Do you think somalia is ever gonna get back somaliland?

Sanaag Is Isaaq

vladimir putin lol GIF
 

0117

Reborn
History Sides With Me Even Your Boy Tomb Lies In Harti Lands Lol Old Powers Are Awekening The Agents Of Aden Will Removed To Haud Stick To Faanan Iyo Gabay's
:hemad: :russ: :mjlol: :drakekidding:



Why not check the 1961 constitutional vote in Somali Republic...
 

mr steal your naag

banu hashim and shiettt
VIP
History Sides With Me Even Your Boy Tomb Lies In Harti Lands Lol Old Powers Are Awekening The Agents Of Aden Will Removed To Haud Stick To Faanan Iyo Gabay's
:hemad: :russ: :mjlol: :drakekidding:
Last time i checked mayd was isaaq land not harti land and everybodies tomb is in sanaag. Iam actually planning to visit it this summer :lolbron: :mjlaugh:
 
You honestly if Somaliand competes for Sool & Sanaag seats the FGS would award it to Puntland? Might makes right the federal state with the most influence over contested territory will win it's representation. It has been awarded to Puntland at present because Somaliland boycotts the selection process every year. Even Dir members are chosen in Mogadishu instead of Hargeisa.



If Somaliland demands Sool & Sanaag seats they can easily hold selection of pro Somaliland Harti in Lascanood & Ceerigabo. What could Puntland do aside from holding elections in Baran?


This also applies to Jubaland Madoobe will hand pick, Rahanweyn, Madow & Biimaal seats.
MSs would never let go of their claims on JSL eastern borders as the current federal system allows for tribal States not a "regional" based federal system as SL in Xamar is seen as "Dir" state something which JSL doesn't accept as the nation was never founded on Qabil but the shared identity and customs that northern different clans have and if SL rejoins Somalia border dispute between PL and SL would continue to exist which could destabilize the formation of Govt as two states are technically at war to each other and probably GM would become part of that conflict to claim the whole of Mudug region which could led to a civil war 2.0.
 
Somalia will never get Somaliland back by force because it doesn't have the military capability to do so and even if it could do that it would only lead to more hatred and bloodshed.
There's only ONE way Somalia can get Somaliland back : if Somalia manages to become peacefully and relatively developed (let's on ruanda's level for example) then Somalilanders would be more open to consider joining Somalia back. Even in that scenario though a lot of landers would still be anti somalia. I personally think it's to late for reunification, most somalilanders are young and only know about somaliland, some of them grew up to have strong hostile sentiment on Somalia and other somalis. Somalia should focus on solving it's internal problems, when it comes to SL we should give them full independence with the only Condition that they give us the Darood majority areas, if they refuse no problem they'll stay unrecognized.
If Somalia and it's leaders thought like you, Somaliland and Somalia would be best friends.

Great Job Reaction GIF by Bounce
 
Western powers refused to recognize Somaliland because the independance of Somaliland could trigger the emergence of nation states all across East Africa but could also spread to the entire continent.
I believe that Somaliland will continue to develop as an independant nation but at the end of the day the south will catch up for obvious reasons (international aid, bigger population, International military support especially by Turkey).
Somalia will eventually sign a deal with Somaliland which will grant Somaliland higher autonomy (kinda like Hong Kong) and the south will progressively integrate the north until we have one big united country.
However just like East and West Germany, major differences will persist for decades to come after the unification.
 

0117

Reborn
Western powers refused to recognize Somaliland because the independance of Somaliland could trigger the emergence of nation states all across East Africa but could also spread to the entire continent.
I believe that Somaliland will continue to develop as an independant nation but at the end of the day the south will catch up for obvious reasons (international aid, bigger population, International military support especially by Turkey).
Somalia will eventually sign a deal with Somaliland which will grant Somaliland higher autonomy (kinda like Hong Kong) and the south will progressively integrate the north until we have one big united country.
However just like East and West Germany, major differences will persist for decades to come after the unification.

The most recent examples of African countries receiving independence—Eritrea in 1991 and South Sudan in 2011—did not ignite a secessionist brushfire throughout Africa. Somaliland’s claim (as the African Union’s own fact-finding mission recognized in 2005 http://www.somalilandlaw.com/AU_Fact-finding_Mission_to_Somaliland_2005_Resume.pdf)
The report stated, “Somaliland’s search for recognition is historically unique and self-justified in African political history…. The case should not be linked to the notion of ‘opening a pandora’s box’. As such, the AU should find a special method of dealing with this outstanding case.” African Union, “AU Fact-Finding Mission to Somaliland.

is also unique because there is no other territory in Africa that was once independent before voluntarily joining a union it now wants to leave—and which has successfully operated for 30 years as a de facto sovereign state.
Today, Somaliland has its own currency, passport, foreign policy, and standing army —making it a genuinely unique African secessionist movement.

That means that recognizing Somaliland would raise the standard for recognition of secessionist movements in Africa :yousmart:

Read the full report :drakekidding:

 
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The most recent examples of African countries receiving independence—Eritrea in 1991 and South Sudan in 2011—did not ignite a secessionist brushfire throughout Africa. Somaliland’s claim (as the African Union’s own fact-finding mission recognized in 2005 http://www.somalilandlaw.com/AU_Fact-finding_Mission_to_Somaliland_2005_Resume.pdf)
The report stated, “Somaliland’s search for recognition is historically unique and self-justified in African political history…. The case should not be linked to the notion of ‘opening a pandora’s box’. As such, the AU should find a special method of dealing with this outstanding case.” African Union, “AU Fact-Finding Mission to Somaliland.

is also unique because there is no other territory in Africa that was once independent before voluntarily joining a union it now wants to leave—and which has successfully operated for 30 years as a de facto sovereign state.
Today, Somaliland has its own currency, passport, foreign policy, and standing army, and maintains control of the land it claims—making it a genuinely unique African secessionist movement.

That means that recognizing Somaliland would raise the standard for recognition of secessionist movements in Africa :yousmart:

Read the full report :drakekidding:

Eritrea and South Sudan didn't ignite a secessionist bushfire but Somaliland is different and I will tell you why.
Somaliland is a country that is 90%+ somali, and if you look at the map of east africa, you'll see that Ethiopia and Kenya both have a sizable somali population.
So if Somaliland somehow manages to get independance, what will happen to the somali regions of Ethiopia and Kenya?
Ethiopia is already dealing with the TPLF, and I believe you still remember what was happening in the Oromo province of Ethiopia in 2018. Imagine if 3 ethnic provinces of Ethiopia declare independance, it would result in a mess that could start a civil war in East Africa.

Somaliland has its own currency, passport, foreign policy, etc... so what?
The world refused to recognize Somaliland for 30 years (When Somalia had no government) and I wouldn't be surprised if the international community chooses to work with Somalia instead of Somaliland for the next 30 years because let's be honest nobody openly supports the independance of Somaliland.

When the south achieves stability, the FGS will be in a position of power.
I believe that the most realistic scenario is Somaliland signing a deal with the South.

Edit: I read the report, I don't think that the US will risk it's relation with Somalia.
As you may know, Somalia is a US ally, and one of the last east african countries that isn't heavily influenced by China.
Recognizing Somaliland as an independant state would severely damage the relation between the USA and Somalia.
 

0117

Reborn
Eritrea and South Sudan didn't ignite a secessionist bushfire but Somaliland is different and I will tell you why.
Somaliland is a country that is 90%+ somali, and if you look at the map of east africa, you'll see that Ethiopia and Kenya both have a sizable somali population.
So if Somaliland somehow manages to get independance, what will happen to the somali regions of Ethiopia and Kenya?
Ethiopia is already dealing with the TPLF, and I believe you still remember what was happening in the Oromo province of Ethiopia in 2018. Imagine if 3 ethnic provinces of Ethiopia declare independance, it would result in a mess that could start a civil war in East Africa.

Somaliland has its own currency, passport, foreign policy, etc... so what?
The world refused to recognize Somaliland for 30 years (When Somalia had no government) and I wouldn't be surprised if the international community chooses to work with Somalia instead of Somaliland for the next 30 years because let's be honest nobody openly supports the independance of Somaliland.

When the south achieves stability, the FGS will be in a position of power.
I believe that the most realistic scenario is Somaliland signing a deal with the South.

Edit: I read the report, I don't think that the US will risk it's relation with Somalia.
As you may know, Somalia is a US ally, and one of the last east african countries that isn't heavily influenced by China.
Recognizing Somaliland as an independant state would severely damage the relation between the USA and Somalia.

P1

Those somali regions of Ethiopia and Kenya will remain part of their respective countries. Were they independent countries with defined borders? Are they defacto states? :drakekidding:

P2

That's true but how long with this FGS experiment continue with international support? It's been nearly a decade and the constitution hasn't been finalised, Al-Shabab is still around, FGS only functions in Mogadishu and now there is now an election crisis. The question you should be asking is when will the IC pull the plug on Somalia and instead look for alternative solutions :mjkkk:

P3

Allies? The only thing Somalia offers is using up US TAX payers money.
China doesn't deal with failed states so I guess that's a point for Somalia :mjswag:
 
P1

Those somali regions of Ethiopia and Kenya will remain part of their respective countries. Were they independent countries with defined borders? Are they defacto states? :drakekidding:

P2

That's true but how long with this FGS experiment continue with international support? It's been nearly a decade and the constitution hasn't been finalised, Al-Shabab is still around, FGS only functions in Mogadishu and now there is now an election crisis. The question you should be asking is when will the IC pull the plug on Somalia and instead look for alternative solutions :mjkkk:

P3

Allies? The only thing Somalia offers is using up US TAX payers money.
China doesn't deal with failed states so I guess that's a point for Somalia :mjswag:
P1
Somaliland is part of Somalia (since they agreed to join in 1960) and now they want independance from Somalia.
It doesn't matter if Somaliland was independant.

P2
I don't know when it will happen, that's the problem.
Something that might help Somaliland get it's independance is if it has a good human rights record, full democracy, becomes a developed country etc... like Taiwan.
If it happens, then the US might recognize Somaliland since it doesn't need Somalia (Assuming that Somalia is still a mess).

P3
Somalia is an investment, since it's a failed state you don't need to spend a lot of money in order to get Somalia on your side. That's what Erdogan and Washington are doing right now.
 

0117

Reborn
P1
Somaliland is part of Somalia (since they agreed to join in 1960) and now they want independance from Somalia.
It doesn't matter if Somaliland was independant.

P2
I don't know when it will happen, that's the problem.
Something that might help Somaliland get it's independance is if it has a good human rights record, full democracy, becomes a developed country etc... like Taiwan.
If it happens, then the US might recognize Somaliland since it doesn't need Somalia (Assuming that Somalia is still a mess).

P3
Somalia is an investment, since it's a failed state you don't need to spend a lot of money in order to get Somalia on your side. That's what Erdogan and Washington are doing right now.

P1

It voluntary joined a union that was technically illegal as it was never ratified. You can google the 1961 coup and see the outcome from the judge on those that attempted the coup. Also, it's the Somali Republic that British Somaliland joined and not to what we have today which is Somalia.

P2

Like you said recognition must be in the interest of world power like America regardless of "Human rights" and other nonsense. If they see a benefit then it would happen. Good thing the world is now involved in a cold war with China :wow:

P3

What I don't understand from you is what does the US get from Somalia? Somalia provides absolutely nothing to the US whether that's economically or other affairs :kanyeshrug:
 
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