US Ambassador to Somalia, Larry André, interviewed about Somaliland.

[Expo]

Military!!!. You know PL has war with them??

Actually since Deni came to power, it seems that Puntland and Somaliland down low are allies, specially towards Somalia.

 

[anon2]

The average Hawiye may want a united Somalia, but most of the ones I've met and many of those on TV, in Social media and in Politics, is either fine with SL seceding or does not care, especially HG. A small minority is as anti-SL as you.

The above is just my perception of things. I can't pretend to know the reality in Xamar and other Hawiye lands.

Sxb, I have some random questions incoming, but do you believe in any form of Somaliweyn? (Somalis will be the majority ethnic group in Kenya and Ethiopia in 30-40 years, both regions in those countries have the right to secede.) Do you also think reconciliation in the future is possible? If no do you accept SL being an economic region of 3 cities that still gets money from the Union but isn't taxed, while Awdal and SSC join the union. This is all hypothetical and going off my optimistic view of the future of Somalis and Somalia.

 

[Rationale]

Really interesting comment.

By stating Somaliland leaving and taking northern Dir is a good thing for Harti, you're also accepting that all Somaliland proper (including SL Harti) leaving is equally a good outcome for Hawiye who will dominate Somalia politically if Dhulbahante and Warsangali are gone with Isaaq and Dir.

What makes you think Hawiye will vote against their interest?

If Hawiye followed your logic, the best outcome for them is an independent Somaliland on the entire territory of the former Somaliland Protectorate that is dominated by Isaaq, and a Somalia sans northern Harti thats dominated by Hawiye.

His whole post is what one would call a smoke screen. If SomaliLand tries to secede without East Sool and East Sanaag they would lose their main argument for secession. Which is "two newly independent countries of Italian Somaliland and British Somaliland joined together on July 1st to form the Republic of Somalia, and since the collapse of the central government in 1991 the British Somaliland has by a referendum decided to end Somalia and reclaimed its once lost sovereignty".

The only path for SL independence is upholding the prior mentioned argument combined with complete takeover of former britishSL with well established borders. Then implementing good governance. If SL administration keeps up the famed democratic elections, political stability, property rights and create an atmosphere that protects private property and encourages entrepreneurialism. It's more than likely to get recognition even without Somalias aporoval or the need to even show up on the negotiation table. They can say "the country called Somalia ceased to exists the moment the BritishSL citizen decided by a referendum to retake their sovereignty, there is nothing to negotiate with the the successor state of ItalianSL".

 

[Rationale]

I did the math using 2014 figures.

Share of population in united Somalia: Darod 27% Hawiye 28%
Share if all of British Somaliland were to secede: Darod 31% Hawiye 39%
Share if Dir Woqoyie only secede: Darod 36% Hawiye 37%

The secession of all of Somaliland or of just Dir Woqoyie would have a similar impact on Hawiye, its share would rise. Any secession is in the interest of Hawiye, all of British Somaliland leaving is only marginally better, only 2%, than Dir Woqoyie leaving and Harti Woqoyie staying.

The Darod share in Koonfur would rise in both cases, but Darod would be relatively smaller vis a vis Hawiye.

How interesting I also got Hawiye at 28.8% of Unified Somalia.

Unified Somalia:
Hawiye - 28.8%
Dir(only Isaaq+Awdal) - 24.7%
Daarood - 21.2%
Raxanweyn - 19.3%
Leaving minorities at 6.1%.

In the BritishSL independence scenario the numbers started to hugely favor beesha Raxanweyne and Hawiye to some extent.

Balkanized Somalia:
Hawiye - 40.3%
Raxanweyn - 26.4%
Darood - 24.6%

In this scenario biggest winner would be Raxanweyn that jumps from 4th place to second in Balkanized Somalia. And Dir that jumps from second place in Unified Somalia to an absolute majority in SL. Its fair to Say Daaroods will be taking the biggest L while Hawiye is unaffected(Laandheere iga dheh) and beesha Raxanweyne collecting the W. @Woke1.4rm.Shibis you gotta tell beesha RX to up their support for SL independence

I dont know where you getting these numbers for Darood. I gave Harti 70% of Sool and 40% Sanaag and their population amounted to ~446 849. While whole of Somaliland has a population of 3 508 180 these numbers don't lie no matter how much you twist them.

I think our differences in Darood population stems mainly from Gedo and Mudug. Im sure you favored Darod specially in how you splitted Mudug.


Those who are interested here is the UN 2014 figure.

 

[World]

How interesting I also got Hawiye at 28.8% of Unified Somalia.

Unified Somalia:
Hawiye - 28.8%
Dir(only Isaaq+Awdal) - 24.7%
Daarood - 21.2%
Raxanweyn - 19.3%
Leaving minorities at 6.1%.

In the BritishSL independence scenario the numbers started to hugely favor beesha Raxanweyne and Hawiye to some extent.

Balkanized Somalia:
Hawiye - 40.3%
Raxanweyn - 26.4%
Darood - 24.6%

In this scenario biggest winner would be Raxanweyn that jumps from 4th place to second in Balkanized Somalia. And Dir that jumps from second place in Unified Somalia to an absolute majority in SL. Its fair to Say Daaroods will be taking the biggest L while Hawiye is unaffected(Laandheere iga dheh) and beesha Raxanweyne collecting the W. @Woke1.4rm.Shibis you gotta tell beesha RX to up their support for SL independence

I dont know where you getting these numbers for Darood. I gave Harti 70% of Sool and 40% Sanaag and their population amounted to ~446 849. While whole of Somaliland has a population of 3 508 180 these numbers don't lie no matter how much you twist them.

I think our differences in Darood population stems mainly from Gedo and Mudug. Im sure you favored Darod specially in how you splitted Mudug.


Those who are interested here is the UN 2014 figure.
View attachment 230546

The 2014 UN figure is broken down into districts BTW.

You said Harti is only 40 % of Sanaag, yet the exclusive Warsangeli district of LasQoray makes 44 % of the population of Sanaag. Ceerigabo district is likewise split 50/50. This makes Sanaag 63 % Harti.

Sool excluding Caynabo is 82 % Harti. And you also excluded Buuhoodle in Toghdeer for some reason. This makes Harti in Somaliland 695k.

695k + Bari + Nugaal + North Mudug + Caabudwaaq, + 20 % of Bakool, 70 % of Gedo, 30 % Middle Juba, Lower Juba(excluding Jamaame) = makes Darod around 26 %. This is the absolutely most conservative estimate possible. Idk where on earth u got 21.2 % from.

 

[Rationale]

The 2014 UN figure is broken down into districts BTW.

You said Harti is only 40 % of Sanaag, yet the exclusive Warsangeli district of LasQoray makes 44 % of the population of Sanaag. Ceerigabo district is likewise split 50/50. During the 1960-1969 election, 2/4 of the MPs in elected were Harti. This makes Sanaag 63 % Harti.

Sool excluding Caynabo is 82 % Harti. And you also excluded Buuhoodle in Toghdeer for some reason. This makes Harti in Somaliland 695k.

695k + Bari + Nugaal + North Mudug + Caabudwaaq, + 20 % of Bakool, 70 % of Gedo, 30 % Middle Juba, Lower Juba(excluding Jamaame) = makes Darod around 26 %. This is the absolutely most conservative estimate possible. Idk where on earth u got 21.2 % from.

The UNFPA 2014 has 121 pages and none of them mention district level population figueres.

As what comes to how to measure Darod population its so tricky because you lot seem to hide in the bushes, no large scale settlements no traces left for the stellite images all I have is believe me.

War you will never convince me there is more Darod in Sanaag than Isaaq. Sool is the least inhabited region in Somalia whether its 70% or 80% makes no real difference. Btw Buhodle is a village on the Ethiopean border its hard not to forget it.

Gedo is atmost 45% Darod with 40% Raxanweyn and about 15% Madow and rest. I gave Caabudwaaq a generous 120k, I gave North Mudug 40%. The only districts with clear Darod majority are Bari, Sool, Nugaal and Lower Jubba rest of the districts you dont even make 50%. Im being very unbiased these numbers dont look good for you saaxiibyaal

Darod dont have the numbers in Somalia I actually thing it might even be in your interest that Isaaqs secede. Since Isaaq+Dir is undisputed second rivaling Hawiye for the top position.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

How interesting I also got Hawiye at 28.8% of Unified Somalia.

Unified Somalia:
Hawiye - 28.8%
Dir(only Isaaq+Awdal) - 24.7%
Daarood - 21.2%
Raxanweyn - 19.3%
Leaving minorities at 6.1%.

In the BritishSL independence scenario the numbers started to hugely favor beesha Raxanweyne and Hawiye to some extent.

Balkanized Somalia:
Hawiye - 40.3%
Raxanweyn - 26.4%
Darood - 24.6%

In this scenario biggest winner would be Raxanweyn that jumps from 4th place to second in Balkanized Somalia. And Dir that jumps from second place in Unified Somalia to an absolute majority in SL. Its fair to Say Daaroods will be taking the biggest L while Hawiye is unaffected(Laandheere iga dheh) and beesha Raxanweyne collecting the W. @Woke1.4rm.Shibis you gotta tell beesha RX to up their support for SL independence

I dont know where you getting these numbers for Darood. I gave Harti 70% of Sool and 40% Sanaag and their population amounted to ~446 849. While whole of Somaliland has a population of 3 508 180 these numbers don't lie no matter how much you twist them.

I think our differences in Darood population stems mainly from Gedo and Mudug. Im sure you favored Darod specially in how you splitted Mudug.


Those who are interested here is the UN 2014 figure.
View attachment 230546

You got the same share for Hawiye because I limit my bias when calculating the populations of various clans by imposing rules and not deviating from them even when I don't like how things turn out. I don't lie to myself. I only deviate from my rule if I have some supplemental data that I can use.

You were trying to be be honest, but you went with what you felt was right, and ended up underestimating the Harti in Woqoyie by 35%.

@World numbers are actually an underestimate. I have Harti Woqoyie at 694,000.

Speaking of Mudug and Gedo, we have the 1931 census to give us a rough beginning.
In 1931, Obbia and Rocca Littorio (Galkayo) combined were 60% Darod and 40% Hawiye. These two districts would later become the Mudug of today.

Meanwhile Bardera and Lugh Ferrandi, had a population that was 56% Darod. Darod was a majority there although Bardera district at that time contained large sections of what is today Bay.

Darod's share of Mudug and its share of Gedo have only risen since then. Jariban and Galdogob alone have the same number of people as what was previously Obbia district and is today Hobyo and Xarardheere.

You can download the district level data from 2014. File name is somalia-population-statistics 2014 Link

 

[Rationale]

You got the same share for Hawiye because I limit my bias when calculating the populations of various clans by imposing rules and not deviating from them even when I don't like how things turn out. I don't lie to myself. I only deviate from my rule if I have some supplemental data that I can use.

You were trying to be be honest, but you went with what you felt was right, and ended up underestimating the Harti in Woqoyie by 35%.

@World numbers are actually an underestimate. I have Harti Woqoyie at 694,000.

Speaking of Mudug and Gedo, we have the 1931 census to give us a rough beginning.
In 1931, Obbia and Rocca Littorio (Galkayo) combined were 60% Darod and 40% Hawiye. These two districts would later become the Mudug of today.

Meanwhile Bardera and Lugh Ferrandi, had a population that was 56% Darod. Darod was a majority there although Bardera district at that time contained large sections of what is today Bay.

Darod's share of Mudug and its share of Gedo have only risen since then. Jariban and Galdogob alone have the same number of people as what was previously Obbia district and is today Hobyo and Xarardheere.

You can download the district level data from 2014. File name is somalia-population-statistics 2014 Link

First of all you would think I had more bias towards Hawiye numbers wich would lead me in boosting them, I did not I was very rigorous and got same numbers as you. I would go as far as saying its your unadultered bias towards Darod blinding you, you seem to lack objectivity when it comes to your own clan.

There is no sign of district level data on UN sites. I checked it and surprise the district level data you linked is from 2005. Wich was deemed unreliable by the team doing 2014 estimations.

The bigger the Harti up north are the more ppl you will lose in balkanization scenario. I ran your own numbers(Note: quite biased figueres) and it put Darod in ItalianSL at 29.8% not 31%.

JL is very diverse and sparsely populated. Rx part of Gedo has thousands of villages on the rich farm lands of the East bank. Im supposed to believe these villages have less ppl than the arid and eroded side of Gedo with no sign of settlement beside few towns?

 

[FBIsomalia]

Actually since Deni came to power, it seems that Puntland and Somaliland down low are allies, specially towards Somalia.

You are wrong here. Jeegaan why didnt achive any victory is because Deni reform PL army. Even jegaan were kick out of bari sanaag in 2019.

Plus new training troops were sent to Sool, Sanaag iyo cayn. It seems you dont follow up with news!.

Jeegaan cant wage war with Deni because PL army now orgnaize and more troops and modern ammo.

Same thing with PL police. Markaas because of PL.

 

[bidenkulaha]

The average Hawiye may want a united Somalia, but most of the ones I've met and many of those on TV, in Social media and in Politics, is either fine with SL seceding or does not care, especially HG. A small minority is as anti-SL as you.

The above is just my perception of things. I can't pretend to know the reality in Xamar and other Hawiye lands.

HG are probably mostly neutral for sure outside of wanting a united Somalia. I’d support a twin power SL+Somalia on your borders with 50-50 share so I’m not as anti-SL as you might think. I just see it as terribly damaging politically to Somalis to split.

Actually since Deni came to power, it seems that Puntland and Somaliland down low are allies, specially towards Somalia.

Both PL and SL can never be allies. They have a massive land dispute. HSM in his reign most of Harti land was gained by SL. It’s very easy for Somalia to set them against each other

 

[Expo]

You are wrong here. Jeegaan why didnt achive any victory is because Deni reform PL army. Even jegaan were kick out of bari sanaag in 2019.

Plus new training troops were sent to Sool, Sanaag iyo cayn. It seems you dont follow up with news!.

Jeegaan cant wage war with Deni because PL army now orgnaize and more troops and modern ammo.

Same thing with PL police. Markaas because of PL.

Actually I'm not wrong here brother but rather neutral. You can smell it from a far. Somaliland getting kicked out of Eastern Sanaag is partially due to the locals. The same argument could be said about Buuhoodle. Denis infamous speech about we are closer to them still echoes.

I don't blame Deni as he and his predecessors we're incompetent except for AY. And even AY could be lumped in on this mix as he is the one who started all this by reinstating that the Presidency and power is MS and by taking all of the elite Puntland forces with him to Somalia in 2007.

I honestly believe it's within Puntland's interest to close the boarder between Sanaag and Bari and wash their hands off of these communities. Nothing good comes from them.

 

[Expo]

Millions of dollars have been spend on Sool, Sanaag, Cayn and Somalia since 1998 and Puntland's people got nothing but insults and hate in return by those communities.

If Puntland closes it's boarders and only conducts business with them, imagine the development they would reach.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Millions of dollars have been spend on Sool, Sanaag, Cayn and Somalia since 1998 and Puntland's people got nothing but insults and hate in return by those communities.

If Puntland closes it's boarders and only conducts business with them, imagine the development they would reach.

If PL lose SSC fully to SL, then it becomes irrelevant. Berbera will destroy Bosaso. SL would dwarf PL even more in revenue.

It’s PL which needs SSC more than the other way round.

 

[Dharbaaxo Jin]

Sxb, I have some random questions incoming, but do you believe in any form of Somaliweyn? (Somalis will be the majority ethnic group in Kenya and Ethiopia in 30-40 years, both regions in those countries have the right to secede.)

Somaliweyn was always a silly, naive pipedream. Somalis in the 50s & 60s bought into it because they were largely uneducated simple people.
Somalis have never been a united people. In fact, we have been the complete opposite. We have spent a large part of our history in tribal wars with eachother.
I believe Somaliweyn is a poisonous, destructive ideology. Its most fervent advocates are often fundamentalist qabiilist who use it as a weapon to advance their qabiil interest, nothing more.

Do you also think reconciliation in the future is possible?

No, I do not believe a reconciliation is possible unless there is a dramatic change in circumstances. I believe that the status quo will remain for a long time to come, Somaliland being a de fact independent state without international recognition.

if no do you accept SL being an economic region of 3 cities that still gets money from the Union but isn't taxed, while Awdal and SSC join the union.

I believe nothing of the sort. What you're spouting here is uninformed nonsense.

Somaliland gets zero from Somalia. It does not receive a penny of any money collected in Somalia. The only money that comes through Somalia, is aid from the International community specifically designated for Somaliland.
100% of Awdal and ~90% of Sool & Sanaag is under SL control. There is no such a thing as SSC.

 

[Dharbaaxo Jin]

Its fair to Say Daaroods will be taking the biggest L while Hawiye is unaffected(Laandheere iga dheh) and beesha Raxanweyne collecting the W. @Woke1.4rm.Shibis you gotta tell beesha RX to up their support for SL independence

They'll cry Somali unity till their blue in the face, but this is the underlying reason why the Jebertis are so anti-SL. They'd be relegated to also rans in every Somalia election, if 1m1v was instilled post-SL de jure independence.

 

[Ozark]

Millions of dollars have been spend on Sool, Sanaag, Cayn and Somalia since 1998 and Puntland's people got nothing but insults and hate in return by those communities.

If Puntland closes it's boarders and only conducts business with them, imagine the development they would reach.

Millions have not been spent, stop bullshitting.

You talk of development being reached without SSC when RIGHT now Puntland doesn't have a cent to their name and there are fights that happen in Bosaso with different factions against PL that live in that city!

Now say again SSC did something to PL delusional guy.

 

[Ozark]

if 1m1v was instilled post-SL de jure independence.

1m1v is possible. Not SL independence, that is impossible.

 

[anon2]

Somaliweyn was always a silly, naive pipedream. Our people in the 50s & 60s bought into it because they were largely uneducated simple people.

I believe Somaliweyn is a poisonous, destructive ideology. Its most fervent advocates are often fundamentalist qabiilist who use it as a weapon to advance their qabiil interest, nothing more.

The most staunch advocates of Somaliweyn were the educated people of the time from all clans, for example people like Cumar Carte Qaalib and many people from Woqooyi Galbeed still believed in long after the civil war. It's unfair to say that the idea is poisonous itself, but you could argue that certain individual used that idea for their qabils interests, the same way people use the idea of qabil today to further their own sub-clan or family interests.

Somalis have never been a united people. In fact, we have been the complete opposite. We have spent a large part of our history in tribal wars with eachother.

as were a lot of other groups, for example Otto von Bismarck united the various German waring German Kingdoms/Tribes when it was thought to be impossible. Somalis also united multiple times to fight against common enemies. Various sultanates still doesn't change the fact that we are in the end one people.

Somaliweyn was always a silly, naive pipedream. Our people in the 50s & 60s bought into it because they were largely uneducated simple people.

I believe Somaliweyn is a poisonous, destructive ideology. Its most fervent advocates are often fundamentalist qabiilist who use it as a weapon to advance their qabiil interest, nothing more.

Somaliland gets zero from Somalia.

I think you misunderstood what I said, it was a hypothetical scenario in which Somaliland is defacto independent like Vatican City with international recognition but receives money from Somalia and is not taxed. You still get to have your army, police, laws, airspace own currency etc however you get only 3 cities.

Either way, I think you would say no judging from your prior statements.

 

[Dharbaaxo Jin]

1m1v is possible. Not SL independence, that is impossible.

1m1v has not happened in Somalia for over 50 years. Somaliland has been independent for over 30 years. You are confusing independence and recognition again.

Come back to me when you understand the meaning of what you are talking about.

 

[Ozark]

1m1v has not happened in Somalia for over 50 years. Somaliland has been independent for over 30 years. You are confusing independence and recognition again.

Come back to me when you understand the meaning of what you are talking about.

Well I linked independence and recognition together.