Abdisamad
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NEWS US Ambassador to Somalia, Larry André, interviewed about Somaliland.
- Thread starter Thegoodshepherd
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- somaliland united states
31 years of lying to themselves should be painful for them tbh, Somaliland as a region is getting more chaotic and politically unstable by the day. Dhulbahante elders holding conferences more frequently every now and then clearly tells you the pending downfall of Jeegan admin in SSC. It's inevitable.
Re-read what you wrote then. I don't get why Somalis the use the wrong terminology.
I mean they sorta aren't lying to themselves. The Isaaqs want to get independence. It's just that their unconventional method of forcing others to push their notion is what reminds you of what MSB used to do.
You could use the same thing on Southerners where they believe in this Disneyland thing called Somali Federal Republic.
I dont get what you saying !!!. Just explain on what wrong terminology you mean?
Dont forget assassination non-stop in Lascanood. Its great sign that their time about to be finish.
Slap in the face to the SL pipedream, I just hope they don't waste any more time on this fantasy, I hope they come to comprehend they are hitting a wall and there is no way to go through beside coming in terms with Somalia's FGS in Mogdishu, unfortunately they will continue to be two rocks because they are just simply retarded community.
Muqadas is a Arabic word meaning Holy. You just said unity of Somalia as a country is Holy. Just doesn't make sense. That's all brother.
I see that with Reer Waqooyi too. Only the Quran is Muqadas. We should use alternative words and that in itself contradicts it's self since nothing is permanent in life.
Really interesting comment.
By stating Somaliland leaving and taking northern Dir is a good thing for Harti, you're also accepting that all Somaliland proper (including SL Harti) leaving is equally a good outcome for Hawiye who will dominate Somalia politically if Dhulbahante and Warsangali are gone with Isaaq and Dir.
What makes you think Hawiye will vote against their interest?
If Hawiye followed your logic, the best outcome for them is an independent Somaliland on the entire territory of the former Somaliland Protectorate that is dominated by Isaaq, and a Somalia sans northern Harti thats dominated by Hawiye.
Hawiye don’t know what is in their best interest, they are obsessed with keeping Mogadishu the political center of Somalis. When Hawiye were at their peak in 1991-1992, they could have broken somalia into 5 countries like Yugoslavia, and no one could have opposed them. The hopium of ruling a united Somalia prevents Hawiye from seeing what their true interests are.
Yeah, but if they actually realise whats in their interest, and agree to let Somaliland go as a whole unit, which a growing number of their intellectuals are starting to lean to, there is virtually very little for Darod to do to stop it.
In my opinion Hawiye today, particularly Hiraab, are way more pragmatic than you are suggesting, and they will chose to sign the divorce papers before accepting a compromised position in which Isaaq and Dir are gone but northern Harti remain with Somalia. There is no reason for them to accept that outcome, its self-harm.
On the other hand, they can create a country they completely dominate politically by supporting Somaliland's cause, this gives them a huge leverage on Darods.
I did the math using 2014 figures.
Share of population in united Somalia: Darod 27% Hawiye 28%
Share if all of British Somaliland were to secede: Darod 31% Hawiye 39%
Share if Dir Woqoyie only secede: Darod 36% Hawiye 37%
The secession of all of Somaliland or of just Dir Woqoyie would have a similar impact on Hawiye, its share would rise. Any secession is in the interest of Hawiye, all of British Somaliland leaving is only marginally better, only 2%, than Dir Woqoyie leaving and Harti Woqoyie staying.
The Darod share in Koonfur would rise in both cases, but Darod would be relatively smaller vis a vis Hawiye.
codewebsduh
VIP
Somaliland is arguably in a strong position. It should focus on economic/military growth instead of begging for international recognition.
Well if they strengthened economically and militarily then ictiraaf would arrive inevitably
I dont think these figures are correct since no census was done following the fall in 1991.
Colonial-era figures for Somalia put Hawiye as the largest clan at 35%, followed by Rahanweyn and Digil at 27% and then Darod at 22%. Similar figures were also produced by the civilian admin as well as the Kacaan regime. I suspect the ratios did not change much as they've endured the colonial era, the civilian era as well as the kacaan.
If you exclude Somaliland from the population Hawiye will be edging the 40%, Raxanweyn and Digil would come in 2nd and Darod would be a distant 3rd place.
Hawiye would monopolise Somalia's politics for ever. Nightmarish scenario for Darods who would become a minority.
If you follow social media, more Hawiye are waking up to this fact, I think the next few years will be very interesting.
bidenkulaha
GalYare
I am well aware Hawiye would comfortably dominate politics in a 1m1v election. We don’t even have to let SL secede. Just have talks for the foreseeable future while Somalia develops and we tighten our grip. SL borders including SSC won’t have 1m1v anyway till a compromise can be reached.
But the average Hawiye wants a united Somalia. You’ll never see a secessionist movement from within us given Xamar will be forever be a HAG city so no secession is in our benefit
Previous census data show if you include Isaaq, Dir would be the largest clan within the Somali Republic at close to 30% of the population. Hawiye would come 2nd at around 25%, followed by Raxanweyn/Digil and Darod. So Hawiye would not dominate 1m1v politics as they're no longer the largest clan within the unified country.
Military!!!. You know PL has war with them??
They are most likely made up. He has a tendency to make up stats and conjure up suugo science to support his Darood supremacy fantasy.
Also, his basic understanding of maths sucks. Even by his own likely made up stats, he considers Hawiye having an 8% advantage if all British Somaliland secedes to only be marginally better than having 1% advantage if only non-Harti SL secedes. This is a product of working back from his conclusion (non-Harti SL seceding would be better) to interpret the data.
The average Hawiye may want a united Somalia, but most of the ones I've met and many of those on TV, in Social media and in Politics, is either fine with SL seceding or does not care, especially HG. A small minority is as anti-SL as you.
The above is just my perception of things. I can't pretend to know the reality in Xamar and other Hawiye lands.
