' elements causing instability and holding this nation back.
So what are u exactly baselining your 'progress' from, from 2009 till now, it would be hard for u to argue any real 'large gains' whatsoever, u clearly haven't achieved 'federal' structure due to the president in the villa always going against the national/international consensus on Somalia. The regional govts do not look any different to what HSM left behind which were 'paper based' itself and Farmajo hasn't added a 'single milestone' to that.
Security well I wud argue has gone worse based on gaas-sharif terms vs farmajo term, plus there is 'data' we can look at to measure the 'casualties' rate between 2009-2020 and for each presidential period. Infact Abdillahi Yusuf had the lowest number if u look at his over-all 'time period' vs Sharif/HSM/Farmajo.
The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) has recorded ongoing violent conflicts since the 1970s. The data provided is one of the most accurate and well-used data-sources on global armed conflicts and its definition of armed conflict is becoming a standard in how conflicts are systematically...
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Plus when we 'assess' security we must look at it from 'two fold' analysis. Security gains achieved from 'casualties' is fine like abdillahi yusuf who had clear goal of solidifying the govt in the capital, the by-product from that casualties had an 'ultimate goal' behind it, but the other type of casualty which is 'death' toll increasing with no real 'objective' behind it other then instability increasing should be another category when measuring security achievements.
So if we talk pure security data, federalism data, social order data, unfpa estimation data, gdp data, we can go take it anywhere as-long as it's 'scientific method' discussion where it's actually tied to 'data' not so much 'opinion n incidents or emotions' but to demonstrate a 'trend' developing needs 'data' and 'time period' measurements. I don't mind scientific debates as it's based on much more then 'opinion' and is linked to something all can see. I mean when me and u debate UNFPA estimation, I am coming with 'garissa' census to baseline my population. I am also showing real 'satellite feeds of your district maps in the UN' being inconsistent. I mean niin dhan sidasi uu doodayo, waa 'rageedi' ma naxo since he knows to prove his case he need 'evidence' and science has many methodologies for 'evidence' based debate.
So I wud argue your 'progress' has been very minimal in comparison to your predecessors, nothing has been achieved in federation tasks, constitutional tasks, security tasks, which is the 'biggest mandate' of the government, it's not hard to open up 'ministry' buildings my friend in comparison to handing over federation-security-constitutional task completions, that requires a real 'brilliant' type of leader and that isn't Farmajo nor is it any HAG, but a 'Majerten' as these are mammoth tasks that can define or break the nation, when these are done, I am happy to hand over power to other clans to put in place the 'buildings' and social service delivery mandate as that isn't very much work to do at all then as all the major matters has been handled by our best people not our 'average' person like Farmajo or our horde type like HSM/SHARIF who actually went against those mandate achievements showing they didn't actually contribute they took us back to 'worser' place of 'disorder' which I must admit even tho Farmajo hasn't really done much if measured on 'data' and comparisons done, he hasn't gone to extent of HSM to roll back wht has been achieved