Yh i just saw that this morning. It was inevitable really. The gap between the reality and the fake numbers was becoming too much. But I didnt expect it too happen this soon or that they would go so far as to say their numbers are complete b.s
borkena.com
This is the exact same steps that led to the collapse of the Kacaan regimeThe only rationale I can conclude from it imo, is that their economy has become so bad and keeps getting worse that it's become much harder to lie about the economic realities.
At some point, the numbers stop lining up and even allies or investors start raising eyebrows. I think they hit that wall where the cost of lying became bigger than just admitting things are falling apart.
@Barkhadle1520 @novanova It's bad yall, what we pointed out doesn't even scratch the surface
Ethiopia's Economy is in A critical State, Facing Severe Meltdown
Ethiopian economy is experiencing a severe and rapidly deteriorating crisis. The decline is no longer merely concerning...Read more.
You are right about "Do Not invest in Ethiopia" signaling. It looks like they took the call and are leaving in droves.
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>Economy starts getting worse>Unemployement starts reaching abnormal levels>The government visibly worsens>People start hating the government>The authoritarian leader refuses to step down>All the bila shaqo people with nothing to lose start forming and joining armed groups
>The economy fully collapses>Armed groups gain more terrain and the government fully collapsesThe only rationale I can conclude from it imo, is that their economy has become so bad and keeps getting worse that it's become much harder to lie about the economic realities.
At some point, the numbers stop lining up and even allies or investors start raising eyebrows. I think they hit that wall where the cost of lying became bigger than just admitting things are falling apart.
@Barkhadle1520 @novanova It's bad yall, what we pointed out doesn't even scratch the surface
Ethiopia's Economy is in A critical State, Facing Severe Meltdown
Ethiopian economy is experiencing a severe and rapidly deteriorating crisis. The decline is no longer merely concerning...Read more.
You are right about "Do Not invest in Ethiopia" signaling. It looks like they took the call and are leaving in droves.
View attachment 366601
Am dead as if thats the first thing they need to be worrying about, this resumes the whole country perfectlyYeah I've been seeing more of these articles. Its just weird considering all the negotiations going on between the imf and Ethiopia. I guess the world bank guys dont care about what the imf guys are doing.The only rationale I can conclude from it imo, is that their economy has become so bad and keeps getting worse that it's become much harder to lie about the economic realities.
At some point, the numbers stop lining up and even allies or investors start raising eyebrows. I think they hit that wall where the cost of lying became bigger than just admitting things are falling apart.
@Barkhadle1520 @novanova It's bad yall, what we pointed out doesn't even scratch the surface
Ethiopia's Economy is in A critical State, Facing Severe Meltdown
Ethiopian economy is experiencing a severe and rapidly deteriorating crisis. The decline is no longer merely concerning...Read more.
You are right about "Do Not invest in Ethiopia" signaling. It looks like they took the call and are leaving in droves.
View attachment 366601
This is the exact same steps that led to the collapse of the Kacaan regime
View attachment 366607
Wasn't Somalia's economy knee capped by predatory IMF loans and rising debt from the failed Ogaden War? I'm not saying some form of growth wasn't happening but Somalia was doing pretty bad, especially in the 80s.It’s really not the same at all. Somalia’s collapse was largely driven by outside interference. Ethiopia’s mess right now is entirely self-inflicted.
- Did Somalia or Eritrea displace a million people into Ethiopia?
- Did Somalia back armed groups or block Ethiopia from getting weapons?
- Did anyone isolate them diplomatically? No.... they did all that to themselves.
Also, let’s not rewrite history. Armed opposition groups based in Ethiopia were already active before the economy faced setbacks. And even in the late '80s, Somalia was still growing economically, private businesses were booming, grain production increased, and people had more disposable income.
This is from 1987 Business Magazine
It says:
''“Private sector activity literally has exploded. New stores are springing up rapidly in most of Somalia's cities and towns; numerous minibuses now operate; and drugstores which numbered only 20 several vears ago now are in the hundreds. Consumer goods are available more readily in greater variety and quantity throughout the country.”
“The response of the Somali economy has been impressive. The dramatic increase in grain production since liberalization of cereals marketing has helped Somalia become self-sufficient in maize and sorghum. Farmer income, based on relative prices of grain and consumer goods, has risen. Urban welfare also has improved as prices for domestic foodstuffs are relatively lower”
View attachment 366634
Here it says:
There has been a notable increase in farmer income and there is greater disposable income throughout the economy. Other results of recent reforms include significant increase in private sector investment as a percentage of GDP and corresponding new employment generation.
View attachment 366635
The government made real policy reforms, supported farmers, encouraged private sector growth and tried to adapt , not perfect, but it wasn’t some cartoon villain suppressing everyone for fun.
Ethiopia, on the other hand, keeps repeating the same pattern no matter who’s in power Haile Selassie, Mengistu, TPLF, Abiy it’s the same centralized, rigid feudal structure that never learns or adapts. Their current collapse isn’t surprising, it’s baked into the system.
People who reduce everything to one Somali leader who died 30 years ago aren’t serious, they’re just stuck in grievance politics.
www.macrotrends.net
Also how tf did they managed to afford a whole light rail system
View attachment 366609
Yeah these expensive projects would require a ton of borrowing which isn't made up by Ethiopia's growth. The classic Chinese debt trap. That said, I think their GERD dam project was actually a good idea since unlike a light rail, electricity access is far more important and will pay off better in the end.Also how tf did they managed to afford a whole light rail system
View attachment 366609
Wasn't Somalia's economy knee capped by predatory IMF loans and rising debt from the failed Ogaden War? I'm not saying some form of growth wasn't happening but Somalia was doing pretty bad, especially in the 80s.
Somalia GDP Per Capita | Historical Chart & Data
GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for...
GDP per capita takes a massive nosedive after 1977
RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS: SOMALIA'S OVERALL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE HAS DETERIORATED BADLY OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS AS A SERIES OF BLOWS TO ITS EXTERNAL ACCOUNT HAVE COMBINED WITH BURGEONING FISCAL DEFICITS TO RECREATE THE LOW GROWTH, HIGH INFLATION ENVIRONMENT THAT HAD PREVAILED IN THE LATE 1970S. WITH EXPORT EARNINGS CUT TO LESS THAN HALF THEIR 1982 LEVEL (LARGELY AS A RESULT OF SAUDI ARABIA'S 1983 BAN ON CATTLE IMPORTS FROM AFRICA) AND FOREIGN AID FINANCING DOWN 18 PERCENT FROM ITS 1982 PEAK, SOMALIA CLOSED 1984 WITH ITS SEVENTH CONSECUTIVE OVERALL BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEFICIT, A NEGATIVE NET FOREIGN ASSETS POSITION AND GROSS FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES EQUAL TO BARELY SIX WEEKS OF CASH FINANCED IMPORTS.
PARALLELING THE RAPID INCREASE IN AID DIS- BURSEMENTS HAS BEEN AN EQUALLY RAPID RISE IN SOMALIA'S EXTERNAL DEBT. BETWEEN YEAR END 1979 AND YEAR END 1984, SOMALIA'S TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT ROSE TO APPROX- IMATELY US DOLS 1445 MILLION, UP US DOLS 848 MILLION FROM THE US DOLS 597 MILLION LEVEL WHICH HAD PRE- VAILED AT THE CLOSE OF 1979.
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Its not even chinese debt trap just african countries lying on their resumes and cant pay back
Saar lets not rewrite history kacaan mujahid bowerful leader saarIt’s really not the same at all. Somalia’s collapse was largely driven by outside interference. Ethiopia’s mess right now is entirely self-inflicted.
- Did Somalia or Eritrea displace a million people into Ethiopia?
- Did Somalia back armed groups or block Ethiopia from getting weapons?
- Did anyone isolate them diplomatically? No.... they did all that to themselves.
Also, let’s not rewrite history. Armed opposition groups based in Ethiopia were already active before the economy faced setbacks. And even in the late '80s, Somalia was still growing economically, private businesses were booming, grain production increased, and people had more disposable income.
This is from 1987 Business Magazine
It says:
''“Private sector activity literally has exploded. New stores are springing up rapidly in most of Somalia's cities and towns; numerous minibuses now operate; and drugstores which numbered only 20 several vears ago now are in the hundreds. Consumer goods are available more readily in greater variety and quantity throughout the country.”
“The response of the Somali economy has been impressive. The dramatic increase in grain production since liberalization of cereals marketing has helped Somalia become self-sufficient in maize and sorghum. Farmer income, based on relative prices of grain and consumer goods, has risen. Urban welfare also has improved as prices for domestic foodstuffs are relatively lower”
View attachment 366634
Here it says:
There has been a notable increase in farmer income and there is greater disposable income throughout the economy. Other results of recent reforms include significant increase in private sector investment as a percentage of GDP and corresponding new employment generation.
View attachment 366635
The government made real policy reforms, supported farmers, encouraged private sector growth and tried to adapt , not perfect, but it wasn’t some cartoon villain suppressing everyone for fun.
Ethiopia, on the other hand, keeps repeating the same pattern no matter who’s in power Haile Selassie, Mengistu, TPLF, Abiy it’s the same centralized, rigid feudal structure that never learns or adapts. Their current collapse isn’t surprising, it’s baked into the system.
People who reduce everything to one Somali leader who died 30 years ago aren’t serious, they’re just stuck in grievance politics.
I wonder if the same would happen in Somalia if a railroad was opened from Mogadishu to garowe or borama to garowe, would people be able to afford it ?You are right, they renewed their loan agreement, which is actually part of debt restructuring negotiations.
The conditions for it was that Ethiopia had to make policy adjustments, improvements etc like lowering inflation etc.
But i don't really understand how they an ascertain that they have been faithful to this if there are no reliable economic data like World Bank indicated. So it might be that the IMF just take what they give them.
They borrowed 4.5 billion dollars to finance it from China back in 2018
Chinese investments in Africa go off the rails
Beijing signals new approach as concern grows over misguided ‘vanity projects’www.ft.com
It bleeds money and doesn't contribute to any economic growth. It's pretty much seen as a 'Vanity Project'' by the Chinese themselves.
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Today. Hardly anyone can afford to use it and most of the train are left crumbling, empty and desolate .
You are right, they renewed their loan agreement, which is actually part of debt restructuring negotiations.
The conditions for it was that Ethiopia had to make policy adjustments, improvements etc like lowering inflation etc.
But i don't really understand how they an ascertain that they have been faithful to this if there are no reliable economic data like World Bank indicated. So it might be that the IMF just take what they give them.
They borrowed 4.5 billion dollars to finance it from China back in 2018
Chinese investments in Africa go off the rails
Beijing signals new approach as concern grows over misguided ‘vanity projects’
It bleeds money and doesn't contribute to any economic growth. It's pretty much seen as a 'Vanity Project'' by the Chinese themselves.
View attachment 366637
View attachment 366639
Today. Hardly anyone can afford to use it and most of the train are left crumbling, empty and desolate .
Its seems impossible for every African country to lie about their data
Oh if only you knew
Honestly, most of what I mentioned is about how the economy adapted in the 80s that was driven by private sector growth and the Somali people, not just Kacaan leadership.
@Barkhadle1520 @Som @novanova @Midas @Shimbiris @Aseer Looking at this now, it actually reinforces the idea that prices remain relatively stable and similar across the country. Despite the presence of federal member states and Somaliland's self-declared independence, Somalia functions in many ways as a single, integrated economy.
It also reflects that people across regions are largely able to afford and access variety of goods available in local markets , so it supports what we have been saying about the broader level of purchasing power is more than is often assumed and supply & demand that comes with it.
Compare Somalia’s performance to the Ethiopian report below , the difference is stark:
Holy cow. Their market economy is basically all fried.
Ethiopia Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI) Market Overview: 05 - 14 August, 2024 - Ethiopia
Assessment in English on Ethiopia about Agriculture, Food and Nutrition and more; published on 12 Sep 2024 by REACHreliefweb.int
From the Joint Markets and Supply Chain Update | 16 – 30 April 2025
Somalia - WFP Fortnight Joint Markets and Supply Chain Update | 16 – 30 April 2025 - Somalia
Situation Report in English on Somalia about Food and Nutrition, Logistics and Telecommunications, Drought and Flash Flood; published on 6 May 2025 by WFP
