In the event of a Afghan style collapse of the FGS would there be parts of Somalia that are able to hold out against Al -shabab?

[Thegoodshepherd]

It will simply be a war of attrition as I stated. Those with better resources and manpower will win. Any gambling man would place a bet on AS. It would be like the Eastern Front where the Soviet Union fought against the main bulk of Nazi Germany, a grinding war of attrition.

The core group of fighters you mention will swell with more brainwashed recruits. Like I said, they just have to play a waiting game and train more kids forcefully taken from their families. Your million against millions of their soldiers of heaven? I know who would win. How many of your folk would commit suicidal human wave attacks? How many Reer Baadiyo would you able to raise considering how urbanised your clan is? Reer Magaal do not have the stomach for a fight as much as the hardier Reer Baadiyo. Without IC funding, would your diaspora resources match the revenue stream of the efficient AS bureaucracy and it's access to more finance generating resources in the richer South? How long can Qaadhan sustain a war?

Even if it starts off as a stalemate, they would grind down the civilian population with terror attacks against isolated nomads and cut off your supply of goods from the South such as fruits and vegetables. Will you be able to defend every isolated village along a hypothetical border? Sure there is Ethiopia as an alternative source of goods and imports etc. but that will only drive up the cost of living further impoverishing a society at war thus weakening their resolve.

Nonetheless, this is all hypothetical, it will never get to that point imo. If the IC abandon Somalia; Ethiopia and Kenya will step in to support their allied states. They will be guaranteed supplies and the Ethiopians, in particular, will probably throw in a few mechanised divisions.

I don't see how Alshabab, even with all of the manpower and resources of Southern Somalia, could hold Mudug let alone the rest of Puntland. Alshabab could conquer everything from Galkacyo to Bosaso, but they would not be able to remain there longer than 30 days. They can throw a punch but they would run out of breath long before the population of Puntland gives in.

The Taliban with all of the resources of Afghanistan could not defeat the Northern Alliance, Puntland has much more of Somalia's resources than the Northern Alliance had of Afghanistan's resources.

Alshabab would be risking complete defeat if they actually waged an all out conflict against Puntland.

 

[anonimo]

I don't see how Alshabab, even with all of the manpower and resources of Southern Somalia could hold Mudug let alone the rest of Puntland. Alshabab could conquer everything from Galkacyo to Bosaso, but they would not be able to remain there longer than 30 days. They can throw a punch but they would run out of breath long before the population of Puntland gives in.

The Taliban with all of the resources of Afghanistan could not defeat the Northern Alliance, Puntland has much more of Somalia's resources than the Northern Alliance had of Afghanistan's resources.

Alshabab would be risking complete defeat if they actually waged an all out conflict against Puntland.

Mudug would be easier to hold than a clan holding out in a place like Middle Jubba where it is easier to wage guerilla warfare.

They have no qualms punishing civilians for the misdeeds of their clan. Kill some of them and they will kill your elders for the crimes of their clansmen and abduct civilians. AS already do this in the South They achieve order through collective punishment, no different to other tyrannical states. Terror is a powerful tool to break down resistance.

All in all, we are hypothesising, but I am sticking to my hypothetical bet.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Mudug would be easier to hold than a clan holding out in a place like Middle Jubba where it is easier to wage guerilla warfare.

They have no qualms punishing civilians for the misdeeds of their clan. Kill some of them and they will kill your elders for the crimes of their clansmen and abduct civilians. AS already do this in the South They achieve order through collective punishment, no different to other tyrannical states. Terror is a powerful tool to break down resistance.

All in all, we are hypothesising, but I am sticking to my hypothetical bet.

I can remember when Puntland killed something like 300 Alshabab in like 5 days.
There is a reason they don't come down from the mountains.

 

[Zapfox1]

I can remember when Puntland killed something like 300 Alshabab in like 5 days.
There is a reason they don't come down from the mountains.

PL terrain is much more easier to wipe out AS killers. Barely any trees for them to hid or take cover in. You can see those cunts from a distance and shoot them straight with no fear of them taking cover. You can even use drones as well in PL’s terrain

 

[GemState]

They are a state within a state man.

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After seeing the consequence of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, hopefully it'll be a wake up call for the next government to seriously counteract them and make it a priority. I knew the current gov didn't have the stomach for it after they called shabaab our 'brothers' during a speech in 2017.

shabaab are not the Vietcong or Taliban, a serious organized offensive that went from village to village can take their territories, in July they tried to do it in Mudug but it didn't have nearly enough resources because it was diverted during the election Bs.

The approach needs similar to be what Alvaro Uribe did in Colombia against the communist militia FARC, which is the Somali government using a massive amount of violence in crackdowns. You need to cull them until they aren't a factor. Only way out of this quagmire

 

[somalipatriot]

If Alshabab were to capture southern Somalia and attacked Puntland it would not be a militia conflict but a war of peoples. Alshabab will make gains, but they will never be able to rule any area they gain because there will be a man around each corner opening fire.

Alshabab will have a core of true believer, but the vast majority of their fighters would be forcibly conscripted clan militia. Alshabab's core is about 5,000-7,000 troops, this is about the same size as the ICU or somewhat smaller depending on what estimate you use. There is an upper limit to how big Somali forces can get before the logistics of food, ammunition and communication overwhelm the meagre organizational capacity present in the country.

You also underestimate how effective clan asabiyah is in motivating fighters. The level of clan cohesion in Puntland in unlike anything found in southern Somalia. You simply cannot convince an MJ in Qardho that they will be ruled by D&M and Hawiye militiamen. Tens of thousands would be willing to die. The diaspora would be sending money to put an AK in the hands of each of those men. If Alshabab began marching on Galkacyo, I would book a flight to Garowe the same week. How many D&M or Hawiye in the diaspora are willing to fund the defense of their towns with qaaraan? Not many.

Alshabab would have a very hard time fighting Puntland on the open, treeless plains of Mudug. In a war of attrition, I would place my bet on the clan with more than 1 million males rather than the organization with a couple of thousand fighters.

Somalia has currently drones so they can simply bomb them its not like the aftermath of the icu days anymore where AS controlled major towns and large parts of somalia

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Mudug would be easier to hold than a clan holding out in a place like Middle Jubba where it is easier to wage guerilla warfare.

They have no qualms punishing civilians for the misdeeds of their clan. Kill some of them and they will kill your elders for the crimes of their clansmen and abduct civilians. AS already do this in the South They achieve order through collective punishment, no different to other tyrannical states. Terror is a powerful tool to break down resistance.

All in all, we are hypothesising, but I am sticking to my hypothetical bet.

My hypothesis that a clan with sufficient asabiyah can defeat Alshabab seems strengthened. Alshabab is much more vulnerable to clan based attack than you would have guessed.

 

[Rationale]

After seeing the consequence of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, hopefully it'll be a wake up call for the next government to seriously counteract them and make it a priority. I knew the current gov didn't have the stomach for it after they called shabaab our 'brothers' during a speech in 2017.

shabaab are not the Vietcong or Taliban, a serious organized offensive that went from village to village can take their territories, in July they tried to do it in Mudug but it didn't have nearly enough resources because it was diverted during the election Bs.

The approach needs similar to be what Alvaro Uribe did in Colombia against the communist militia FARC, which is the Somali government using a massive amount of violence in crackdowns. You need to cull them until they aren't a factor. Only way out of this quagmire

Well this aged quite well.

 

[anonimo]

My hypothesis that a clan with sufficient asabiyah can defeat Alshabab seems strengthened. Alshabab is much more vulnerable to clan based attack than you would have guessed.

Wrong.

My hypothetical argument was that if all things are equal, an AS in control of the South wins against individual clans/clan states. The presence of drones and their lack of complete control in the South does not correspond to the scenario I discussed with you. Revisit the thread to jog your memory.

 

[Username]

Jubaland? Isn’t that where their base is? How in the world would they hold out lol.

 

[InaShaqalle]

@Thegoodshepherd Puntland should host a parallel FGS within its land if, God forbid, an Afghan scenario happens in the south