In the event of a Afghan style collapse of the FGS would there be parts of Somalia that are able to hold out against Al -shabab?

[anonimo]

Offcourse it matters. We are not like southerns who brought disgrace to the Somali name and continue selling out for AS for short term gains. If small rag-tag ASWJ & Macaiisly could keep Al Shabaab at bay what makes you thinks Somaliland organized army with superior intelligence is going to do with Al Shabaab?


You are a nacas who do not have a clue about AS internal clan power dynamics. They thrive in southern culture that promotes warlord-ism over traditional clan mediation. Xoolo caadi ah who would prefer to deny the obvious to save face. What is even more baffling is minorities like yourself getting routinely squeezed between Hawiye SNA, AMISOM and Al Shabaab talking about clan grievances not being the main factor in AS survival.




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You are not the smartest tool in the shed by the looks of it.

My clan, Surre, was never part of AS and has never ever turned to them for support. By your logic we should have been one of the first to join AS. As a matter of fact, Reer Koonfur know that we, along with the MX and HG Cayr, fought them due to an identification with a Sufi sect revolving around Sheekh Yusuf Direed:

More recently, the Qubeys Surre subclan fought off AS mainly by themselves and even the government acknowledged it.

We never felt the need to join them at any point in our History. The only reason why the Qubeys made peace with them was because the government had not fulfilled its promises to provide extensive military support and they thought it is in their best interests to reach a favourable treaty of non-aggression with them.

As for the Hiiraan, that conflict did not involve AS whatsoever so how is it relevant to this discussion? It is a clan war which has been going on since 2015. The Xawaadle resorted to using SNA resources but Surre never resorted to AS despite your ignorant assumption that clans routinely use AS to settle scores. In this conflict, Surre have mainly used fighters from Mudug, Ethiopian Surres and North-Western Gedo Surres to support their isolated kinmen in Hiiraan, not AS. They attacked our towns, we reciprocated in kind.

I dare you to find me one source which suggests the above conflict involved AS. As a matter of fact, it has flared up again in 2021. They again attacked one of our lightly defended towns and we did not resort to AS but called on fighters from Mudug to assist the farming community of Kabxanley to relocate to their town. The first, and second video from a Xawaadle elder in December 2021 confirms how the militia in Kabxanley and Deefow are Surre clan militias, not AS. I ask you again when have my clan ever turned to AS for 'grievance' reasons?



As for Lower Shabelle. It is widely known that AS were responsible for the harm inflicted on Biimaal after they refused to stop waging war but so have other clans such as the Habar Gidir and Cawramale below who refused their authority in areas where AS have influence. AS do not discriminate when they have power, it is their way or the highway.

Coming back to your claim that your clan fief is some sort of superpower. Nigga you are entitled to your opinion. So am I. Your rusty Soviet era weaponry and that of most Somali clans fiefs ain't shit. If they hypothetically gained control of Southern Somalia, they would be able to field more DSHK mounted Teknikos than you, more troops than you, more Kamikaze attacks than you etc. and definitely a lot more soldiers of heaven than you. There will surely as hell be more battle hardened than you too. One Qabil will not be able to defeat the combined forces of AS controlled South Somalia. Your salvation is the fact that the IC will not allow them free reign in South Somalia, for now anyway.

As for your superior intelligence, miss me with that BS.

You got satellites in space? You spout emotion driven sheit!

 

[anonimo]

It’s safer and more common than you think, especially between places like xamar and afgooye, jowhar, qoryoley, adale etc

It ain't really safe from an extortion point of view if we are to keep it real. You have Qabil SNA and AS checkpoints all along those routes. This diaspora guy who returned to manage a farm in Lower Shabelle demonstrates how costly it is for those transporting goods.

 

[reer]

It ain't really safe from an extortion point of view if we are to keep it real. You have Qabil SNA and AS checkpoints all along those routes. This diaspora guy who returned to manage a farm in Lower Shabelle demonstrates how costly it is for those transporting goods.

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[anonimo]

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They are a state within a state man.

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[reer]

They are a state within a state man.

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[anonimo]

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Are you telling me they have their tentacles in Jubbaland controlled Kista too?

 

[reer]

Are you telling me they have their tentacles in Jubbaland controlled Kista too?

that was the 2000s. a wild era. kismayo is too hard its a small place where everyone knows each other. some stuff happens tho. like having a beachside hotel could be khatar. and its not as connected with jamaame and jilib like xamar is connected with afgoye and balcad.

 

[Shaafici Mujaahid]

Does it seem like Al Shabab controls more than the governemnt in those areas? How is the isbaaro routine? Does Al Shabab have cheakpoints between Mogadishu and Jowhar? What about Mogadishu to afgooye to Qoryooley? Is there any checkpoints on the road until Adaale as well? Thank you for answering walaal.

 

[Zapfox1]

Does it seem like Al Shabab controls more than the governemnt in those areas? How is the isbaaro routine? Does Al Shabab have cheakpoints between Mogadishu and Jowhar? What about Mogadishu to afgooye to Qoryooley? Is there any checkpoints on the road until Adaale as well? Thank you for answering walaal.

Yeah just recently al shabaab took over balcad for a few hours. They also attacked an army base in qalimoow which is inbetween balcad and jowhar. My family back home are regularly taxed by AS even though the place they live is under government control. People are more scared of AS than government. That’s the problem

 

[Bluefire]

So basically we are doomed Al-shabab will take over the whole country.

 

[convincation]

It ain't really safe from an extortion point of view if we are to keep it real. You have Qabil SNA and AS checkpoints all along those routes. This diaspora guy who returned to manage a farm in Lower Shabelle demonstrates how costly it is for those transporting goods.

It’s relatively safe compared to how it was a few years back and it’s still extremely common. I drove with my uncle from Xamar to afgooye and back twice and we only went through 1 checkpoint each time. Most of my family aren’t even from Xamar so whenever we touch down they all drive in from mahaday, jowhar, adale and even as far as beledweyne. The south isn’t as chaotic as you northerners want it to be saaxib

 

[anonimo]

It’s relatively safe compared to how it was a few years back and it’s still extremely common. I drove with my uncle from Xamar to afgooye and back twice and we only went through 1 checkpoint each time. Most of my family aren’t even from Xamar so whenever we touch down they all drive in from mahaday, jowhar, adale and even as far as beledweyne. The south isn’t as chaotic as you northerners want it to be saaxib

I ain't a Northerner sxb.

All I highlighted was the fact it ain't all roses regarding freedom of movement, you pay one way or the other as a commercial driver.

 

[Shaafici Mujaahid]

Yeah just recently al shabaab took over balcad for a few hours. They also attacked an army base in qalimoow which is inbetween balcad and jowhar. My family back home are regularly taxed by AS even though the place they live is under government control. People are more scared of AS than government. That’s the problem

Is the government weaker than Al Shabab over there?

 

[Shaafici Mujaahid]

So basically we are doomed Al-shabab will take over the whole country.

If we unite and say f*ck qabyaaled, I don't care if the president is hawiye darood or RW; we might move on and defeat them.

 

[Shaafici Mujaahid]

It’s relatively safe compared to how it was a few years back and it’s still extremely common. I drove with my uncle from Xamar to afgooye and back twice and we only went through 1 checkpoint each time. Most of my family aren’t even from Xamar so whenever we touch down they all drive in from mahaday, jowhar, adale and even as far as beledweyne. The south isn’t as chaotic as you northerners want it to be saaxib

I heard All the cities in the south are under siege by Al Shabab. Is that true? If you drove from Xamar to Mahaday, did you encounter Al Shabab? What about Beledweyne to Xamar, how was it there, did you see Al shabab?

 

[Zapfox1]

I heard All the cities in the south are under siege by Al Shabab. Is that true? If you drove from Xamar to Mahaday, did you encounter Al Shabab? What about Beledweyne to Xamar, how was it there, did you see Al shabab?

2016 I drove from jowhar to xamar. Didn’t encounter AS. Farmaajo weakened security. You can’t make the journey now apparently

 

[somalipatriot]

All of Somalia is already under strict control of Al Shabaab and AMISOM. If AMISOM leaves AS will take over Somalia over night
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Maybe this is why Somalia Federal Government wants to be a federal state under Ethiopia
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Your being ridiculous AS only controls a swathe of the southern countryside don’t talk about things your not aware of please

 

[somalipatriot]

If we unite and say f*ck qabyaaled, I don't care if the president is hawiye darood or RW; we might move on and defeat them.

Listen abaayo the qabyalaad facade is only pushed by the older generation who lived in Somalia before its collapse in 1991 when Siad barre used to rule with clan chiefs in all 18 gobols to keep control but in this generation there is no such qabyalaad so when you say we you mean the transitional governments from 2004 until now who were selected by clan elders not the one man one vote

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Tell these folk how people prefer the courts of AS when resolving disputes because they are seen as less corrupt. Or how AS run checkpoints only charge drivers a fixed fee in the territories they control instead of being extorted at every Qabil SNA checkpoint in the South. No wonder some folk in the South prefer AS to the FGS.

When all things are equal, AS will defeat Qabil militias because they do not fight a conventional war. A related subclan of my own defeated them militarily in Bacaadweyne. What did they do? As they controlled the surrounding territories, they would destroy Barkaads in the dead of night, target isolated nomads and steal their livestock, kill Nabadoons in urban areas like Mogadishu.

My point is that if AS capture the whole of the South, SL and Puntland don't have a chance in hell simply because it will become a war of attrition if all things are equal. They have troops on their side who have been brainwashed since a young age after being taken from their families. The opposing side have militias who mainly fight for money and Qabil pride. The ones who landed in Godob Jiran were isolated. Imagine if the territories they control were adjacent. Moreover, they will be able to call upon the resources of the highly populated South to bear in such a war. People forget that the Ethiopians stopped Maxaakimta from expanding in the early 2000's beyond South Mudug. The Maxaakim are nothing in comparison to what AS will call upon if they control the whole South as they are more ideologically driven. One side will have troops in its side who believe they are heaven bound if they die in battle and some actively seek such a glory. Imagine if they play the waiting game and train thousands more young kids to become soldiers of heaven. The cult will win hands down.

If Alshabab were to capture southern Somalia and attacked Puntland it would not be a militia conflict but a war of peoples. Alshabab will make gains, but they will never be able to rule any area they gain because there will be a man around each corner opening fire.

Alshabab will have a core of true believer, but the vast majority of their fighters would be forcibly conscripted clan militia. Alshabab's core is about 5,000-7,000 troops, this is about the same size as the ICU or somewhat smaller depending on what estimate you use. There is an upper limit to how big Somali forces can get before the logistics of food, ammunition and communication overwhelm the meagre organizational capacity present in the country.

You also underestimate how effective clan asabiyah is in motivating fighters. The level of clan cohesion in Puntland in unlike anything found in southern Somalia. You simply cannot convince an MJ in Qardho that they will be ruled by D&M and Hawiye militiamen. Tens of thousands would be willing to die. The diaspora would be sending money to put an AK in the hands of each of those men. If Alshabab began marching on Galkacyo, I would book a flight to Garowe the same week. How many D&M or Hawiye in the diaspora are willing to fund the defense of their towns with qaaraan? Not many.

Alshabab would have a very hard time fighting Puntland on the open, treeless plains of Mudug. In a war of attrition, I would place my bet on the clan with more than 1 million males rather than the organization with a couple of thousand fighters.

 

[anonimo]

If Alshabab were to capture southern Somalia and attacked Puntland it would not be a militia conflict but a war of peoples. Alshabab will make gains, but they will never be able to rule any area they gain because there will be a man around each corner opening fire.

Alshabab will have a core of true believer, but the vast majority of their fighters would be forcibly conscripted clan militia. Alshabab's core is about 5,000-7,000 troops, this is about the same size as the ICU or somewhat smaller depending on what estimate you use. There is an upper limit to how big Somali forces can get before the logistics of food, ammunition and communication overwhelm the meagre organizational capacity present in the country.

You also underestimate how effective clan asabiyah is in motivating fighters. The level of clan cohesion in Puntland in unlike anything found in southern Somalia. You simply cannot convince an MJ in Qardho that they will be ruled by D&M and Hawiye militiamen. Tens of thousands would be willing to die. The diaspora would be sending money to put an AK in the hands of each of those men. If Alshabab began marching on Galkacyo, I would book a flight to Garowe the same week. How many D&M or Hawiye in the diaspora are willing to fund the defense of their towns with qaaraan? Not many.

Alshabab would have a very hard time fighting Puntland on the open, treeless plains of Mudug. In a war of attrition, I would place my bet on the clan with more than 1 million males rather than the organization with a couple of thousand fighters.

It will simply be a war of attrition as I stated. Those with better resources and manpower will win. Any gambling man would place a bet on AS. It would be like the Eastern Front where the Soviet Union fought against the main bulk of Nazi Germany, a grinding war of attrition.

The core group of fighters you mention will swell with more brainwashed recruits. Like I said, they just have to play a waiting game and train more kids forcefully taken from their families. Your million against millions of their soldiers of heaven? I know who would win. How many of your folk would commit suicidal human wave attacks? How many Reer Baadiyo would you able to raise considering how urbanised your clan is? Reer Magaal do not have the stomach for a fight as much as the hardier Reer Baadiyo. Without IC funding, would your diaspora resources match the revenue stream of the efficient AS bureaucracy and it's access to more finance generating resources in the richer South? How long can Qaadhan sustain a war?

Even if it starts off as a stalemate, they would grind down the civilian population with terror attacks against isolated nomads and cut off your supply of goods from the South such as fruits and vegetables. Will you be able to defend every isolated village along a hypothetical border? Sure there is Ethiopia as an alternative source of goods and imports etc. but that will only drive up the cost of living further impoverishing a society at war thus weakening their resolve.

Nonetheless, this is all hypothetical, it will never get to that point imo. If the IC abandon Somalia; Ethiopia and Kenya will step in to support their allied states. They will be guaranteed supplies and the Ethiopians, in particular, will probably throw in a few mechanised divisions.