Tigray show of force to Abiye

[tyrannicalmanager]

Ok, but these are not "jailing thousands of political activists". OLF was split into two and one of the faction is officially waging armed war against the state. So if you declare war on the state to achieve your goal using violent means then don't cry and complain when the state also responds accordingly. These can never be political activists.

In case of ONLF I also heard that incident and I agree that should have never happened but these seems to me few incidents and can never be described as "jailing thousands of political activists".

The jailing of thousands of hooligans started when the looting, killing and burning started. When the looting starts the shooting and mass jailing also starts . And that is absolutely OK!

i don't understand why you're still misqouting, i said before the riots happened political activist were stillbeing arested. i literally said a few of them were ONLF yet you read and think and say: "yeah that but that was a rare occurance and not thousands of political prisoners"
of course they're that why i said a few.

 

[mustang22]

Once Egypt builds their military base in Eritrea, it will be the end of Ethiopia and Somaliweyn will happen.

 

[FiftyPence]

Those who you call thousands of political prisoners have massacred civilians, burned and vandalized private properties, attacked civilians based on ethnicity or religion, attacked churches etc. These are documented cases even by oromo private media and also international media. Committing crimes against civilians and hiding under "thousand of political activist" doesn't work. Thousand of political activists should just conduct a peaceful demonstration which no one is preventing in today's Ethiopia.

The biggest criminal in Ethiopia is the government, What a stupid statement to make. It’s like the George Floyd situation in Minnesota. You step on people’s necks and then wonder why they are so angry.

 

[FiftyPence]

Ok, but these are not "jailing thousands of political activists". OLF was split into two and one of the faction is officially waging armed war against the state. So if you declare war on the state to achieve your goal using violent means then don't cry and complain when the state also responds accordingly. These can never be political activists.

In case of ONLF I also heard that incident and I agree that should have never happened but these seems to me few incidents and can never be described as "jailing thousands of political activists".

The jailing of thousands of hooligans started when the looting, killing and burning started. When the looting starts the shooting and mass jailing also starts . And that is absolutely OK!

I don’t know why you portray the Ethiopian government has all good and dandy. I genuinely believe your paid to lurk around Somalis and convince us of this greater Ethiopia bullshit. You seem to be only in threads about Ethiopian, why don’t you go to Ethiopian forums where they speak about that most often. Wierd.

And as for the government, they committed tremendous heinous crimes against many of its citizens.

“So if you declare war on the state to achieve your goal using violent means then don't cry and complain“

So this statement doesn’t really make any sense. Don’t get me started on Ogadania prison.

Everything you need to know about human rights in Ethiopia | Amnesty International

Every year, Amnesty International evaluates the human rights situation in countries around the world. Stay up to date and learn about key human rights issues in Ethiopia

www.amnesty.org

Here are many articles in Amnesty website. Binge on it if you will.

 

[The_memesiah9]

May Allah give us strength, a people of only 8 million had divided us, they aint nothing compared to our numbers and what we have. Ethiopia is dysfunctional. No ethnic group can go toe to toe with us.

 

[purple haze]

It benefits Tigrayans to get the election confrontation with Addis Ababa as bad and violent as possible. Then Tigray region has a chance to become the second instance of Eritrea.

What Abiy has is his good image in the West. Tigrayans are trying to trigger him and destroy that image.

It is highly likely Ethiopia is getting into a protracted conflict that might outlive Abiy's reign and eventually discharge itself into full scale Tigray independence war.

SO WILL THE TIGRAY BREAK OFF AND JOIN ERITRIEA ? OR BECOME ITS OWN COUNTRY

 

[purple haze]

Few weeks ago when some oromo hooligans were destroying properties and vandalizing after the killing of a well known oromo artist, many here went bananas telling us that Ethiopia is about to collapse and civil war is gonna start soon and what not.


I told them that I am confident that the security forces will bring the chaos under control very fast. And they did in 3 days. Now internet is open and no uprising or civil war, not even remotely. Wishful thinking can never replace an "objective" analyzing of reality by taking as many parameters as possible.

FIX YOUR AIDS PROBLEM IN YOUR COUNTRY AND FIX THE UNDER AGE PROSTITUTION FUCKING PATHETIC

 

[Octavian]

SO WILL THE TIGRAY BREAK OFF AND JOIN ERITRIEA ? OR BECOME ITS OWN COUNTRY

yes

 

[AbdiGeedi]

SO WILL THE TIGRAY BREAK OFF AND JOIN ERITRIEA ? OR BECOME ITS OWN COUNTRY

It is a million dollar question and largely depends on the success rate of the national identity forging in the post-independence Eritrea.

About 55% percent of Eritreans are the Tigrayans who are overwhelmingly Christian with a tiny minority practicing Islam (Jeberti). The Tigrayans are about 3 million strong in Eritrea.

Do the Tigrayans consider themselves to be one nationality with Tigre, who are 95% Muslims, and other smaller groups in Eritrea or prefer to foster closer ties with the Tigrayans in the Tigray region of Ethiopia?

It is worth noting that the decades long Eritrean independence movement only succeeded after the TPLF came to power in Addis Ababa and the removal of the Amhara despot, Mengistu Haile Mariam. The TPLF was helped by the large contingence of the Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF) to take control of the Ethiopian capital. I am guessing that some sort of understanding between the Tigrayans has always existed.

Let's also mention the TPLF is very methodical and think/plan ahead of time.

This is from 1979:

After coming to power in 1991 in Ethiopia, the TPLF implemented ethno-linguistic federalization of Ethiopia, thus, creating the modern Tigray region.

And now the TPLF is implementing its political program from 1979!

So, the unity with Eritrea is not on the map for the TPLF. Even if the Eritrean Tigrayans are in power in Eritrea, the Tigrayan elite would not want to lose their grip to the TPLF on the other side of the border and vise versa.

But, in the event if by some miracle the Tigrayans unite and form one country between the Tigray region and Eritrea, it will be a bad development for the Tigre who are Muslim and constitute 30% of Eritrean population. They historically suffered from prosecution at the hands of the Christian Habashis. The Tigrayan unity might trigger a split within Eritrea.

Obviously the Tigray region and Eritrea share the border and Eritrea gives the quickest sea access to the Tigray region.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

This xabashi guy is very disillusioned he lives in his own cocoon thinking that Amhara privilege will be reinstated.

No Erhiopian will allow a filthy mindset like Naftanyas to come back to power.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

This xabashi guy is very disillusioned he lives in his own cocoon thinking that Amhara privilege will be reinstated.

1991 is the year Amharas got sidelined. They had to tolerate the Tigrayan rule till 2018 and now the Oromo rule. Amharas might as well seek their own independence since Oromos are not going anywhere and will only expand. The con of acting from behind can last only so long. Oromos will get smarter and call the Amhara manipulations out.

Amharas had 27 years to prepare for the comeback only to lose again this time to Oromos.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

1991 is the year Amharas got sidelined. They had to tolerate the Tigrayan rule till 2018 and now the Oromo rule. Amharas might as well seek their own independence since Oromos are not going anywhere and will only expand. The con of acting from behind can last only so long. Oromos will get smarter and call the Amhara manipulations out.

Amharas had 27 years to prepare for the comeback only to lose again this time to Oromos.

They amhara believe that Abye is their ticket to getting back their amhara privilege they lost.

In fact these idiots are the once that were so greedy and plotted day and night to dismantle their monarch.

Haile Selasie gave them Amhara privilege that they were given subsidies to settle in other peoples land.

It was educated wealthy class of Amharas in Addis Ababa that organised protests and the purge of his trusted ministers and Lieutenants.When the Monarch became a shell they used Baria Mengistu to topple Haile Selasie thinking they would easily remove him and reclaim power.But Mengistu became a thorn in the flesh and he started purging Amhara elites one after the other that's what led to the great exodus of Amharas to USA especially Washington DC.

So Amhara think they can fool Abye and galvanise power using the rift between Abye and Oromos and then purge out Abye and his Oromo left overs(OPDO) from Arat Kilo.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

I am starting to suspect that the US is involved in the Kerro uprising.
The mission is to dislodge China from Ethiopia.

China is a security threat to the interest of US.The US might be using Jawar to reach its goal as Abye has failed to kick out Chineese.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

So Amhara think they can fool Abye and galvanise power using the rift between Abye and Oromos and then purge out Abye and his Oromo left overs(OPDO) from Arat Kilo.

I wonder who is really behind the reforms in Ethiopia. When I first heard about an Oromo becoming the PM of Ethiopia, I thought it was odd. After all the political climate in Ethiopia has always been turned into and kept as a violent cesspool of the Habashis (Amharas and Tigrayans). Later I learned both Abiy's mother and wife are Amharas. I think true Oromo awakening will come when Abiy leaves. Think of Jawar. For now it is just a prelude of things to come. Besides, Abiy's hands are tied into this image of a peace-maker and a Nobel Prize winner. I am pretty sure there are few people Abiy wants to bıtch-slap in Addis Ababa but he can't.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

As I said earlier the TPLF is skillful and thinks ahead. Abiy might be walking into a trap aimed at destroying his image.

@Ayubi posted this link to the drums of war tweet in another thread.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

I think Abiy might deal with the Tigray elections the way Sisi dealt with the GERD dam. Make threats but not follow through with them.

The TPLF is clearly loaded and ready to confront Addis Ababa. Abiy might come out from the fraca with a bloody nose if he decides to step in Tigray.

 

[xabashi]

This thread is filled with too many suugo analysts (sometimes based on very outdated views/realities, past glories etc.) with no clue about the current inner workings of the Ethiopian state and are full of speculation.

Of course no one can predict the future but honestly for TPLF I see only one of the following two options:

1. TPLF hardliners get the upper hand and go to war against the federal government and will be beaten badly because of so many parameters on the ground. Only fools will equate the would be war of hardliners with the fed to that of the armed struggle some 28 years ago. The cause for war and the realities on the ground have changed massively.

2. TPLF moderates (the likes of Tigray president) get the upper hand and work secretly with the fed and handover the hardliners to the fed authorities and make peace with the fed. PM Abiy in his last interview encouraged Tigray youth to support Tigray president and the moderates. Oppositions inside Tigray are telling us the moderate Tigray president is now almost under house arrest by the hardliners. He also refused to attend the above military parade and deliver speech as he always does. It is likely that the moderates will cooperate with the fed and get the few hardliner mafias arrested by the fed.

Let's wait and see what would happen in few months time. Honestly I give the hardliners inside TPLF not more than few months. Now you may don't like my assessment and go mad or resort to insults. My only reply is bear with me few months . Anyway, I am done here.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

@xabashi

It is hard to take you serious when you call people protesting injustice the hooligans.

The truth is what Abiy is doing to Tigray has been done before to Eritrea by Selassie. Just re-read your second point and compare to this:

In the 1950s, Emperor Haile Selassie and his supporters worked hard to eliminate any traces of demands for self-rule in Eritrea and, to that end, they harassed the leaders of the independence movement, a similar act to what Ethiopia’s federal government is currently doing. Furthermore, the Emperor forged a collaboration with unionist allies in Eritrea and suppressed attempts to form autonomous Eritrean organizations, which is analogous with the current encouragement Tigray opposition parties are getting.

Guys, there is an excellent article published by Ethiopia Insight covering the present situation and drawing historical parallels. It is worth reading. Abiy is not a political angel like he wants to be seen.

Abiy Ahmed must draw lessons from the failed Ethio-Eritrean federation - Ethiopia Insight

Further federal government encroachment on Tigray's autonomy could eventually lead to the loss of another northern province.

www.ethiopia-insight.com