In the event of a Afghan style collapse of the FGS would there be parts of Somalia that are able to hold out against Al -shabab?

[Kanan]

Only SL & PL. All other states are relatively new and do not have enough troops nor control their own territories.

 

[Hybrid()]

Somaliland won't get a single bullet from alshabaad thanks to puntland and DDSI who'd do all the dirty work for them. Having functioning states next to you as a buffer zone is so nice

 

[Shaafici Mujaahid]

Somaliland won't get a single bullet from alshabaad thanks to puntland and DDSI who'd do all the dirty work for them. Having functioning states next to you as a buffer zone is so nice

PL and SL will fall. The only think keeping them from falling is that Al Shabab is repulsing Amisom and FGS. Without Amisom and an FGS PL and SL will fall in a year.

 

[Hybrid()]

PL and SL will fall. The only think keeping them from falling is that Al Shabab is repulsing Amisom and FGS. Without Amisom and an FGS PL and SL will fall in a year.

Not possible. The only way puntland will fall is if they don't get military equipments/accessories from the west. somaliland isn't even gonna be in the equation.

 

[Shaafici Mujaahid]

Not possible. The only way puntland will fall is if they don't get military equipments/accessories from the west. somaliland isn't even gonna be in the equation.

I was on the ground and have gone on road trips all over. The Al shabab Jabhad in the Golis mountains are only there to bring weapons from Yemen and supply the south. Once the south is controlled by them, Bosaso and Bari will fall. Al Shabab will march from Beledweyne to Garrowe in a matter of weeks. SL is the hardest to take in my opinion but since their ideologically inclined to wahabism it won't be tough for Al Shabab.

 

[Hybrid()]

I was on the ground and have gone on road trips all over. The Al shabab Jabhad in the Golis mountains are only there to bring weapons from Yemen and supply the south. Once the south is controlled by them, Bosaso and Bari will fall. Al Shabab will march from Beledweyne to Garrowe in a matter of weeks. SL is the hardest to take in my opinion but since their ideologically inclined to wahabism it won't be tough for Al Shabab.

They'll have to penetrate 500,000 snm fighters in somaliland who will fight to the death if puntland surrenders to alshabaad

 

[James Dahl]

Shabaab would roll over Somaliland like it wasn't even there

 

[Hybrid()]

Shabaab would roll over Somaliland like it wasn't even there

You're mistaking snm rebels with southern flip floppers who will claim an alliance with whoever has the upper hand in the civil war. Somaliland will only fall if the west fails to supply them with weapons

 

[Shaafici Mujaahid]

They'll have to penetrate 500,000 snm fighters in somaliland who will fight to the death if puntland surrenders to alshabaad

Sh Drir and Sh. Mustafe will be their spokesmen. Al Shabab already promote their videos. The whole army of SL will defect. You guys are to Salafi to fight them.

 

[reer]

@Thegoodshepherd explained this in detail before. they will probably seize konfuria in a year. if they take konfuria then gobollada dhexe up to the galkayo line will be like dominoes. aswj wont survive without beesha caalamka helping them. the somali civil war has been on pause/hibernation/stalemate since 2015/16.

 

[Shaafici Mujaahid]

If Amisom Stays for a couple more years. An offensive to middle Jubba and road securing operations will defiantly weaken Al shabab. By then, hopefully, the somali army is 30k and we will be enough to secure the nation.

 

[FBIsomalia]

SL/PL/JL/FGS can not hold a candle against AS without the IC.

We handle Alkabab,islamic courts,Alitxaad before Amisom arrive in south!!.

 

[𐒁𐒚𐒒𐒂𐒘𐒂𐒗 𐒎𐒚𐒗𐒗𐒒]

We handle Alkabab,islamic courts,Alitxaad before Amisom arrive in south!!.

We defeated these groups when we were at our weakest, right after the civil war. It was even worse because Alitixaad had local supporters, entire subclans even.

 

[somalipatriot]

Can someone explain to me how do we ideologically defeat the Kebab scum?

If the arms embargo is lifted we can bring in tanks and helicopters the whole of Somalia will be then under sna control

 

[Wir]

All of Somalia is already under strict control of Al Shabaab and AMISOM. If AMISOM leaves AS will take over Somalia over night

Maybe this is why Somalia Federal Government wants to be a federal state under Ethiopia

 

[Removed]

We handle Alkabab,islamic courts,Alitxaad before Amisom arrive in south!!.

All states are dependant on aid my conditions are left alone by the IC. For how long can any state resist Mortor barrages, indiscriminate attacks, multi-million dollar offensives, and human waves etc without even having a complete budget.

If PL or SL were put under the conditions AS were ie fighting upwards of 30K trained troops with unlimited western funding and training/logistics + air support with only ~5k troops would either have survived?

This is the demon that faces us.

 

[GemState]

All states are dependant on aid my conditions are left alone by the IC. For how long can any state resist Mortor barrages, indiscriminate attacks, multi-million dollar offensives, and human waves etc without even having a complete budget.

If PL or SL were put under the conditions AS were ie fighting upwards of 30K trained troops with unlimited western funding and training/logistics + air support with only ~5k troops would either have survived?

This is the demon that faces us.

It all depends on if the IC have the stomach for an Operation Indian Ocean 2.0. If not, it's pretty bleak in all honesty, I don't see any Somali militia being able to make tangible progress by itself, especially in Lower shabelle and Middle Juba.

 

[Removed]

It all depends on if the IC have the stomach for an Operation Indian Ocean 2.0. If not, it's pretty bleak in all honesty, I don't see any Somali militia being able to make tangible progress by itself, especially in Lower shabelle and Middle Juba.

Oh, we can make progress; it's just that taking small towns is meaningless in weakening AS.

If the administration in Mog. was at least as eager to capture port revenue as the states, the AS budget could be cut by nearly half while the Gov budget was increased. Instead, five years later, we have three Gareens and a dispute about who gets to rig the election.

 

[Kanan]

All states are dependant on aid my conditions are left alone by the IC. For how long can any state resist Mortor barrages, indiscriminate attacks, multi-million dollar offensives, and human waves etc without even having a complete budget.

If PL or SL were put under the conditions AS were ie fighting upwards of 30K trained troops with unlimited western funding and training/logistics + air support with only ~5k troops would either have survived?

This is the demon that faces us.

What IC support do you mean humanitarian aid or military support. RRU and PSF are small units majority of the armed forces are tribal militia not funded or armed by IC.


If anything it shows the complete incompetence of SFG having 20k foreign muscles and virtually unlimited IC support in light arms yet they failed to build a national army for +15 years. How hard is it to lockdown Mogadishu, issue ID's and uproot AS when there is a genuine strategy by the government AS could be eradicated from Mogadishu in one term, 4 years or less.

 

[reer]

What IC support do you mean humanitarian aid or military support. RRU and PSF are small units majority of the armed forces are tribal militia not funded or armed by IC.


If anything it shows the complete incompetence of SFG having 20k foreign muscles and virtually unlimited IC support in light arms yet they failed to build a national army for +15 years. How hard is it to lockdown Mogadishu, issue ID's and uproot AS when there is a genuine strategy by the government AS could be eradicated from Mogadishu in one term, 4 years or less.

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