What a joke. Cayr outnumber all MJs by themselves. Hawiye inside Somalia make up about 45% of the population. Only if you add Ethiopia and Kenya will Darods number closer to Hawiye.
ANALYSIS World Bank Somalia Urbanization report
- Thread starter Thegoodshepherd
- Start date
What a joke. Cayr outnumber all MJs by themselves. Hawiye inside Somalia make up about 45% of the population. Only if you add Ethiopia and Kenya will Darods number closer to Hawiye.
We'll see if you're right with the local elections they're next week if HY lose seats in Burco then your theory would be correct.
Woke1.4rm.Shibis
VIP
Hes propably trolling he cant be serious .
When some folks find out just yaqshid ,shibis and karaan has more population then the entire puntland they gona be super mad
Yusuf M
PuntExit
Please continue, Mr. Joker.
Ceyr more than all Mjs?
Reer mahad of Cumar maxamud are equal or probably more than ceyr. Them and another cumar maxamud subclan called Cabdi cisse are the only Mjs who see Hawiyes. The rest of us just hear of Hawiyes from the news.
The 2014 estimates shows north & south Mudug have about the same population. Bari & Nugaal are a bit bigger population than Hirashabille but add Galagadud into the mix and it tilts towards GM & HS favor.
South Mudug, Galgadud (minus Cabduwaaq), Hiraan & Shabille have population of 1.8 million more than Puntland's 1.5 million populating.
FSNAU-Post-Deyr-2015-16-Food-Security-and-Nutrition-Analysis-Technical-Report.pdf (ipcinfo.org)
That said I don't think any of the figures are accurate even in the report itself referenced conflicting figure by different sources. By that assumption a third of Mogadishu belongs to D&M since they flood the capital migrating from Bay, Bakool and Lower Shabille.
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ok and? a few subclans of sacad border mjs. the rest of HG hear about yall on the news as well lol.
u want me to post ur people in xamar? Galkayo is a big commercial city, there are a few small families doing business. MJ only fight sacad militias in that town no salebaan or cayr ever.
The UNFPA 2014 estimate is the most accurate measure of Somalia's population ever taken. It is probably more accurate the the government census of 1975. The margin of error was ~1.5-2%.
The UNFPA reapportioned the figures from 2014 in 2019 to account for difference in growth over those 5 years. So the same 12.3 million population figure is divided among the districts according to their current population. Download the excel file named "Somalia population gender and sex disaggregated 2019"
https://data.humdata.org/dataset/somalia-population-data
I am leaving Galkacyo district out of this discussion, although it is an MJ majority district. I divided Ceerigabo in 2 to get a number for the Isaaq.
The truth of the matter is that there are not enough Hawiye in Banadir, nor are there enough Isaaq in Hargeisa to outnumber all the non MJ Darod in Somalia. Banadir and Hargeisa are the two biggest districts in Somalia, but they are not big enough for a task that large.
The Darod are opening up a demographic gap between themselves and the Hawiye/Isaaq. The MJ are the slowest growing Darod subclan in Somalia. Warsangeli, Dhulbahante, Ogaden, and Marehan all have higher fertility rates than MJ. The gap is not that big in 2021, but it will be substantial in 2031.
Hawiye (outside of Banadir)
Majerten (outside Galkacyo)
Isaaq (outside Hargeisa)
Map of districts considered.
This is what the urbanization report you just posted says about 2014 UNFPA estimate
This is what the urbanization report you just posted says about 2014 UNFPA estimate
View attachment 186543
The numbers I'm using are the reapportioned figures that the UK's DFID completed in 2019. I'm using the estimate the report is talking about.
View attachment 186549
The numbers I'm using are the reapportioned figures that the UK's DFID completed in 2019. I'm using the estimate the report is talking about.
Maybe you're too daft to have understood the post so I'll write it out for you. It says
"ALL the existing estimates for current population are the result of projections from these estimates(2014 UNFPA) and result in large error margins. Among these estimates are the ones commissioned by DFID"
this includes what you posted, and what you considered
"..the most accurate measure of Somalia's population ever taken"
Your honesty slipped out in the above post. You made a correlation to the low domestic market access in puntland to not having a large concentration of people. This is what we've known all along. I won't dwell to much on this, but using your logic here, It's not a coincidence that this map of domestic market access correlates with Somalias pop density maps. Showing Isaaq, hawiye, and Rahanweyn regions as having a very high domestic market access(densely populated) with darood regions/settlements as having barely any concentration in domestic market access(low pop density). The similarities between the two maps is uncanny
What a retard. Do you know what the market access map is based on?
It is based on DFID’s 2019 population reapportionment!
You don't read mate
I'm amazed that you admit your own low population density based on these maps. Then try and pass those stats used to make these maps as authoritative, which the same report claims are fraudulent. Then when using your own admission of low density in Puntland , you say it's the DFID fraudulent stat. You're a walking contradiction mate. But I know why.
By admission of your own report it states many times that Population data is unreliable and the last published population census in Somalia was 1975. The 1975 census shows your region of Puntland as the least dense population in the former Somali Republic holding ~5% of The Somali Republics population. The same pattern was shown in all other censuses, 1931, 1953, 1963, 1975, 1980
1931
1953
1963
1975
1980
Keep shooting for the stars mate
Btw the 2014 PESS was certified by every government in Somalia, including Somaliland. Sacad Cali Shire, Somaliland's current Minister of Finance, who was at the time Somaliland's Minister of Planning signed off on the survey figures. Siciid Abdullahi Deni, Puntland's current president, and who was at the time the federal government's Minister of Planning also signed off on the survey.
This is why I don't take seriously anyone who questions the 2014 population estimate. Somali politicians at the highest level signed off on this estimate's results.
It was one of the most well done headcounts Somalia has ever had since 1960. The only census that comes close in quality is the 1931 Italian census but that was only for southern Somalia. The 1975 census and the 1980 projection based on it are a joke. The 1975 census was conducted during Abaarti Dabadheer, at a time when more than 70% of Somalia's population was nomadic.
This is why I don't take seriously anyone who questions the 2014 population estimate. Somali politicians at the highest level signed off on this estimate's results.
It was one of the most well done headcounts Somalia has ever had since 1960. The only census that comes close in quality is the 1931 Italian census but that was only for southern Somalia. The 1975 census and the 1980 projection based on it are a joke. The 1975 census was conducted during Abaarti Dabadheer, at a time when more than 70% of Somalia's population was nomadic.
