The Bet is ON. Ethiopia - disintegration vs stable democracy

[xabashi]

Warning: for those who complain that this is a Somali forum and not xabashi, I say shut up and move on! This is not for you! End of warning.

I have read so many Somalis comment on this forum who believe in and bet on the eminent disintegration of Ethiopia. They say Tigray will soon declare independence, then follows Somali State, Oromia etc. Every State soon will become independent and Ethiopia will be no more. When Abid Iley was removed few days back, many were saying that the Liyu police will transform itself into a rebel guerrilla force and an insurgency will begin soon.

I have been replying and trying to explain that the disintegration is not coming soon but rather a very strong, stable and fully democratic Ethiopia is on the horizon. Many here think that my view is naive and they claim that Ethiopia will never become a true democracy.

Now this thread is me betting on a stable, strong, prosperous and fully democratic Ethiopia in a very few years time. No disintegration and no human rights abuses. This is what I believe Ethiopia will become soon. A real democratic country and an economic powerhouse in the region.

If what many Somalis here are saying becomes a reality and Ethiopia indeed will be disintegrated, then I promise to come back, apologize and give credit for those who bet on the disintegration of Ethiopia.

The Bet is ON.

 

[Shushue]

The real reason is economic, it’s overpopulated and there’s ethnic competition over recourses, that’s how oromo-Somali rows began, it was about Somali livestock that had to cross ethnic lands, and distribution of recourses

 

[yaanyuur]

cool story bro

 

[Zuzu5]

Warning: for those who complain that this is a Somali forum and not xabashi, I say shut up and move on! This is not for you! End of warning.

I have read so many Somalis comment on this forum who believe in and bet on the eminent disintegration of Ethiopia. They say Tigray will soon declare independence, then follows Somali State, Oromia etc. Every State soon will become independent and Ethiopia will be no more. When Abid Iley was removed few days back, many were saying that the Liyu police will transform itself into a rebel guerrilla force and an insurgency will begin soon.

I have been replying and trying to explain that the disintegration is not coming soon but rather a very strong, stable and fully democratic Ethiopia is on the horizon. Many here think that my view is naive and they claim that Ethiopia will never become a true democracy.

Now this thread is me betting on a stable, strong, prosperous and fully democratic Ethiopia in a very few years time. No disintegration and no human rights abuses. This is what I believe Ethiopia will become soon. A real democratic country and an economic powerhouse in the region.

If what many Somalis here are saying becomes a reality and Ethiopia indeed will be disintegrated, then I promise to come back, apologize and give credit for those who bet on the disintegration of Ethiopia.

The Bet is ON.

You been reading my comments i see



But in all seriousness, I really hope both of our countries find the peace we really need. I make jokes here and there but i never wish for your countries downfall. Our people from the horn have been through a lot. We are our own allies and our worst enemies. So close yet so far separated. When i see people from Somalia, Ethiopia or Eritrea crying out, it really tares me down. When i saw our people in Lybia being treated like that, there were no words. We have been in the darkness for so long that we forgot how the sunshine feels. We Forgot the people we use to be, we lost the love and compassion. I love everyone from the horn no matter if they like me or not. My closest friends here in upstate ny are amharas and i would die for them any day.

 

[Khalid ali]

It's easy for you to say that since you're Amhara , but if you didn't know this "Ethiopia" bullshit was imposed on everyone else.If you want Ethiopia to be so united and democratic you should start off with a referendum in each regional state.Then, if everyone agrees to be apart of Ethiopia (highly unlikely) change the name, the flag and the national language. How hard is it to understand??

 

[Fahad Yasin]

OP you've lost touch with reality. Leave siyaasad to the men, in our culture it's looked down upon for women to engage in politics. Now go look pretty & watch kana tv

 

[Young Popeye]

I want to play strip poker

 

[Abdirazack]

I think somaloa should work with Ethiopia making more jobs and opportunities for both of us.we have ports we could give them aceee to our ports that would build roads more ports and more jobs for both of us. Instead of think on how to destroy Ethiopia use leverage on it when it's completely dependent on our ports for trade we can make them do what we wanna do. We could make a deal on giving back ogadenia

 

[AarHawd_7]

I think somaloa should work with Ethiopia making more jobs and opportunities for both of us.we have ports we could give them aceee to our ports that would build roads more ports and more jobs for both of us. Instead of think on how to destroy Ethiopia use leverage on it when it's completely dependent on our ports for trade we can make them do what we wanna do. We could make a deal on giving back ogadenia

The only way getting back Somali Galbeed is by force of one united Somali front.

 

[Abdirazack]

The only way getting back Somali Galbeed is by force of one united Somali front.

Most wars never succeed in the 21st century you have to use your wits and brain instead of brute force. We alrwady know what happened back in 77 so I don't thing brute Force will solve a border problem. Some examples of these are
1.Iran and Iraq
2.North Korea and South Korea
3.Iraq and Kuwait
4.Isreal and Egypt
5.Nazi and USSR

 

[xabashi]

It's easy for you to say that since you're Amhara , but if you didn't know this "Ethiopia" bullshit was imposed on everyone else.If you want Ethiopia to be so united and democratic you should start off with a referendum in each regional state.Then, if everyone agrees to be apart of Ethiopia (highly unlikely) change the name, the flag and the national language. How hard is it to understand??

If I am not mistaken Amhara is not in power for the last decades. One of the "every one else", Tigray had 27 years time to get out of this "imposed Ethiopia" but they didn't. Now one of yet another "every one else", the Oromo is in power and I see no sign of get out of "imposed Ethiopia". Something doesn't add up here.

 

[Khalid ali]

If I am not mistaken Amhara is not in power for the last decades. One of the "every one else", Tigray had 27 years time to get out of this "imposed Ethiopia" but they didn't. Now one of yet another "every one else", the Oromo is in power and I see no sign of get out of "imposed Ethiopia". Something doesn't add up here.

Tigray and Amhara are both habesha's and Abyssinians buddy. The oromo in power is half habesha and has a habesha wife ninka waa iska amxaar. Lol why do you love denying people their rights .... btw answer my other question.

 

[xabashi]

OP you've lost touch with reality. Leave siyaasad to the men, in our culture it's looked down upon for women to engage in politics. Now go look pretty & watch kana tv

Sexist! I see you like Kana TV though.

 

[Khalid ali]

@xabashi stop ignoring my post , this is third time I'm telling you this

If you want Ethiopia to be so united and democratic you should start off with a referendum in each regional state.Then, if everyone agrees to be apart of Ethiopia (highly unlikely) change the name, the flag and the national language.How hard is that to understand?

 

[Fahad Yasin]

Sexist! I see you like Kana TV though.

Is that you in your DP? I bet you're pretty irl, you have a bright future ahead of you as a beauty pageant.

 

[xabashi]

Tigray and Amhara are both habesha's and Abyssinians buddy. The oromo in power is half habesha and has a habesha wife ninka waa iska amxaar. Lol why do you love denying people their rights .... btw answer my other question.

Now you are expanding the criteria from being Amhara to habesha and even to being married to habesha. What is next? So if the oromo PM marries Amhara all oromos just be silent and become Ethiopians overnight yeah? Thank you for your advise, we will do the same on Somalis if that is so easy (jokes).

Now come to the your other question. First as I said many times, if the Somali people or any other want independence and vote in a free and fair referendum, I will wish them all the best. But this peaceful path need so much prior job to do before it could produce a peacefully coexisting countries. First we need a democratization process so that a free and fair election/referendum can take place in the first place. If today the government follows your advise and conducts a referendom and declares that in 67% of the Somali residents rejected secession, then what would you say? You cry foul and will never accept the results because we don't have first a credible democratic system. So that is the first thing to do.

In the last 10 years while Abdi Iley was in power this is unthinkable. Now that the Somali state have joined other states in Ethiopia in becoming more democratic and allowing the free flow of ideas and also allowing different political parties to operate, we can start the political debate and then in 2020 hold the first free and fair election. After the people are represented by their freely elected officials then they can start the process of peaceful divorce if the people wish so.

The process of course must be according to the constitution i.e. a referendum must be held and things like border issues and debt sharing etc. must be PEACEFULLY settled first to avoid any war in the future. If things go peacefully and in constructive manner and produce a cooperating and peacefully coexisting countries, I have nothing against it. What I don't support is a forceful or rush exit without a demarcated border that will create wars upon wars for years to come without even getting international recognition at the end. That is a stupid thing to do.

 

[xabashi]

@xabashi stop ignoring my post , this is third time I'm telling you this

If you want Ethiopia to be so united and democratic you should start off with a referendum in each regional state.Then, if everyone agrees to be apart of Ethiopia (highly unlikely) change the name, the flag and the national language.How hard is that to understand?

I already answered about the referendum thing. Here I want only to address the issue of flag and language. Whether we like it or not the flag and national language will be one of the issues that will be debated and modified in the first elected parliament in 2020. That is out of question because we don't have consensus on these issues and must find one through democratic dialog and vote. Almost everybody agrees whether he/she is Amhara, Tigray, Oromo or whatever, that we have to have a debate and come to a consensus on these issues. I am 100% sure that this will be addressed in the new parliament. The question of the name, I never heard it but if there is not consensus on it, why not? We should debate and change it if the majority want it. But I have yet to meet anyone who said we should change the name of the country.

On the language issue, my guess is that Afaan Oromo will soon be added to become the second federal working language alongside Amharic. According to the population size, the next in line will be Tigrigna, Somali and Sidama.

 

[Khalid ali]

Now you are expanding the criteria from being Amhara to habesha and even to being married to habesha. What is next? So if the oromo PM marries Amhara all oromos just be silent and become Ethiopians overnight yeah? Thank you for your advise, we will do the same on Somalis if that is so easy (jokes).

Now come to the your other question. First as I said many times, if the Somali people or any other want independence and vote in a free and fair referendum, I will wish them all the best. But this peaceful path need so much prior job to do before it could produce a peacefully coexisting countries. First we need a democratization process so that a free and fair election/referendum can take place in the first place. If today the government follows your advise and conducts a referendom and declares that in 67% of the Somali residents rejected secession, then what would you say? You cry foul and will never accept the results because we don't have first a credible democratic system. So that is the first thing to do.

In the last 10 years while Abdi Iley was in power this is unthinkable. Now that the Somali state have joined other states in Ethiopia in becoming more democratic and allowing the free flow of ideas and also allowing different political parties to operate, we can start the political debate and then in 2020 hold the first free and fair election. After the people are represented by their freely elected officials then they can start the process of peaceful divorce if the people wish so.

The process of course must be according to the constitution i.e. a referendum must be held and things like border issues and debt sharing etc. must be PEACEFULLY settled first to avoid any war in the future. If things go peacefully and in constructive manner and produce a cooperating and peacefully coexisting countries, I have nothing against it. What I don't support is a forceful or rush exit without a demarcated border that will create wars upon wars for years to come without even getting international recognition at the end. That is a stupid thing to do.

Ethiopia is an Abyssinian project, Amhara and tigre same shit.
Oromo are 40 million people okay and its common knowledge the ones in western oromia had it worst (I don't even have to explain what was done to them) so therefore you can't say someone like abiy(half Amhara, from western oromia) has the same views as the oromo from Hararghe.

 

[xabashi]

Ethiopia is an Abyssinian project, Amhara and tigre same shit.
Oromo are 40 million people okay and its common knowledge the ones in western oromia had it worst (I don't even have to explain what was done to them) so therefore you can't say someone like abiy(half Amhara, from western oromia) has the same views as the oromo from Hararghe.

I am not saying Abiy has the same views as oromos from hararge. What I am challenging you is that how come a 40 million big people just stop its own anti Ethiopian stand just because of one man whom no one knew until recently? How come in the 3-4 years time where the Qeerroo fought and died, never raised the issue of secession or independence? And how come almost all oromo organizations inside and outside are all working to bring full democracy in Ethiopia and to make "Ethiopia great again" and not to disintegrate it?

 

[Khalid ali]

I am not saying Abiy has the same views as oromos from hararge. What I am challenging you is that how come a 40 million big people just stop its own anti Ethiopian stand just because of one man whom no one knew until recently? How come in the 3-4 years time where the Qeerroo fought and died, never raised the issue of secession or independence? And how come almost all oromo organizations inside and outside are all working to bring full democracy in Ethiopia and to make "Ethiopia great again" and not to disintegrate it?

"Ethiopia" was never great. Please explain to me how you went from this ->
to this ->