It’s really not the same at all. Somalia’s collapse was largely driven by outside interference. Ethiopia’s mess right now is entirely self-inflicted.
- Did Somalia or Eritrea displace a million people into Ethiopia?
- Did Somalia back armed groups or block Ethiopia from getting weapons?
- Did anyone isolate them diplomatically? No.... they did all that to themselves.
Also, let’s not rewrite history. Armed opposition groups based in Ethiopia were already active before the economy faced setbacks. And even in the late '80s, Somalia was still growing economically, private businesses were booming, grain production increased, and people had more disposable income.
This is from 1987 Business Magazine
It says:
''“Private sector activity literally has exploded. New stores are springing up rapidly in most of Somalia's cities and towns; numerous minibuses now operate; and drugstores which numbered only 20 several vears ago now are in the hundreds. Consumer goods are available more readily in greater variety and quantity throughout the country.”
“The response of the Somali economy has been impressive. The dramatic increase in grain production since liberalization of cereals marketing has helped Somalia become self-sufficient in maize and sorghum. Farmer income, based on relative prices of grain and consumer goods, has risen. Urban welfare also has improved as prices for domestic foodstuffs are relatively lower”
View attachment 366634
Here it says:
There has been a notable increase in farmer income and there is greater disposable income throughout the economy. Other results of recent reforms include significant increase in private sector investment as a percentage of GDP and corresponding new employment generation.
View attachment 366635
The government made real policy reforms, supported farmers, encouraged private sector growth and tried to adapt , not perfect, but it wasn’t some cartoon villain suppressing everyone for fun.
Ethiopia, on the other hand, keeps repeating the same pattern no matter who’s in power Haile Selassie, Mengistu, TPLF, Abiy it’s the same centralized, rigid feudal structure that never learns or adapts. Their current collapse isn’t surprising, it’s baked into the system.
People who reduce everything to one Somali leader who died 30 years ago aren’t serious, they’re just stuck in grievance politics.