It will not be a sudden stop to the waters of the shabelle, but very gradual. Now the shabelle ends a couple of miles south of Qoryooley, in five years it may end at Qoryooley or even north of it. In 20 years it may terminate at Jowhar or Balcad rendering Lower Shabelle useless. By 2040, which is 24 years from now, Upper Hiraan maybe the only place in Somalia which gets any water from the shabelle.
We are talking about the economic heartland of Southern Somalia going dry. Mogadishu will lose substantial importance to Kismayo as fortunes shift to the Juba valley. Massive in-migration to Jubaland is sure to happenz as people move from Lower and Middle Shabelle to Lower and Middle Juba. Clan conflict of epic proportions because the people already in the Juba valley will not welcome the new arrivals. This could mean the start of a new civil war. This all greatly benefits Darod at everyone elses expense. Ethiopian development of the Shabelle valley in DDSI means increased economic power for the Darod, while the resulting exodus into Jubaland shifts development money and economic activity to Kismayo. The main challenge to Darod domination of this future Somalia is the minority groups along the Juba and their support for Alshabab. Darod must consolidate control over the Juba valley in the next decade, especially areas between Baardheere and Jamaame north of the river.