Offensive against Al-Shabaab + most recent map of government control.

[JamalFarah]

Somalia’s Liberation War on Al-Shabaab

Progress made 21 months after President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud declared the war.

graphics.goobjoog.com

The offensive against Al-shabaab, went better than most people gave it credit for. Still far from achieving its objective. Although Al-Shabaab hasn't been completely eliminated from Galmudug and Hiirshabelle, the campaign highlights the SNA's capability to engage in and sustain a multi-month-long operation. It's encouraging to see improved training for the majority of the army, despite ongoing deficiencies. If the effort succeeds in clearing Al-Shabaab north of the Shabelle River, it would be a significant accomplishment.

 

[XuseenS]

What is the date of these 2 maps?

 

[SPMLegend]

I’ve noticed there’s a decrease in AS attacks in neighboring countries like Kenya. They have been gradually reduced. It’s now time to cut them off from vital areas in Badhaadhe lower Juba and around the interiors of Ceelwaaq

 

[JamalFarah]

What is the date of these 2 maps?

First one was pre-offensive, about 21 months ago - so around two years old, 2021-2022. The second one is from February 2024

 

[Killamenace78]

What is the date of these 2 maps?

First one is Areas controlled by Al-Shabaab (AS) before the offensive
second one is 2024 February

 

[JamalFarah]

I’ve noticed there’s a decrease in AS attacks in neighboring countries like Kenya. They have been gradually reduced. It’s now time to cut them off from vital areas in Badhaadhe lower Juba and around the interiors of Ceelwaaq

Just what I was thinking, starting by clearing the remnants north of the Shabelle River is important. Then, creating a secure land connection from Mogadishu to Kismayo along the coast is the next step. After that, clearing the borderland from Jubaland to the Jubba River is crucial. Following this, a coordinated push from both the Shabelle and the Jubba into Bay and Bakool should be done, focusing on connecting both fronts via the border. And, of course, it's essential to build tribal alliances in Bay and Bakool. That creats an inescapable pocket. If sealed correctly, it could prevent Al-Shabaab from acquiring weaponry, recruiting volunteer fighters, or finding opportunities to escape. While the leadership might attempt to flee, a well-executed operation could effectively crush the institutions of Al-Shabaab.

 

[Zak12]

Doomposters: " The Al-Shabab offensive has failed! AMISOM will stay forever!"

 

[Gaandheri]

Nothing changed a few cities/villages liberated is nothing they still control one whole region.

 

[Killamenace78]

Nothing changed a few cities/villages liberated is nothing they still control one whole region.

Exactly what they are doing against alshabab isn’t working they need to start from the root

 

[Bazed]

What is the date of these 2 maps?

It's before the operation and after. The darker colors showing Al shabaab held territory and the lighter being contested areas.

 

[Aurelian]

Madobe is just useful against what is left of Somalia's trees in the south.

 

[RoyalNortherner]

The weapons embargo has been lifted. I thought by now that swarms of UAV's would litter the skyline and drop miino on they ass.

What is the hold up?

 

[RiceMuncher]

The weapons embargo has been lifted. I thought by now that swarms of UAV's would litter the skyline and drop miino on they ass.

What is the hold up?

You're asking some poor fella why he's poor broski. Iirc tho, Somalia actually owns 2 Bayraktars and a bunch of choppers.

 

[Bazed]

For all of you who want to read up on the topic.

https://graphics.goobjoog.com/somalia-war-on-al-shabaab

 

[Bazed]

The weapons embargo has been lifted. I thought by now that swarms of UAV's would litter the skyline and drop miino on they ass.

What is the hold up?

We just got out of debt so we're pretty dry at the moment. The best method would be to have forces like Turkey provide air support while we train top quality shock troopers. Arms will flow in but at a steady pace and nothing too extravagant, simple yet practical tools are important.

Honestly the government should go for drones, taking control of the skies will make operations so much easier.

 

[Knaan99]

Farmajo wasted 5 years. 5 years that we will never get back

Just what I was thinking, starting by clearing the remnants north of the Shabelle River is important. Then, creating a secure land connection from Mogadishu to Kismayo along the coast is the next step. After that, clearing the borderland from Jubaland to the Jubba River is crucial. Following this, a coordinated push from both the Shabelle and the Jubba into Bay and Bakool should be done, focusing on connecting both fronts via the border. And, of course, it's essential to build tribal alliances in Bay and Bakool. That creats an inescapable pocket. If sealed correctly, it could prevent Al-Shabaab from acquiring weaponry, recruiting volunteer fighters, or finding opportunities to escape. While the leadership might attempt to flee, a well-executed operation could effectively crush the institutions of Al-Shabaab.

Xamar to Baidoa is next. But the SWS governor is delaying it thinking HSM will use the soldiers to replace him since his elections is this year smh.

Bay-> western hiiran -> Bakool -> gedo -> coastal area to lower Jubba > middle Jubba.
ENDF was one that was supposed to help do the final push. But after MOU, HSM changed his mind. Hence they delay.

 

[Bazed]

"The exact numbers of the government forces are undisclosed, but estimates suggest a force of around 30,000. Additionally, the Macawisley community defense forces fluctuates between 6,000 to 7,000 members. The African Union Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) contributes currently about 14,000 troops, many of whom are engaged in stationary roles.

Furthermore, the Somali National Armed Forces benefit from aerial support provided by international partners, notably the United States, enhancing their operational capabilities against Al-Shabaab.

On the Al-Shabaab side, with an estimated strength of around 14,000 militants at the start of the war, which predominantly operated in central and southern Somalia. However, since the onset of the liberation war, the group has suffered significant losses, with thousands of its fighters killed in battle and many captured. The group often deploys its fighters on missions with little expectation of their return, reflecting the heavy toll on its ranks."

(https://graphics.goobjoog.com/somalia-war-on-al-shabaab)

Seems like shabaab is purely on hit and run which is a high risk strategy. It's not sustainable for them and with more interest by foreign investors in building bases and training troops they can't keep up. I think once central is fully under control that the fight for Jubbaland will be the true war. It will be a fight on the enemies backyard and the government knows it. That's possibly why they penned the deal with the US for military bases and more special forces trained.

 

[Pastoralist]

Doomposters: " The Al-Shabab offensive has failed! AMISOM will stay forever!"

They were invited back though, just under another name, inshallah that bill is reversed.

 

[johnsepei5]

The weapons embargo has been lifted. I thought by now that swarms of UAV's would litter the skyline and drop miino on they ass.

What is the hold up?

UAV is cheap, its just plain old corruption HSM would Rather milk the west
Hassan sheikh ma dhargo

 

[Lumo]

Farmajo wasted 5 years. 5 years that we will never get back


Xamar to Baidoa is next. But the SWS governor is delaying it thinking HSM will use the soldiers to replace him since his elections is this year smh.

Bay-> western hiiran -> Bakool -> gedo -> coastal area to lower Jubba > middle Jubba.
ENDF was one that was supposed to help do the final push. But after MOU, HSM changed his mind. Hence they delay.

The wait may be worth it. You don't want to rush military operations and suffer unessesary casualties.

Laftagareen is powerless to delay anything. That man barley controls anything outside of Baidoa.

Self serving "presidents" like him are a obstacle as usual.