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Population of Burco and Bosaso doubled in 10 years!
How come the 2019 estimate don't grow in a similiar fashion? In 2025 can we expect close to 1 million in Bosaso?
World Bank Somalia Urbanization report
- Thread starter Thegoodshepherd
- Start date
Population of Burco and Bosaso doubled in 10 years!
How come the 2019 estimate don't grow in a similiar fashion? In 2025 can we expect close to 1 million in Bosaso?
The UNFPA 2014 estimate is the most accurate measure of Somalia's population ever taken. It is probably more accurate the the government census of 1975. The margin of error was ~1.5-2%.
The UNFPA reapportioned the figures from 2014 in 2019 to account for difference in growth over those 5 years. So the same 12.3 million population figure is divided among the districts according to their current population. Download the excel file named "Somalia population gender and sex disaggregated 2019"
https://data.humdata.org/dataset/somalia-population-data
I am leaving Galkacyo district out of this discussion, although it is an MJ majority district. I divided Ceerigabo in 2 to get a number for the Isaaq.
The truth of the matter is that there are not enough Hawiye in Banadir, nor are there enough Isaaq in Hargeisa to outnumber all the non MJ Darod in Somalia. Banadir and Hargeisa are the two biggest districts in Somalia, but they are not big enough for a task that large.
The Darod are opening up a demographic gap between themselves and the Hawiye/Isaaq. The MJ are the slowest growing Darod subclan in Somalia. Warsangeli, Dhulbahante, Ogaden, and Marehan all have higher fertility rates than MJ. The gap is not that big in 2021, but it will be substantial in 2031.
Hawiye (outside of Banadir)
View attachment 186536
Majerten (outside Galkacyo)
View attachment 186537
Isaaq (outside Hargeisa)
View attachment 186538
Map of districts considered.
View attachment 186539
You're moving in a weird way. The link has nothing to do with revised population for 2019 it sums different age groups and gender for every region.
The new revised version for 2019 redistributes more population to districts with larger urban centers. Mogadishu, Lascanood and Kismayo grow significantly in the past 5 years all other urban centers remain more or less the same. Total calculations in the link below are messed up so you need to do it manually one district at a time.
Still it is not enough to back your claim new figures shows that Bari has a population of 650k, Nugaal 336k and north Mudug (half of Galkacyo, Jariban and Galdgob) also about 336k so Puntland population still stands at 1.3 million
South Mudug (Half of Galkacyo, Hobyo, and Xaradhere) Galgaduud (minus Cabduwaaq) Hiraan and Shabille are about 1.6 million
The biggest increase in urban centers was recorded in Banadir at 3.4 million inhabitants and even that number is disputed since there is no breakdown for each district. Lascanood is understandable due to large nomad population urbanizing quickly so is Kismayo with all IDP's & refugees from Kenya moving inside the city past 5 years. Everywhere else it is the same 0-10% differential either directions compared to 2014.
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Some xabashis killed somalis so what? how does this in any way shape or form help you?Didn't your ceyr tribe get genocided by Liyuu couple years ago
You man are talking about MJ all of harti is smaller than just abgaal. If more land = more people than today Russia would have more people than China which isn’t the case
With other Harti in Sool Sanaag & Buuhoodle it adds around 700k so all Harti in Somalia number over +2 million.
also the political situation in Somalia wouldn't be the way it is. Its all hogwash and pseudoscience even the CIA factbook has hawiye making up more of somalia than any other group.
"The 1975 census and the 1980 projection based on it are a joke"
I've heard it all from you mate. In every thread it's a diff excuse "In 1950s and 1960s census our people were in xamar so our regional pop was small, in 1975 dabadheer drought so our regional pop was small". Don't you have some shame
1975 was the last published census and even the report you posted points to the fact that 1975 is the last benchmark of an official published census that we have. The header in this report itself mentions very clearly that Population data remains unreliable
As mentioned in the report of your original post, this UNFPA 2014 survey is utter bullshit, and does not consist of minor irregularities that can be glossed over, but "Large error margins"
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Dont forget this"The 1975 census and the 1980 projection based on it are a joke"
I've heard it all from you mate. In every thread it's a diff excuse "In 1950s and 1960s census our people were in xamar so our regional pop was small, in 1975 dabadheer drought so our regional pop was small". Don't you have some shame
1975 was the last published census and even the report you posted points to the fact that 1975 is the last benchmark of an official published census that we have. The header in this report itself mentions very clearly that Population data remains unreliable
View attachment 186584
As mentioned in the report of your original post, this UNFPA 2014 survey is utter bullshit, and does not consist of minor irregularities that can be glossed over, but "Large error margins"
View attachment 186580
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The large error margins are referring to estimates of existing population figures from a decade later based on the survey not the Survey itself."The 1975 census and the 1980 projection based on it are a joke"
I've heard it all from you mate. In every thread it's a diff excuse "In 1950s and 1960s census our people were in xamar so our regional pop was small, in 1975 dabadheer drought so our regional pop was small". Don't you have some shame
1975 was the last published census and even the report you posted points to the fact that 1975 is the last benchmark of an official published census that we have. The header in this report itself mentions very clearly that Population data remains unreliable
View attachment 186584
As mentioned in the report of your original post, this UNFPA 2014 survey is utter bullshit, and does not consist of minor irregularities that can be glossed over, but "Large error margins"
View attachment 186580
I sometimes begin to believe that the 68 IQ thing is real. How can you graduate from high school in th the West and fail to understand something so simple?
Hada he thinks he is making a good argument.
You're not bright at all mate.
Tell me what this example states
A complete overestimation in this town. They clearly stated in this document that the population figures are unreliable but you lot clinch to it for obvious reasons
As I mentioned before, they even point to 1975 as being the last published reliable census for Somali Republics population. That 1975 census just like the one in the 1930s, 50s, and 60s, was a census and not an estimation, they all showed the constant truth, that Puntland had the lowest population density in the former Somali Republic, sitting at ~5% of the total population. There's no way to get around this one
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There's overestimation in this Somaliland town too, you left that out.You're not bright at all mate.
Tell me what this example states
View attachment 186643
A complete overestimation in this town. They clearly stated in this document that the population figures are unreliable but you lot clinch to it for obvious reasons
As I mentioned before, they even point to 1975 as being the last published reliable census for Somali Republics population. There's no way to get around this one
No, you tried to make it look like the Puntland numbers was making it unreliable. That's why you cut out the Somaliland portion. If there's overestimation in each area, it negates any accusations of bias. You are not different from your own minister who claimed the survey said Bosaso is more populated than Hargeisa. I wonder if you guys even read what you are talking about. He ended up endorsing it afterwards.Thanks for Adding to my point of this complete overestimation and unreliable data
to
Sidoo kale, waxa uu sheegay in sahankan mala awaalka ee Hay’adda UNFPA samaysay uu gaar u ahaa Somaliland, isla markaana ay la shaqaysay wasaaradda qorsheynta Somaliland, taas oo ay ula jeedeen sidii loo ogaan lahaa xogta dadweynaha ku nool Somaliland.
“Wasaaradda Qorshaynta Somaliland iyo hay’adda Jimciyadda Quruumaha ka dhaxaysa ee UNFPA ayaa iska kaashaday Sahan loogu kuur-galayo tirada shacabka ku nool Somaliland sannadkii 2013-kii,” ayaa lagu yiri qoraal ka soo baxay wasaaradda Qorsheynta Somaliland oo ku saxeexan yahay wasiirka wasaaradaasi Sacad Cali Shire.
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You're not bright at all mate.
Tell me what this example states
View attachment 186643
A complete overestimation in this town. They clearly stated in this document that the population figures are unreliable but you lot clinch to it for obvious reasons
As I mentioned before, they even point to 1975 as being the last published reliable census for Somali Republics population. That 1975 census just like the one in the 1930s, 50s, and 60s, was a census and not an estimation, they all showed the constant truth, that Puntland had the lowest population density in the former Somali Republic, sitting at ~5% of the total population. There's no way to get around this one
lmfao. literally 2 huts and they said 90 people
Bari has a lower coefficient of variation (a measure of the precision of the count) than Woqoyie Galbeed or Togdheer.
The 2014 count is more reliable than anything that came before it.
It's definitely reliable. Somaliland's minister Sacad Cali Shire's only problem with the final survey was that the data was shared with the federal government. I hope @Wir can change his mind like the minister.
You must be another daft one, when I say the UNFPA 2014 data is unreliable it's obviously the entire report. But sensitivity got to you so you argued against the 2014 estimate along with me by bringing the Same example as I did, for another village. Then you go on to support your desert dwelling brother when he claims
It's easy to win when you argue and provide evidence against your own report
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