Tigray show of force to Abiye
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He already lost the Oromos, this could get ugly for him
Itoobiya ha burburto sxb.
tyrannicalmanager
pseudo-intellectual
everyone exposing amharas lately.
imagine constantly hoping and beging for foreigners to invade colonize your enemies land and regconise your petty dynasty for return.
xabastoo here this is nothing as Aby who is deffo not my overlord or something has everything in control and all is well. these Tigrays are simply showing their love for ethipoia and nothing more
AbdiGeedi
To keep your balance, you must keep moving.
It benefits Tigrayans to get the election confrontation with Addis Ababa as bad and violent as possible. Then Tigray region has a chance to become the second instance of Eritrea.
What Abiy has is his good image in the West. Tigrayans are trying to trigger him and destroy that image.
It is highly likely Ethiopia is getting into a protracted conflict that might outlive Abiy's reign and eventually discharge itself into full scale Tigray independence war.
What Abiy has is his good image in the West. Tigrayans are trying to trigger him and destroy that image.
It is highly likely Ethiopia is getting into a protracted conflict that might outlive Abiy's reign and eventually discharge itself into full scale Tigray independence war.
how do u think this will effect somalia and ogaden
AbdiGeedi
To keep your balance, you must keep moving.
The Tigray departure will embolden Oromos. I am not sure if Amhara can find another Amhara-obeying Oromo like Abiy among Oromos and continue with the con once his time is up.
Somali region might end up just like the most of the Soviet republics that became independent because the Slavic members of the USSR got into a tussle and broke up the union. In case of Ethiopia it is the tussle between Habashis (Tigray and Amhara).
The real question is: How far does the TPLF wants to go?
1. Get back into being in power in Addis Ababa?
2. Be left alone and exercise de facto Tigray self-rule within Ethiopia?
3. Seek the full independence?
I believe option one has passed. Oromos won't agree to it.
Option two is the actual stage at the moment.
Option three is a possibility if things go to shit.
they won't do shit pharao siserona is not capable of supporting anybody in that regionThe developments to this will be interesting. Will Egypt keep their word if Ethiopia enter into a full blown civil war or will they pull a 77 and arm the other regions to enflame the situation.
AMISOM moving to Ethiopia makes sense in this context, time to rename them AMI(E)OM
AbdiGeedi
To keep your balance, you must keep moving.
It is a big development. I am still waiting for confirmation from AMISOM itself. The publication is a legit one though.
I don't believe the US/EU and Russia would agree to Ethiopia's break-up. There will be a lot of pressure from abroad on Habashis to bury their egos.
The US is even working in the Somali Parliament to lobby its agenda. By the looks of it, the meat and bone of Somali policy making is being shaped by the US and Turkey. The Gulf countries are viewed in Somalia by en large as the dudes who won the lottery and can be used for money.
The US diplomats have frantically tried to save Kheyre, even going as high as the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. As you said the Horn is becoming a geopolitical center stage now.
Not much has been heard from Hassan Ali Khaire since he was forced to resign on 25 July after a near-unanimous parliamentary vote of censure. The same cannot be said for the top US and EU diplomats in Mogadishu, Donald Yamamoto and Nicolas Berlanga. They took their concerns to as high as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Brussels' High Representative Josep Borrell who expressed their disappointement regarding the vote, pointing at irregularities and constitutional lacunae.
Staff of US development consultancy Chemonics, although present in the corridors of the House of the People - the lower chamber of Somalia's parliament - failed to win MPs over to the two western diplomats' point of view.
I also think Abiy's recent visit to Eritrea was an attempt to forestall a possible arms transfers from Egypt to Tigray through Eritrea. Sisi can't do it through Sudan due the animosities between the two. Also notice how hyper-reactive Ethiopia is to the idea of the Egyptian base in Somaliland. Abiy is sending a permanent envoy to Somaliland because of the base issue.
And Biixi who was dissing Turkey's participation in the Somalia-Somaliland talks, all of sudden sends the SL delegation to Turkey for negotiations. There are a lot of geopolitical movements in the Horn lately.
SOMALIA : Ousting of PM Khaire deprives US and EU of key ally - 30/07/2020 - Africa Intelligence
Hassan Ali Khaire, who resigned under duress as Somalia's prime minister on 25 July, was western diplomats' main point of contact in Farmajo's government. - 7/30/2020
Marshall D Abdi
Know you’re place peasant
Why is sland sending envoys to turkey why all of sudden major things r happening in the hornIt is a big development. I am still waiting for confirmation from AMISOM itself. The publication is a legit one though.
I don't believe the US/EU and Russia would agree to Ethiopia's break-up. There will be a lot of pressure from abroad on Habashis to bury their egos.
The US is even working in the Somali Parliament to lobby its agenda. By the looks of it, the meat and bone of Somali policy making is being shaped by the US and Turkey. The Gulf countries are viewed in Somalia by en large as the dudes who won the lottery and can be used for money.
The US diplomats have frantically tried to save Kheyre, even going as high as the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. As you said the Horn is becoming a geopolitical center stage now.
Not much has been heard from Hassan Ali Khaire since he was forced to resign on 25 July after a near-unanimous parliamentary vote of censure. The same cannot be said for the top US and EU diplomats in Mogadishu, Donald Yamamoto and Nicolas Berlanga. They took their concerns to as high as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Brussels' High Representative Josep Borrell who expressed their disappointement regarding the vote, pointing at irregularities and constitutional lacunae.
Staff of US development consultancy Chemonics, although present in the corridors of the House of the People - the lower chamber of Somalia's parliament - failed to win MPs over to the two western diplomats' point of view.
I also think Abiy's recent visit to Eritrea was an attempt to forestall a possible arms transfers from Egypt to Tigray through Eritrea. Sisi can't do it through Sudan due the animosities between the two. Also notice how hyper-reactive Ethiopia is to the idea of the Egyptian base in Somaliland. Abiy is sending a permanent envoy to Somaliland because of the base issue.
And Biixi who was dissing Turkey's participation in the Somalia-Somaliland talks, all of sudden sends the SL delegation to Turkey for negotiations. There are a lot of geopolitical movements in the Horn lately.
SOMALIA : Ousting of PM Khaire deprives US and EU of key ally - 30/07/2020 - Africa Intelligence
Hassan Ali Khaire, who resigned under duress as Somalia's prime minister on 25 July, was western diplomats' main point of contact in Farmajo's government. - 7/30/2020www.africaintelligence.com
AbdiGeedi
To keep your balance, you must keep moving.
One possibility is that Biixi is now realizing that he is getting into the geopolitical game that is way over his head. He is trying to improve the Somaliland's ties with Turkey just in case, especially after seeing Ethiopia and Turkey are getting closer.
Turkey/Ethiopia combination can turn out to be deadly for him.
No one really knows what TPLF is trying to achieve by gathering its kilil leyou militia in Mekele stadium during corona pandemic.
Everybody in Ethiopia knows every kilil has its own leyou militia at least > 35k etc. Amhara, Somali, Oromia etc. Everybody has it but wtf is TPLF trying to achieve by gathering them with their AK-45 in a stadium? Does TPLF want to scare the well equipped Ethiopian Army with this militias? Serious?
We all know how Abdi Iley's leyou militia ended up when the Army showed up. These militias were trained to quell civil uprisings and look like lions in front of civilians but are no match to the well equipped Army. Believe me if these militias step one foot out of the tigray region, the Army will wipe them out in weeks.
The absence of all top TPLF officials including the tigray president is also very weird. Normally, all top TPLF officials will attend this kind of gatherings and deliver speech but this time everyone of them is absent.
It looks to me that TPLF is worried by the latest visit of PM Abiy to Eritrean military training facilities but don't know what to do about it. It seems also that the leadership is divided on what to do and how to precede with this challenge. It is likely that this militia parade was organized by the hardliners in the TPLF without the consent of the moderate president. Tigray opposition are telling us that the moderate president doesn't control everything in Tigray because of the influence of the hardliners that control most of the security apparatus in Tigray.
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And btw, all those here talking about tigray independence blah blah. You make me really laugh. How many times do I need to tell you that as long as TPLF is in power, Tigray will never become independence. Don't project your wishes on Tigray. TPLF media is most of the time attacking PM Abiy of trying to forcing and trick Tigray into independence. They accuse him of wishing Tigray declare independence. They also accuse him of selling Ethiopian national interest to Egypt by negotiating with Egypt. Does this sound like an organization that wants independence?
And finally, Tigray gets more than 50% of its budget from the federal government. Besides the overwhelming majority of Tigreans see themselves as Ethiopians and see any attempt of independence as a trick to isolate Tigray and destroy it economically.
Honestly, Tigray will not declare independence even if Ethiopia declares war on Tigray. TPLF is all about how it can came back to the federal power. It is obsessed with getting back to Addis Ababa. Everything it does has only one and one aim. Coming back to the federal power.
And finally, Tigray gets more than 50% of its budget from the federal government. Besides the overwhelming majority of Tigreans see themselves as Ethiopians and see any attempt of independence as a trick to isolate Tigray and destroy it economically.
Honestly, Tigray will not declare independence even if Ethiopia declares war on Tigray. TPLF is all about how it can came back to the federal power. It is obsessed with getting back to Addis Ababa. Everything it does has only one and one aim. Coming back to the federal power.
xabastoo here this is nothing as Aby who is deffo not my overlord or something has everything in control and all is well. these Tigrays are simply showing their love for ethipoia and nothing more
Few weeks ago when some oromo hooligans were destroying properties and vandalizing after the killing of a well known oromo artist, many here went bananas telling us that Ethiopia is about to collapse and civil war is gonna start soon and what not.
I told them that I am confident that the security forces will bring the chaos under control very fast. And they did in 3 days. Now internet is open and no uprising or civil war, not even remotely. Wishful thinking can never replace an "objective" analyzing of reality by taking as many parameters as possible.
