why do you think it was rushed? Because the general public would not have agreed to it. No one even understands what the deal entails. Imagine a random Turk coming to you to safe guard your coast knowing very well that you are sitting on trillion dollars of oil.
All we ever needed was to sign a deal with the big giant oil companies. The revenue FGS generates from it is enough to build a naval force with the latest state of the art weapons and equipments.
This is an embarrassing deal and HSM knows it hence keeping it secret and rushing it within 24 hours
You make good points and I get your concerns, but Turkey does not need our oil and gas in the same way most countries in the world do, as the largest new energy reserves in Europe are currently being discovered on a regular basis in Turkey
and by Turkish exploration companies, which are also worth trillions, such as the gas field in the Black Sea and the one billion of barrels of oil in the Sirnak province alone, yet in the last 5 years their daily production capacity has only doubled from 50 thousand barrels a day to 100 thousand barrels a day.
Somalia is expected to produce its first oil by the end of the year, but that doesnāt mean it will suddenly export one million barrels a day like the OPEC heavyweights or Russia, we will be lucky if we break the 50 to 100 thousand barrels a day threshold by the end of the decade. That would still mean $1.5 billion to $3 billion of extra income for the FGS a year, and if the energy reserves
are included in the Defense pact, Turkey would receive between $450 million to around $900 million a year, give or take from this deal. This would justify for them to pay the upfront costs of establishing an expensive navy the way they did for Turkmenistan, and train a large naval force, a considerable part of which they have already done in the last 5 years, on their own dime. This would also pay for all of the operational costs for their naval presence to protect Somali waters.
We should remember that this deal did not just drop out of the sky. The Farmaajo-Khayre administration had already offered this deal to Erdogan in 2020, and both groups were waiting for the arms-embargo to be lifted, but the UNSC kept extending the embargo year after year until the Farmaajo governmentās mandate had expired, yet the deal remained on the table when HSM came into office.
However, even three months ago when the embargo was lifted the political climate was completely different. HSM didnāt have to deal with an expansionist neighbour looking to annex a significant part of his country so boldly, in-fact majority of the so-called analysts said Abiy was targeting Eritrea, so there was no need to sign the pact. In the first half of his term HSM moved closer to other countries, only to brutally realise two years later that their interests were vastly different from his. Today the Somalia-Turkey Defense pact is a reality and operational largely because of what unfolded in the last month and a half, and the fact that it was rushed through so fast tells me that Somaliaās enemies were planning on doing something catastrophic and irreversible in the next two weeks but have been thwarted.
What will happen now is that Turkey will provide the FGS with an immediately available powerful naval component to secure its sovereign waters in the short term, and built its own navy in the long term. Somalia already signed deals with the BIGGEST oil companies in the world, none of them are willing to risk their talent and equipment in an uncertain environment regardless of the potential profits. A reality where Somaliaās waters are fully secure equals a major influx of Foreign Direct Investment.
Initially this will only cover the southern and central offshore Blue Economy of Somalia as Puntland and Somaliland will naturally protest any commercial activity in their waters but oil rigs will eventually land in their waters too, on their terms, once they see the profits coming from the rigs in the south and central regions, but make no mistake this deal prevents all military maritime activity by any country that is not approved by the FGS in Somali waters.
That is a major checkmate against the entities that were betting their future plans on Somaliaās EEZ being a no manās land. None of them have the capabilities to take on a top 10 NATO-tier Blue Water navy, so HSM has prevented a large chunk of his country being annexed in the short term and put the foundations in place for his successor to have a capable Somali Navy in the long term.
A Defense or Friendship pact can always be rescinded if the other party does not deliver on its promises, we saw this when Somalia kicked out the Soviet Union and all their assets reverted to Somali hands. The difference here being that Somalia is finally invoking its strategic location, natural resources and Blue Economy to its advantage, which makes it vastly more attractive than Ethiopia, even if the latter had a billion plus population.
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these two scenarios arenāt the same buddy.
