First of all you would think I had more bias towards Hawiye numbers wich would lead me in boosting them, I did not I was very rigorous and got same numbers as you. I would go as far as saying its your unadultered bias towards Darod blinding you, you seem to lack objectivity when it comes to your own clan.
There is no sign of district level data on UN sites. I checked it and surprise the district level data you linked is from 2005. Wich was deemed unreliable by the team doing 2014 estimations.
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The bigger the Harti up north are the more ppl you will lose in balkanization scenario. I ran your own numbers(Note: quite biased figueres) and it put Darod in ItalianSL at 29.8% not 31%.
JL is very diverse and sparsely populated. Rx part of Gedo has thousands of villages on the rich farm lands of the East bank. Im supposed to believe these villages have less ppl than the arid and eroded side of Gedo with no sign of settlement beside few towns?
A major reason why the 2014 was done in the first place was to obtain detailed data that could then be used to create district level populations.
This is why the UNFPA went to great lengths to create thousands of small Enumeration Areas (EA)s, they wanted to be able to later calculate the population of each district.
That Marehan are the majority in Gedo, is exactly what I want you to believe. Dry and waterless Garbahaarey has more people than Luuq on Juba. In the same way that Bari has double the population of lush & green Middle Juba.