Tell these folk how people prefer the courts of AS when resolving disputes because they are seen as less corrupt. Or how AS run checkpoints only charge drivers a fixed fee in the territories they control instead of being extorted at every Qabil SNA checkpoint in the South. No wonder some folk in the South prefer AS to the FGS.
When all things are equal, AS will defeat Qabil militias because they do not fight a conventional war. A related subclan of my own defeated them militarily in Bacaadweyne. What did they do? As they controlled the surrounding territories, they would destroy Barkaads in the dead of night, target isolated nomads and steal their livestock, kill Nabadoons in urban areas like Mogadishu.
My point is that if AS capture the whole of the South, SL and Puntland don't have a chance in hell simply because it will become a war of attrition if all things are equal. They have troops on their side who have been brainwashed since a young age after being taken from their families. The opposing side have militias who mainly fight for money and Qabil pride. The ones who landed in Godob Jiran were isolated. Imagine if the territories they control were adjacent. Moreover, they will be able to call upon the resources of the highly populated South to bear in such a war. People forget that the Ethiopians stopped Maxaakimta from expanding in the early 2000's beyond South Mudug. The Maxaakim are nothing in comparison to what AS will call upon if they control the whole South as they are more ideologically driven. One side will have troops in its side who believe they are heaven bound if they die in battle and some actively seek such a glory. Imagine if they play the waiting game and train thousands more young kids to become soldiers of heaven. The cult will win hands down.
