We all love to talk about what strategies we have going on other areas but very few discuss the strategy being executed on you, that's when u can balance and work out where it will head or if it's deadlock or long drawn out waiting for the 'cards to fall togeher' and I will tell u what I mean by cards. It's obvious HAG strategy is 'stalemate' and their willing to risk their people even for it and even closed down their own port and airport for nearly 20 years which is 'scary' situation why they wud make that move knowing PL/Kismayo wud be 'ripe' for their trade, well it cud be a way to keep you 'satisfied' till their 'cards' fall into place and losing a few billion a year is not a big thing in long-term strategy of setting up the cards in place they want. I tell you the cards I see clearly as day and their could be more but the ones that have been on-going for at least 3 decades showing their waiting it 'mature n ripe'.
Their is the Irir gang their deep into 'sool' so they can break dhulos up and harm harti chance at war in the future with only habar majerten which isn't good outcome for us, can we win without them only god knows but I don't want to find out niyahow as their so critical in our army history if we lose them into 'scramble' inside themselves, it will be 'big blow' on Harti for centuries in 'gabays' as it will turning milestone in Somalia power-sharing as dhulbahante is like the 'enforcer' of the agreement, if he steps away, things open up into 'war be it politics or army' so it's not in our interest to bargain that away for HAG jambal of 'suck on my port' while I lay out my cards.
Their deep into SL and there is no hiding that with the way the PM handled waqoyi seats showing a clear dominance that hasn't ended since the debacle of 60s where waqoyi came in as two camps and abdillahi issa was furious since they had 30 seats for their portion of representation and it broke down kkkkk, that's why Isaaq is told 'unite' waqoyi and isku dir dhulbahante gudaheeda adiguna meel fog ka jog ileen habar ba tahe kkkkk. Alot of mjs are not happy about this as it will lead to two outcomes.
1. PL has to send isaaq into the sea but this opens a flank with HG to save it alliance with Isaaq, it's two war front to split us up and our 'ciidan' will have to assess both camps and how to resource our best men on history and give high training not this isku tur tur, it will be turning point in somalia civil war not this stalemate since this is just giving ppl time to lay out their cards for long term. If that bloc of SSC is finished and if MJ doesnt secure it and Isaaq settles near garowe u r now locked into IRIR two way war, your stuck in middle and that's bad military position. Plus there is no way we can pass thru dhulbahante without their permission to end Isaaq as that is their game of 'abtiyo, malabkaygi ma cilowday' kkkk waana niinki la yiri hadadan dir sheegan badda ayaa galaysa cuz isaaq ma sheegan karo lakin waa sheegta hada waa cajib since we only protect dir cuz they invited us and we dont turn on them, there isnt single time in history we fought as it's violation to bite the hand that feed u 800 years ago and prepare u ake somalia with local knowledge and dhaqan thats why bah dir is given the kingship, they know the dhaqan very high which has caused problems inside us but it is what it is.
2. If Isaaq either settles in sool and slowly creeps up it's not good outcome, his hiding behind dhulboobe in the army formation as dhulbahante believes in the abtiyo culture were we only believe in abtiyo for dir cid kale axsan uma galno. Isaaq is dir for security but magacisa ma sheegan karo hadi dagaal dhaco as if he says he isnt dir he will be in the sea
3. We got the GM debacle also when 'sacad wa ogaden' it was warning shot to omar mahmud to not attack or ogaden coming to save sacad, they have relationship also historically because of 'doolo laga qadyee' as they assume we set the trend for it for somalis to start attacking them. So it's going to be hard for us to push sacad without an ogaden flank saving it's alliance. Then u got 'cayr n marehan' and that long time alliance even tho it's shaky they don't jepordise it and cayr has known warrior clan 'cabsiiye' so u need to 'divide' their ciidaan sxb on tarikh as they will be the hardest in the war and the rest will flee when he drops and it's quick war and not long one, if it gets long ppl start to uprise as it's effecting their economy cuz alot of shit has to go into ciidaan. We dont want a war with ogaden to be honest it will be long war of attrition and this is whaat 'sacad' wants inu labadasi meelood hal malin isku dhiciyo when the opportunity comes. Cayr has marehan ready if sacad finishes mj with dhulos gone and they march into cayr/marehan and move them, cuz sacad hates them, saleban is the only peaceful one but his shady character also but just money hungry there is no 'real move' he has made and is trustworthy.
4. They cud also use multiple political strategies which they have shown before to elect dhulbahante and cause harti war which we shouldn't ever respond to as jambal like in jama ali jama he is muse suldan ma yaqano dhaqanka reer miyiga and he got my cousin shot in the leg in madaxtoyo as we said 'u gotta go' before dhulboobe comes and i cant hold them on my own we only 5000 maximum and their not all ready 'reserves' either as we dont use all our clan only selected ones who had babies already thats why u see orphan children so they can carry on the lineage. Plus we resource at rate of 'slow' and 'low' to test the 'water' first so we don't make miscalculated war and lose all. Listen bah dubays wont survive in dhulbahante country there is no way we will send ciidan there to stop isaaq without dhulbahante approval and they dont need us as they can stop those habars if they want, waa been weeye niyahow cayaarta ay ku wadan dadkooda saying harti kuma rabo si loo nacsiiyo dadka oo tartib ah, which shocks my dad who says war anagu habar baaan nahay and we aint entering sool, only a few of our jifis even live there as it will duudo war of attrition on sools land and not duudo like last time, they dont fea issa mahmud tho but HG does after 93 but that war isn't like the war we had back then as that was serious war that england had to rush in with everything it had just for this area and airplanes and shit which is dog act they couldnt ome into ground warfare as there is no way white man will survive here on ground warfare in our backyard thats why italy found it hard to conquer it as we used the interior knowledge which they had no clue on but they then got smart n backed other nomads on us too for interior push and coastal bombardment and we knew it was over, u dont fight then sxb as ur surrounded and u work out the best surrender deal but even the surrender deal has to be one that is 'gainful' where u know u still got more if u wanted and calculate it against them. It's weird but we need to know our holes from history. Its definitely coastal bombardment plus interior push is the strategy to conquer majerteniya so we need to develop war strategies in the interior on how we can exhaust them with big hits so they keep pushing back
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