UPDATE Civil war enters second year in Ethiopia

[anonimo]

Gurgura land I can agree, Isse no. Isse are more recent. I still hear stories from my grandparents as to a huge population of issue moving into DD in the 60s but still not sufficient to control. The area of DD is the border between both Noole and Gurgura. The urban area we are definitely larger by number but in the badiya area, they are. Noole farm more in the Kombulcha area. At the end of the day, it’s hard to cut these 2 people apart as they’ve intermarried so much that most Gurguras around DD have Noole mothers and same goes with the Nooles having Gurgura mothers. At the end of the day, they’d both have sat in that city by marriage ties and by it being their natural border/barrier.

That was exactly my point, ever since the non-urban Gurgura Woreda was added to the city, the Gurgura are now the biggest single clan in DD.

As for the Ciise, no one can deny their presence in it today as demonstrated by the fact the the city was called Issa and Gurgura Awraja in Historical times. They are firmly established in the Northern parts of the city and in the surrounding Erer countryside. They have an actual presence in the Badiya area unlike the Noole who are city dwellers. As I stated in my previous post, most of the land that Dire Dawa sits on is the traditional land of Gurgura, and Ciise too as they have badiya land to the North of Dire Dawa.

There is no differentiating between non-Erer Gurguras and Nooles, I agree. However, you each always had your traditional farming land, Dire Dawa and its surroundings was mainly Gurgura whilst Kombolcha etc. was mainly Noole. Despite the heavy cohabitation between the two, there is no denying that the ethnic politics affecting Dire Dawa will bring some hard choices for everyone. If Gurguras make peace with their Ciise cousins and throw their lot in with Somalis, the city will hypothetically join a Somali State. This will undoubtedly lead to war as Oromo Nationalists falsely claim that DD is Oromo when the land it sits on is mainly Somali. I know it is not something that you want to happen, but let us keep it real bro, the Status Quo will change when Shit Hits the Fan! Sadly, from my perspective, Somali blood could be split on both sides as the AQ themselves have a large population that is ancestrally Somali. Also, this will be catastrophic for the Noole and Gurgura especially. Most of these Somali North America diaspora folk do not even realise that many of the 'Oromos' they ecounter in cities such as Minneapolis and Toronto are actually Gurgura who have traditionally intermarried with Nooles etc.

 

[mr steal your naag]

Lol if tplf conqueres addis ababa they made the greatest comeback since 2005 after liverpool cameback from a 3-0 disadvantage

 

[digaagjecel]

If they choose Somali and y’all end up joining Somalia or forming your own new Somali nation, kuddos to them for keeping their origins on a leash and staying with their peeps.but as Somalis would you also grant the local Oromo citizenship, would they be tortured or made to escape the city or would the be treated a second class citizens?

A lot of people will not agree with me but that’s a must! Denying their rights or persecuting them is against our religion and cultural morals. Somalis in the past have given Muslims Oromos citizenship. I just hope that if the roles were reversed and the city were to fall in your people’s hands that my people are treated like citizens.

 

[Libaax-Joore]

@AfranQallo somali and oromo

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

@AfranQallo somali and oromoView attachment 205776

@AfranQallo are you sheikhal or Jidwaaq?

 

[CanoGeel]

@AfranQallo somali and oromoView attachment 205776

we shud Karbaash the expansinist Oromos back to their land minus the Oromized Somalis but yeah it's hard to differentiate

 

[AfranQallo]

@AfranQallo are you sheikhal or Jidwaaq?

Neither, I’m Noole.

 

[Libaax-Joore]

Neither, I’m Noole.

We can dna test you you could be assimilated dir

 

[AfranQallo]

We can dna test you you could be assimilated dir

I’m not denying Somali in me, my maternal side are “Oromonized” Somali. Yabarre jidwaaq to be exact.

I have taken a test on 23&me.
51.1% Somalia
39% Ethiopia - regions with highest likely match are 1. Somali 2. Oromia
9% Sudan
.9% Broadly NE African

 

[anonimo]

We can dna test you you could be assimilated dir

He has already done a test, and yes he could be assimilated Dir but also Daarood. He is E-V32. Nonetheless, as he said, he is Noole. Whether he is hypothetically of Somali paternal ancestry is irrelevant today unless we are talking about Family History. Most Somalis in the AQ confederacy have been Oromo for hundreds of years, it is not a recent thing. He is Noole, nothing less and nothing more.

Some of y'all Daarods assume all assimilated Somalis in AQ are Dir when there are more than enough assimilated Daarods in the the Hararghe Oromos. There are even some West Hararghe Ittu who claim to be of Harti origin.

 

[World]

Abiy getting desperate

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Pretty crazy to look at the map now. the TDF and OLA are on the A2 highway, which leads directly to Addis. The risk that Ethiopia is shattered like Yugoslavia was is growing everyday. The Amhara may simply decide to secede if they are utterly defeated.

 

[Removed]

Tigray havent performed well in deeper flat farmlands. I dont see them holding anything vast post Addis conquest probably just a shift towards breaking down the west Tigray front.

This war isnt ending after Addis is conquered unless the west steps in. Tigray simply cant hold Ethiopia without external actors. The chaos that will come after Abiys fall and every Liyu and ENDFs equipment ends up in each regions USC/SPM equivalent will be a likely outcome without major finesse from the IC whos acting clueless right now. Whoever holds the title of the recognized interim government will be the one to decide whos leaving where bilaterally.

This will resemble Somalia before it represents Yugoslavia in my opinion. I dont see any possibility for containment long term again.

 

[GemState]

Tigray havent performed well in deeper flat farmlands. I dont see them holding anything vast post Addis conquest probably just a shift towards breaking down the west Tigray front.

This war isnt ending after Addis is conquered unless the west steps in. Tigray simply cant hold Ethiopia without external actors. The chaos that will come after Abiys fall and every Liyu and ENDFs equipment ends up in each regions USC/SPM equivalent will be a likely outcome without major finesse from the IC whos acting clueless right now. Whoever holds the title of the recognized interim government will be the one to decide whos leaving where bilaterally.

This will resemble Somalia before it represents Yugoslavia in my opinion. I dont see any possibility for containment long term again.

For a country that has forcibly brought together so many ethnicities, you need a clear majority to subjugate the rest and maintain control, like Russia. I don't think anyone can do this currently in Ethiopia. The Amhara's demographic power is decreasing every day, and the Oromo are too divided to assume leadership.

 

[Kanan]

Who's going to challenge TPLF after they capture Addis? Nobody. TPLF have 30 years of experience under their belt and wide network of collaborators from all regions who would most likely work with them. I can see TPLF reinstall Abdi Iley as president of DDSI. Probably do the same in every ethnic region.


They also appear to enjoy better relationship with the west and outside world. No body has came for Abiye help till now except for Eritreans and they pulled back from central Tigray to the border area.


I support Abiye to not fall. I want this war to prolong as much as possible.

 

[World]

Greater Tigray (minus Eritrea), the tplf should create this if they win the war instead of trying to rule Ethiopia.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Greater Tigray (minus Eritrea), the tplf should create this if they win the war instead of trying to rule Ethiopia. View attachment 205800

They don't have the manpower or the will necessary to accomplish anything of this scale. An independent Tigray may not even be able to protect its current borders from Eritrea, let alone try and invade Amhara and Afar. The Tigray were 6% of ethiopia's population in 2007, they are now in my opinion ~4.5% of the population. They are simply too small for Ethiopia.

 

[Removed]

Ive read some earlier points anyone thinking Amhara are winning so much as a happy meal toy deserve a permaban from global.

Who's going to challenge TPLF after they capture Addis? Nobody. TPLF have 30 years of experience under their belt and wide network of collaborators from all regions who would most likely work with them. I can see TPLF reinstall Abdi Iley as president of DDSI. Probably do the same in every ethnic region.


They also appear to enjoy better relationship with the west and outside world. No body has came for Abiye help till now except for Eritreans and they pulled back from central Tigray to the border area.


I support Abiye to not fall. I want this war to prolong as much as possible.

Those collaborators were thoroughly cleaned out. Tigray wont be able to keep a grip on OLA momentum and swiftly grab all other regions. Dissolving armies have affinity to get absorbed by their rebels look at the SNA with MSB.

Woldiya Dessie and Debre Birhan were the pillars to resist Tigray, utter failure in 2 and preperation to “defend Addis” using civilians already tells you the likely trajectory here for the third pillar. Abiys probably going to visit Mengistu soon.

Their is no massive foreign backing coming for the addis conquerors and their is no EPRDF coalition forming afterwards to gradually consolidate power. Your greatly overestimating Tigray capabilities and likely greatly misunderstand how they came to control Ethiopia in the first place.

 

[World]

They don't have the manpower or the will necessary to accomplish anything of this scale. An independent Tigray may not even be able to protect its current borders from Eritrea, let alone try and invade Amhara and Afar. The Tigray were 6% of ethiopia's population in 2007, they are now in my opinion ~4.5% of the population. They are simply too small for Ethiopia.

Don’t underestimate them. They are hugely mobilised, motivated and united, more than any other ethnicity. No other region is as mobilised as the Tigray region, it doesn’t matter if they are only 5 % of Ethiopia’s population when none of the other regions have as many united, organised fighters as them. They are fighting for survival. Achieving greater Tigray is more realistic than conquering all of Ethiopia in my opinion.

 

[Kanan]

Ive read some earlier points anyone thinking Amhara are winning so much as a happy meal toy deserve a permaban from global.

Those collaborators were thoroughly cleaned out. Tigray wont be able to keep a grip on OLA momentum and swiftly grab all other regions. Dissolving armies have affinity to get absorbed by their rebels look at the SNA with MSB.

Woldiya Dessie and Debre Birhan were the pillars to resist Tigray, utter failure in 2 and preperation to “defend Addis” using civilians already tells you the likely trajectory here for the third pillar. Abiys probably going to visit Mengistu soon.

Their is no massive foreign backing coming for the addis conquerors and their is no EPRDF coalition forming afterwards to gradually consolidate power. Your greatly overestimating Tigray capabilities and likely greatly misunderstand how they came to control Ethiopia in the first place.

TPLF created EPRDF in 89 which included Amhara & Oromo but they were still the majority.


Do you think TPLF are not capable of forging another ERPDF collation? No other group has experience to accomplish that. Abiye's PP collation has all but failed to garner wide country support.