Tigray show of force to Abiye

[Octavian]

And btw, all those here talking about tigray independence blah blah. You make me really laugh. How many times do I need to tell you that as long as TPLF is in power, Tigray will never become independence. Don't project your wishes on Tigray. TPLF media is most of the time attacking PM Abiy of trying to forcing and trick Tigray into independence. They accuse him of wishing Tigray declare independence. They also accuse him of selling Ethiopian national interest to Egypt by negotiating with Egypt. Does this sound like an organization that wants independence?



And finally, Tigray gets more than 50% of its budget from the federal government. Besides the overwhelming majority of Tigreans see themselves as Ethiopians and see any attempt of independence as a trick to isolate Tigray and destroy it economically.

Honestly, Tigray will not declare independence even if Ethiopia declares war on Tigray. TPLF is all about how it can came back to the federal power. It is obsessed with getting back to Addis Ababa. Everything it does has only one and one aim. Coming back to the federal power.

in conclusion everything is fine and well

 

[xabashi]

in conclusion everything is fine and well

Far from that. There is a big disagreement, even a war of words between TPLF and the federal government. TPLF doesn't get it that the game is over and it is no more the boss. It just doesn't know how to handle the new reality. What I am saying is that Tigray independence is not even an issue between the fed and TPLF but still the confrontation may end up in a military confrontation that will end the fate of TPLF. Another option is that the moderate inside TPLF will work with the fed and hand over the radicals to the fed authorities and make peace with the fed. The least likely scenarios are Tigray declaring independence and TPLF ousting PM Abiy and coming back to federal power.

 

[tyrannicalmanager]

Few weeks ago when some oromo hooligans were destroying properties and vandalizing after the killing of a well known oromo artist, many here went bananas telling us that Ethiopia is about to collapse and civil war is gonna start soon and what not.


I told them that I am confident that the security forces will bring the chaos under control very fast. And they did in 3 days. Now internet is open and no uprising or civil war, not even remotely. Wishful thinking can never replace an "objective" analyzing of reality by taking as many parameters as possible.

you don't shut down internet and imprison thousand of political activist because a bunch of hooligans chimped out.
no amount of damage control is going convince me or this site that your house isn't burning.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

TPLF is all about how it can came back to the federal power. It is obsessed with getting back to Addis Ababa. Everything it does has only one and one aim. Coming back to the federal power.

Your above statement doesn't make much sense since Keria Ibrahim, the speaker of the Upper House of the Ethiopean Parliament, has resigned a month ago and retreated to Tigray. She is a top official in TPLF. They would not have relinquished such a powerful position in Addis Ababa if they wanted to cling to the federal power.

I get it. You are an Amhara with agenda, but please do not lie to us.

 

[Octavian]

Far from that. There is a big disagreement, even a war of words between TPLF and the federal government. TPLF doesn't get it that the game is over and it is no more the boss. It just doesn't know how to handle the new reality. What I am saying is that Tigray independence is not even an issue between the fed and TPLF but still the confrontation may end up in a military confrontation that will end the fate of TPLF. Another option is that the moderate inside TPLF will work with the fed and hand over the radicals to the fed authorities and make peace with the fed. The least likely scenarios are Tigray declaring independence and TPLF ousting PM Abiy and coming back to federal power.

why can't they oust abiy it shouldn't be that hard just give a nigga a gun and while mister oromo amhara boy is speaking infront of a crowd gun him down

 

[xabashi]

you don't shut down internet and imprison thousand of political activist because a bunch of hooligans chimped out.
no amount of damage control is going convince me or this site that your house isn't burning.

Dude, I am contrasting what happened to that of all the political suugo analysts here calling it the start of a civil war and a collapse of the state. But when we see it as it is, the chaos has left huge damage in terms of property and also lives but to declare it as the beginning of a civil war or a collapse of the state etc. is an exaggeration of huge proportion. I am only correcting the exaggeration not denying the huge damage.

 

[xabashi]

Your above statement doesn't make much sense since Keria Ibrahim, the speaker of the Upper House of the Ethiopean Parliament, has resigned a month ago and retreated to Tigray. She is a top official in TPLF. They would not have relinquished such a powerful position in Addis Ababa if they wanted to cling to the federal power.

I get you are an Amhara with agenda, but please do not lie to us.

It was clear the house of federation will replace the last federal TPLF official as PM did with almost all officials. PM Abiy removed all TPLF ministers and officials from the federal positions and Keria was the last one. Keria resigned one day before the House of Federation was to vote to extend election date which TPLF was against. Knowing very well she is in line to be removed, TPLF decided to at least embarrass the voting process.

 

[tyrannicalmanager]

Dude, I am contrasting what happened to all the political suugo analysts here calling it the start of a civil war and a collapse of the state. But when we see it as it is, the chaos has left huge damage in terms of property and also lives but to declare it as the beginning of a civil war or a collapse of the state etc. is an exaggeration of huge proportion. I am only correcting the exaggeration not denying the huge damage.

maybe you guys need to stop shutting the internet down and imprisoning thousand of political activist. we aren't the only one thinking something is up.

 

[xabashi]

maybe you guys need to stop shutting the internet down and imprisoning thousand of political activist. we aren't the only one thinking something is up.

Those who you call thousands of political prisoners have massacred civilians, burned and vandalized private properties, attacked civilians based on ethnicity or religion, attacked churches etc. These are documented cases even by oromo private media and also international media. Committing crimes against civilians and hiding under "thousand of political activist" doesn't work. Thousand of political activists should just conduct a peaceful demonstration which no one is preventing in today's Ethiopia.

 

[xabashi]

why can't they oust abiy it shouldn't be that hard just give a nigga a gun and while mister oromo amhara boy is speaking infront of a crowd gun him down

killing abiy is not ousting his government. Behind abiy is the 3 former EPRDF parties (Amhara, Oromo, South coalition) that formed the EPRDF with TPLF and they all hate TPLF. TPLF has tried another method i.e. trying to create a counter coalition with mainly oromo oppositions but the radical forces inside the opposition (ethno extremists and islamists) have now damaged it beyond repair by attacking civilians and showing their barbaric true color. The image of the oromo opposition is now destroyed as radical barbaric extremists with no clear political goal. Especially showa oromos including prominent figures are now openly distancing themselves from the radical oromo opposition. TPLF is now on its own.

 

[tyrannicalmanager]

Those who you call thousands of political prisoners have massacred civilians, burned and vandalized private properties, attacked civilians based on ethnicity or religion, attacked churches etc. These are documented cases even by oromo private media and also international media. Committing crimes against civilians and hiding under "thousand of political activist" doesn't work. Thousand of political activists should just conduct a peaceful demonstration which no one is preventing in today's Ethiopia.

i know for fact this is complete bullshit. the goverment was aresting activist before there any riots. and i know most of them were innocent, i know this because handful of them were ONLF officials who haven't commited a single crime, now that Oromos have turned on abiy he told his stooges to make peace with the ONLF.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

No one really knows what TPLF is trying to achieve by gathering its kilil leyou militia in Mekele stadium during corona pandemic.

Everybody in Ethiopia knows every kilil has its own leyou militia at least > 35k etc. Amhara, Somali, Oromia etc. Everybody has it but wtf is TPLF trying to achieve by gathering them with their AK-45 in a stadium? Does TPLF want to scare the well equipped Ethiopian Army with this militias? Serious?

We all know how Abdi Iley's leyou militia ended up when the Army showed up. These militias were trained to quell civil uprisings and look like lions in front of civilians but are no match to the well equipped Army. Believe me if these militias step one foot out of the tigray region, the Army will wipe them out in weeks.

The TPLF militia strength depends on the will of the Tigrayan people. Never underestimate this factor with your "we can crush them because we are well equipped" logic.

There are good historical examples for that:

1. The Chechen militia won two wars against the Russian army in the 90s.

2. The Panfilov division brought in from the Turkic republic of Kyrgyzstan to defend Moscow in the WW2 held alone the defense line against the advancing German army. Imagine a single division stopped a more numerous and a far better equipped German troops from taking over Moscow when everybody around them gave up. Even the Moscow residents were fleeing en mass.

3. Mustafa Kemal Ataturk fought against the far superior British, Italian, French, Australian and New Zealand troops and saved his country.

All three have won against the odds.

If Tigrayan people believe in their national cause, Tigray region will stand its ground with success.

 

[xabashi]

The TPLF militia strength depends on the will of the Tigrayan people. Never underestimate this factor with your "we can crush them because we are well equipped" logic.

There are good historical examples for that:

1. The Chechen militia won two wars against the Russian army in the 90s.

2. The Panfilov division brought in from the Turkic republic of Kyrgyzstan to defend Moscow in the WW2 held alone the defense line against the advancing German army. Imagine a single division stopped a more numerous and a far better equipped German troops from taking over Moscow when everybody around them gave up. Even the Moscow residents were fleeing en mass.

3. Mustafa Kemal Ataturk fought against the far superior British, Italian, French, Australian and New Zealand troops and saved his country.

All three have won against the odds.

If Tigrayan people believe in their national cause, Tigray will stand their ground with success.

I fully agree and the current Tigray people is in no mood to die for the few TPLF mafia who were living a luxuries lives in Addis Ababa for the last 27 years forgetting Tigray. TPLF even banned the two main opposition parties in Tigray in its coming fake elections. This shows you how insecure TPLF is in its own turf. It is facing uprising and opposition mainly by unemployed youth. I am taking all this parameters into consideration when I say these militias are no match to the army. And finally the moment it starts war with Ethiopia army, I will assure you the Eritrean army will not sit and watch but go to Tigray and occupy the Territories like Badme etc. TPLF will face both Ethiopia and Eritrean army. I don't really think TPLF is that stupid.

 

[xabashi]

i know for fact this is complete bullshit. the goverment was aresting activist before there any riots. and i know most of them were innocent, i know this because handful of them were ONLF officials who haven't commited a single crime, now that Oromos have turned on abiy he told his stooges to make peace with the ONLF.

Until PM Abiy came to power, thousands of political prisoners were detained if you are talking about that. But Abiy released all of them. Individual opposition members still continue to be arrested for criminal activities but no "thousands of opposition activists" were jailed in Ethiopia until the riot began.

 

[kickz]

Dude, I am contrasting what happened to that of all the political suugo analysts

Did your Somali just pop out, or you got that word in your native tongue

 

[AbdiGeedi]

@xabashi

Abiy undertook the reforms because the situation was no longer sustainable. Ethiopia was between a rock and a hard place. Now Abiy understands he opened the can of worms and is saying "I was damned if I did or didn't do it".

2020 is an effed-up year in every way. The wait is not that long for the Tigray confrontation now.
I am not buying your assessment of what Eritrea would do in the event of the military confrontation between Addis Ababa and the TPLF. We will find out soon enough though.

 

[tyrannicalmanager]

Until PM Abiy came to power, thousands of political prisoners were detained if you are talking about that. But Abiy released all of them. Individual opposition members still continue to be arrested for criminal activities but no "thousands of opposition activists" were jailed in Ethiopia until the riot began.

i never said ethiopian goverment was arresting people by the thousand before the riots happened. i said the that ethiopian goverment was aresting political activist long before the riots happened

News: Ethiopian authorities crack down on opposition supporters with mass arrests: Amnesty - Addis Standard

Mahlet Fasil Addis Abeba, January 27/2020 - Amnesty International said it has confirmed that at least 75 supporters of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) were arrested over the weekend from various places in different parts of Oromia Regional State, as Ethiopian authorities intensify the crackdown […]

addisstandard.com

the somali branch of the PP have atacked ONLF ofices and attacked there supporters.

 

[xabashi]

Did your Somali just pop out, or you got that word in your native tongue

Oops, where does that come from?

I think it is time for me to reduce my engagement on sspot.

 

[xabashi]

i never said ethiopian goverment was arresting people by the thousand before the riots happened. i said the that ethiopian goverment was aresting political activist long before the riots happened

News: Ethiopian authorities crack down on opposition supporters with mass arrests: Amnesty - Addis Standard

Mahlet Fasil Addis Abeba, January 27/2020 - Amnesty International said it has confirmed that at least 75 supporters of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) were arrested over the weekend from various places in different parts of Oromia Regional State, as Ethiopian authorities intensify the crackdown […]

addisstandard.com

the somali branch of the PP have atacked ONLF ofices and attacked there supporters.

Ok, but these are not "jailing thousands of political activists". OLF was split into two and one of the faction is officially waging armed war against the state. So if you declare war on the state to achieve your goal using violent means then don't cry and complain when the state also responds accordingly. These can never be political activists.

In case of ONLF I also heard that incident and I agree that should have never happened but these seems to me few incidents and can never be described as "jailing thousands of political activists".

The jailing of thousands of hooligans started when the looting, killing and burning started. When the looting starts the shooting and mass jailing also starts . And that is absolutely OK!

 

[BirtaanJabin]

Somalia should open a “trades office” in the Tigray region