A Rational Solution to SL?

Helios

Trump 2020
VIP
Good thread @Helios

this is the only issue that has turned our two qabils against each other.
FKD aside we really don't have any problems with you MJs. Didn't fight each other in the civil war, nor have we had any historic enmity.

This border problem is the only sticking point. I see a reconciled PL & SL being on the same page in securing autonomy (and in our case looking for secession) from the FGS.
:yousmart:
 

Hayfever

Boqorka Beesha Haplogroup T.
There is absolutely a choice you dumb fuck, the only reason they’re with you now is because it benefits them and recognition is not on the cards anytime in the near or distant future
Why are you so triggered? I’m not the dhulbahante elders who bent their knees to the snm. If you want to free your people go remove your coward father, uncles and grandfathers who fear Isaaq reer Bari.

Until you do that accept the reality. You’re reer somaliland whether you like it or not!:fittytousand::fittytousand:
 
Why are you so triggered? I’m not the dhulbahante elders who bent their knees to the snm. If you want to free your people go remove your coward father, uncles and grandfathers who fear Isaaq reer Bari.

Until you do that accept the reality. You’re reer somaliland whether you like it or not!:fittytousand::fittytousand:
It’s SL that bends both knees for me and even bends over backwards

A sub-sub-sub-clan of Darood have you on the ropes making you pay them for support
:mjpls:
 
It’s SL that bends both knees for me and even bends over backwards

A sub-sub-sub-clan of Darood have you on the ropes making you pay them for support
:mjpls:
Things people say and do to convince themselves that they are winning is truly amazing. :williamswtf:
 
It’s SL that bends both knees for me and even bends over backwards

A sub-sub-sub-clan of Darood have you on the ropes making you pay them for support
:mjpls:
War ragga wax la qaybso instead of waiting for payment. All the aid money allocated for sool goes straight to hargeisa and garowe and your happy with the scraps. These niggas are robbing you blind :russ:
 

Hayfever

Boqorka Beesha Haplogroup T.
Wariya @Helios ada uu wacaan, eeg sida addoonka @Neron ah uu kicisay. :draketf:

If you want to emancipate your gadabursi slaves that’s your choice, but please leave my good hartis alone and don’t give them anymore uppity ideas.
 

Thegoodshepherd

Galkacyo iyo Calula dhexdood
Staff Member
Moderator
The funny thing is that the Warsangeli and Dhulbahante are actually growing faster than the Isaaq in Somaliland. They remain more rural and have higher fertility. The demographic predominance of the Isaaq is being eroded by about 1% per year. In 2005 Warsangeli and Dhulbahante were about 1/4 the size of Isaaq and by 2014 they were about 1/3 of Isaaq.

If the Isaaq continue to urbanize in Hargeisa and Burco, already 66% of all Isaaq live in one of these two districts, and the Harti population continues to grow, the Isaaq may lose their majority in former British Somaliland. If the Isaaq fall from their 60% today to under 50%, Somaliland as a political project becomes nonviable.
 

Sophisticate

Steel Magnolia
Staff Member
Moderator
Geopolitics isn't my forte so I won't be chiming in.
:sass2: I sparingly discuss two things on SSPot 1) FKD and 2) Tribal History.
 

kickz

Engineer of Qandala
VIP
Smart nigga but this Mr @Waaqooyi guy stole my pfp :icon e confused:


I want to hear from Gaddabursi though, @Sophisticate given the practical circumstances would you rather see Awdal as part of Djibouti or an exclave of Somalia?

:cosbyhmm:
Tldr (very rough map)
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Puntland imo should be taking the Harti districts of the SSC, it's a no brainer since the SSC is unconstitutional - barring an exception from the FMS like Galmudug got

If the SSC region negotiates a 50/50 sharing agreement with PL that would be up to them to decide but I don't want to force them to secede with Isaaqs if they choose not to

:wow1:
Nah, Awdal should stay in the union, they are diehard wadanis. :wow:
 
The funny thing is that the Warsangeli and Dhulbahante are actually growing faster than the Isaaq in Somaliland. They remain more rural and have higher fertility. The demographic predominance of the Isaaq is being eroded by about 1% per year. In 2005 Warsangeli and Dhulbahante were about 1/4 the size of Isaaq and by 2014 they were about 1/3 of Isaaq.

If the Isaaq continue to urbanize in Hargeisa and Burco, already 66% of all Isaaq live in one of these two districts, and the Harti population continues to grow, the Isaaq may lose their majority in former British Somaliland. If the Isaaq fall from their 60% today to under 50%, Somaliland as a political project becomes nonviable.
This is some first class suugo science and it’s truly amazing to witness. :drakekidding:
 

Thegoodshepherd

Galkacyo iyo Calula dhexdood
Staff Member
Moderator
This is some first class suugo science and it’s truly amazing to witness. :drakekidding:
I'm serious. Isaaq went from 67% of the population in 2005 to 60% in 2014. That is a relative decline of 7% in 9 years. The Isaaq population is growing, but not as fast as the Harti and Gadabursi. I did a deep dive into Somalia's population a while ago, I'm not pulling numbers out of thin air. The Harti and Gadabursi are each at 20%. If the Isaaq continued their relative decline after the 2014 estimate, they should now be at about 55% of the population of former British Somaliland.

The Isaaq simply took too long in getting serious about negotiating with Mogadishu on secession. 30 years later, the Isaaq are no longer 70% but 55%. Another 6 years, and all hopes of secession will be gone. I am not even sure that it will take until 2026 because growth differentials tend to snowball. Once Isaaq are below 50%, secession is off the table for good. What I find impressive is that the Isaaq were unable to convince the Hawiye of secession for 30 years. You could not convince the worst enemy of Darod that you share a common goal. What a disaster.

I suggest you download the file titled som_pplp_adm2.csvCSV and do your own calculations.
 
I'm serious. Isaaq went from 67% of the population in 2005 to 60% in 2014. That is a relative decline of 7% in 9 years. The Isaaq population is growing, but not as fast as the Harti and Gadabursi. I did a deep dive about a month ago into Somalia's population a while ago, I'm not pulling numbers out of thin air. The Harti and Gadabursi are each at 20%. If the Isaaq continued their relative decline after the 2014 estimate, they should now be at about 55% of the population of former British Somaliland.

The Isaaq simply took too long in getting serious about negotiating with Mogadishu on secession. 30 years later, the Isaaq are no longer 70% but 55%. Another 6 years, and all hopes of secession will be gone. I am not even sure that it will take until 2026 because growth differentials tend to snowball. Once Isaaq are below 50%, secession is off the table for good. What I find impressive is that the Isaaq were unable to convince the Hawiye of secession for 30 years. You could not convince the worst enemy of Darod that you share a common goal. What a disaster.

I suggest you download the file titled som_pplp_adm2.csvCSV and do your own calculations.
I look at the number and you still making wild assumptions of thinking that Isaaq are less then 70% of the population and Also majority of these clans are happy to be part of Somaliland and support the independence. I say that I see the facts o ground and they are all waving the flag.
 
isaaqs would never let maakhir,cyan or khatumo do their own self-determination. If every country listens to its minorities then we will have more then 500+ small countries around the globe.

We Hawiyes don't broader isaaqs so we care less. But SL is the new eritrea in the making. The cuqded ridden id**rs cant differentiate between Darod/MJ and the rest of Somalia.
I don't mind them cosplaying as sovereignty state for now. The min the south gets back on its feet they will either cut a deal or suffer the Western Sahara treatment.
 
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isaaqs would never let maakhir,cyan or khatumo do their own self-determination. If every country listens to its minorities then we will have more then 500+ small countries around the globe.

We Hawiyes don't broader isaaqs so we care less. But SL is the new eritrea in the making. The cuqded ridden id**rs cant differentiate between Darod/MJ and the rest of Somalia.
I don't mind them cosplaying as sovereignty state for now. The min the south gets back on its feet they will either cut a deal or suffer the Western Sahara treatment.
I usually have friendly chatter with hawiye members but you are very ignorant. If anyone is a minority anywhere it is you. Dhulbahante is one of the main Somali tribes, you don’t compare to us.

You say you don’t border Isaaq and don’t care about the north and then go ahead to blurt out complete nonsense which suggests you care enough to try to understand the power dynamics of the north.
 
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