US Ambassador to Somalia, Larry André, interviewed about Somaliland.

[Thegoodshepherd]

First of all you would think I had more bias towards Hawiye numbers wich would lead me in boosting them, I did not I was very rigorous and got same numbers as you. I would go as far as saying its your unadultered bias towards Darod blinding you, you seem to lack objectivity when it comes to your own clan.

There is no sign of district level data on UN sites. I checked it and surprise the district level data you linked is from 2005. Wich was deemed unreliable by the team doing 2014 estimations.
View attachment 230558

The bigger the Harti up north are the more ppl you will lose in balkanization scenario. I ran your own numbers(Note: quite biased figueres) and it put Darod in ItalianSL at 29.8% not 31%.

JL is very diverse and sparsely populated. Rx part of Gedo has thousands of villages on the rich farm lands of the East bank. Im supposed to believe these villages have less ppl than the arid and eroded side of Gedo with no sign of settlement beside few towns?

A major reason why the 2014 was done in the first place was to obtain detailed data that could then be used to create district level populations.

This is why the UNFPA went to great lengths to create thousands of small Enumeration Areas (EA)s, they wanted to be able to later calculate the population of each district.


That Marehan are the majority in Gedo, is exactly what I want you to believe. Dry and waterless Garbahaarey has more people than Luuq on Juba. In the same way that Bari has double the population of lush & green Middle Juba.

 

[Rationale]

A major reason why the 2014 was done in the first place was to obtain detailed data that could then be used to create district level populations.

View attachment 230747

This is why the UNFPA went to great lengths to create thousands of small Enumeration Areas (EA)s, they wanted to be able to later calculate the population of each district.


That Marehan are the majority in Gedo, is exactly what I want you to believe. Dry and waterless Garbahaarey has more people than Luuq on Juba. In the same way that Bari has double the population of lush & green Middle Juba.

Wabi Jubba's length is about 365km in Gedo region.

And for +95% of that length both banks look like this, full of farms. Im supposed to buy the Darod fairy tail of ghosts managing these lush farms.

While 90% of the Daarood side of Gedo looks like this.

No sign of human activity. But hey hundreds of thousand ppl are in the bushes cause mr paragon of objectivity @Thegoodshepherd said so.

I dont know where the Bari population hide but in Gedo its clear as a day where the bulk of the population live and its alongside the Jubba river.

 

[Kan'an]

Wabi Jubba's length is about 365km in Gedo region.
View attachment 230754
And for +95% of that length both banks look like this, full of farms. Im supposed to buy the Darod fairy tail of ghosts managing these lush farms.
View attachment 230755
While 90% of the Daarood side of Gedo looks like this.
View attachment 230756
No sign of human activity. But hey hundreds of thousand ppl are in the bushes cause mr paragon of objectivity @Thegoodshepherd said so.

I dont know where the Bari population hide but in Gedo its clear as a day where the bulk of the population live and its alongside the Jubba river.

The 2014 report says Gedo has one of the highest sample error rates in Somalia over 40% for rural population. This means +40% of the population of the whole region is disputed to even exist. It is even worse for the Nomadic population, going above 90%

People treat these reports like a census when it's a best guess estimate.

 

[Kan'an]

Speaking of Mudug and Gedo, we have the 1931 census to give us a rough beginning.
In 1931, Obbia and Rocca Littorio (Galkayo) combined were 60% Darod and 40% Hawiye. These two districts would later become the Mudug of today.

Darod's share of Mudug and its share of Gedo have only risen since then. Jariban and Galdogob alone have the same number of people as what was previously Obbia district and is today Hobyo and Xarardheere.

You got the same share for Hawiye because I limit my bias when calculating the populations of various clans by imposing rules and not deviating from them even when I don't like how things turn out. I don't lie to myself. I only deviate from my rule if I have some supplemental data that I can use.

You were trying to be be honest, but you went with what you felt was right, and ended up underestimating the Harti in Woqoyie by 35%.

@World numbers are actually an underestimate. I have Harti Woqoyie at 694,000.

Speaking of Mudug and Gedo, we have the 1931 census to give us a rough beginning.
In 1931, Obbia and Rocca Littorio (Galkayo) combined were 60% Darod and 40% Hawiye. These two districts would later become the Mudug of today.

Darod's share of Mudug and its share of Gedo have only risen since then. Jariban and Galdogob alone have the same number of people as what was previously Obbia district and is today Hobyo and Xarardheere.

You can download the district level data from 2014. File name is somalia-population-statistics 2014 Link

Oh, so when you deliberately overlook 2014 estimate saying south Mudug has more people than north Mudug based on your "rules" that is not bias? Dropping 2014 estimate and using 1931 census to support your argument is a glaring form of bias.

https://fsnau.org/downloads/FSNAU-Post-Deyr-2015-16-Food-Security-and-Nutrition-Analysis-Technical-Report.pdf

 

[Expo]

Hurt about what? I just didn’t read what you wrote as you showed you have no clue what you talking about.

Haye haye.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Oh, so when you deliberately overlook 2014 estimate saying south Mudug has more people than north Mudug based on your "rules" that is not bias? Dropping 2014 estimate and using 1931 census to support your argument is a glaring form of bias.

View attachment 231366

https://fsnau.org/downloads/FSNAU-Post-Deyr-2015-16-Food-Security-and-Nutrition-Analysis-Technical-Report.pdf

Galkacyo district is not 50-50. This division of the district’s total population is politically correct, but not accurate.