Civil war enters second year in Ethiopia

Look at the the list of PP candidates for Benishangul-Gomuz seats in Xabashistan upper chamber of parliament


Asosa Hoha: Musa Ahmed Bakr
Asosa Megele:Manil Imran Andris
Bambasi: Nefisa Almahad Alaqib
Mao Komo liyu: Abosh Mustafa Musa (running unopposed)
Sherkole: Mubarak Ilyas Mustafa

Im wondering if they are competing against Axmaara settler candidates or more likely a mixture of settlers and natives especially in the lower chamber which selects the prime minister



More or less as described by @Sheikh Kulkuli except I suspect Axmaar claim is that TPLF and ethnic federalism are akin to apartheid system removing Axmaars from areas that their families had settled there. The Benishangul-Gomuz and Sudanese rejoinder would be the region is actually more connected to Sudan and Axmaars were never supposed to settle.

That brings up colonial era treaties, and the GERD project, and the shared/unshared objectives of Egypt andSudan when it comes to the situation
Amhara have settled in Metekel( gumuz & Beni shangul Kilil) just like they used to settle in Godey,Jigjiga,Degaxbuur iyo Qabridahar.They only left in 1991after the locals asked Meles newly formed govt to remove the settlers which he did.Hwoever they still settle in Dire dawa and they have a sizable.population in Jigjiga.

After the Gerd Dam alot of amhara peasants started moving to Metekel and the Ethiopian govt initiated projects that would see the area transform once theybstart utilizing the dam which meant the already marginalised Gumuz people would be left out.The amhara control the business in the region just like they control all govt instituitons in Somali kilil making 90% of employers in every sector banking,transport,power,health,Security,Revenue collection etc So literary there isnt real federalism in Somali kilil the only cleber thing the xabashi did is to give us useless positions based on clanism and we fight over who the qabil of the President of Somali Kilil ,Federal.Govt Ministerial posts etc which is only a handfull of positions so rather than fighting for a broader rights for.all. our youths to get employment on sectors which amhara illegally have occupied in Somali Kilil which is staggering 90% and also not given the quota within the central.govt in Addis Ababa too.
 
Link for updated Tigray control map
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1ukq3h-fUshA0a0ZDcSI22WHbfC6PnKtX&hl=en&ll=13.649385029523945,38.27820187498721&z=8

Here is how it looks as of now
View attachment 190891

Apparently TPLF has taken Shire. It also appears the areas they control is positively correlated with with proximity to Cafar state. Shire is the hometown of TPLF president Deybiretzion Gaebremikaeel. Akhsum the capital of the the first Abyssinian Masiixi empire also under TDF

No major battles reported in Walqayit as @xabashi claimed. It could mean a backdoor deal; TDF were told yes Maqalle but no Walqayit, and/or Tigaru were evicted by Fanno as suggested by @Sheikh Kulkuli and/or Walqayit is actually full of grateful Axmaara who feel liberated from TPLF. Based on town names that start with "Cadi" I think Micrabawi zone has/had substantial Tigray presence
Welkiat people did not welcome amhara its like darood and hawiye fighting over Lower shabelle which is Biyomal territory and hawiye claimming biyomal are hawiye.
 
Link to almost updated control map


1625016328541.png


notice Shire was recently taken by TPLF. Shire is the hometown of TPLF president Debretzion Gabramikaeel. TDF also controls Akhsum the capital of the original Abyssinian Masiixi empire also notice TPLF control Cadwa. The Battle of Cadwa was the famous battle Italians lost to Xabashistan EmperorMiilikh

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@xabashi how accurate is the map and are those town names in Micrabawi zone in Amxaarinya or Tigrinya names like Xumera and any town that has the prefix Cadi.

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The map might missing news from Tigray media reporting they captured Xumera in Micrabawi zone. Xumera is in the northwest corner of Tigray near Eritrean and Sudanese border.




That might indicate
1. Sudanese helping TDF
2. and/or Eritreans looking the other way as TDF take over Micrabaawi zone from Amxaar state
3. and/or Eritreans overwhelmed by TDF

update
: Axmaara branch of PropserityParty warn TDF not to take Walqayit. @xabashi this rules out TPLF honoring any secret deal they may or may not have made to take Maqelle only and forget about Walqayit. Either they broke that part of the deal about forgetting Micrabawi zone, the secret does allows them to take Walqayit, or there was no secret deal between TPLF and Abiy



Xumera is actually more important for TPLF survival than Maqelle. Xumera gives TDF access to Sudan. It all comes down to whether TPLF are bluffing like they did before when Abiy took over Maqalle in 3 weeks

Amhara have settled in Metekel( gumuz & Beni shangul Kilil) just like they used to settle in Godey,Jigjiga,Degaxbuur iyo Qabridahar.They only left in 1991after the locals asked Meles newly formed govt to remove the settlers which he did.Hwoever they still settle in Dire dawa and they have a sizable.population in Jigjiga.

After the Gerd Dam alot of amhara peasants started moving to Metekel and the Ethiopian govt initiated projects that would see the area transform once theybstart utilizing the dam which meant the already marginalised Gumuz people would be left out.The amhara control the business in the region just like they control all govt instituitons in Somali kilil making 90% of employers in every sector banking,transport,power,health,Security,Revenue collection etc So literary there isnt real federalism in Somali kilil the only cleber thing the xabashi did is to give us useless positions based on clanism and we fight over who the qabil of the President of Somali Kilil ,Federal.Govt Ministerial posts etc which is only a handfull of positions so rather than fighting for a broader rights for.all. our youths to get employment on sectors which amhara illegally have occupied in Somali Kilil which is staggering 90% and also not given the quota within the central.govt in Addis Ababa too.

The government of Cagjar and the Akisho guy are trying to make it demographically impossible for kililka5aad to invoke article 39

Welkiat people did not welcome amhara its like darood and hawiye fighting over Lower shabelle which is Biyomal territory and hawiye claimming biyomal are hawiye.

I agree. I think Micrabawi zone was mostly Tigray speakers and assimilated linguistically Abysinainised tribes. My guess is Walqayit was on the same assimilation track as ShewaQoti but Tigray made them Tigrianized and now they are back on their Amharanization track that was stopped in 1991.

Im trying to figure out how Tigrinya speakers dont live in westernEritrea but as soon as you cross the Takaze border between Eritrea and Tigray you enter the Micrabawi/Western Tigray zone and the people speak there speak Tigrinya.

Why do Kunama/Nara people live in Western Eritrea but not WesternTigray and were the Walqayit ever allowed self-identify or did TPLF/imperial/communist regimes always forced them to assimilate into 1 of the Xabash tribes
 
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Pure speculations that hold no weight...but why does a somali defend a tplf?
Because agames are a lesser evil and amhara taught agames to hate and oppress somalis.
So the root cause of all problems are amhara the same reason you guys fought them for 30 years to gain independence.

Amhara ruling Ethiopia will be a bigger threat to both Somalia and Eritrea.

Also there is no much difference between Eritreans and agmes they are one people.
In 1991 Eritrean soilders helped TPLF to capture somali towns in the Ogaden.So if I am going to hate on TPLF so should I hate on Eritrea.
 

TekNiKo

“I am an empathic and emotionally-aware person.
VIP
Pure speculations that hold no weight...but why does a somali defend a tplf?
Not all Somalis defend the evil wretched TPLF, Somali govt stands with PM Abby and Eritrea to destroy TPLF remenants and maintain peace in the region. TPLF Gabre orphans are still entrenched in Garowe and Kismayo and are a threat to peace. We wish you a quick victory against this scourge
 
An American grand poobah on Ethiopian affairs Mr HermanCohen says Sudan helped TPLF

TPLF recapture of Tigray capital Mekele – along with thousands of #Ethiopia's troops – was supported by an arms supply from #Sudan


Im not saying he is wrong but how do Sudanese weapons get past Eritrean/ENDF/Axmaara controlled territories surrounding TDF near Maqalle? Sudanese help scenario would make more sense when if/when TPLF starts activities in WesternTigraay its more plausible either TDF had a genuine military victory over ENDF or Abiy voluntarily withdraw under Western pressure neither of those scenarios involve Sudan, and in fact its more plausible that USA secretly helped Tigrayans. Secret American help scenario is not very plausible but its at least more plausible than Sudanese help
 
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Not all Somalis defend the evil wretched TPLF, Somali govt stands with PM Abby and Eritrea to destroy TPLF remenants and maintain peace in the region. TPLF Gabre orphans are still entrenched in Garowe and Kismayo and are a threat to peace. We wish you a quick victory against this scourge

MSB gave shelter to TPLF in camar for 15 years.
Ina Masaale brought TPLF to Gedo in 1995
Barre Hiraale used TPLF to stay relevant in Kismaayo
Farmajo handed over Qalbindagax to TPLF
 
An American grand poobah on Ethiopian affairs Mr HermanCohen says Sudan helped TPLF




Im not saying he is wrong but how do Sudanese weapons get past Eritrean/ENDF/Axmaara controlled territories surrounding TDF near Maqalle? Sudanese help scenario would make more sense when if/when TPLF starts activities in WesternTigraay its more plausible either TDF had a genuine military victory over ENDF or Abiy voluntarily withdraw under Western pressure neither of those scenarios involve Sudan, and in fact its more plausible that USA secretly helped Tigrayans. Secret American help scenario is not very plausible but at least more plausible than Sudanese help
Its CIA using Sudan helped TPLF.The US will never allow China to gain foot inside Ethiopia.I wouldnt be suprised if Blackwater was used as mercenaries to flush out ENDF and Eritreans from Tigray.
 

TekNiKo

“I am an empathic and emotionally-aware person.
VIP
MSB gave shelter to TPLF in camar for 15 years.
Ina Masaale brought TPLF to Gedo in 1995
Barre Hiraale used TPLF to stay relevant in Kismaayo
Farmajo handed over Qalbindagax to TPLF

So why are you cheerleading for TPLF? Same TPLF that tortured your kin in Jeel Ogadeen? Damiirlaawe!
 
So why are you cheerleading for TPLF? Same TPLF that tortured your kin in Jeel Ogadeen? Damiirlaawe!
Because unlike you who cries about Kismaayo for the last 10 years.They have fought ferociously against all odds and got back their land.

I respect their will power they are not like Mx aka Amhara who give empty threats and always use state resources and brag about it.
 

TekNiKo

“I am an empathic and emotionally-aware person.
VIP
Because unlike you who cries about Kismaayo for the last 10 years.They have fought ferociously against all odds and got back their land.

I respect their will power they are not like Mx aka Amhara who give empty threats and always use state resources and brag about it.
Interesting so you support the ones who conducted scorched earth policy against Somalia and Ogadenia? What has Abby done to harm Somalia he installed Cagjar and closed down the Jeel Ogaden. You should welcome these efforts
 
Interesting so you support the ones who conducted scorched earth policy against Somalia and Ogadenia? What has Abby done to harm Somalia he installed Cagjar and closed down the Jeel Ogaden. You should welcome these efforts

I think it would be better to avoid clan politics in this discussion

You can say Abiy was part of the TPLF regime that committed those crimes. Or, you could say those alleged crimes were crimes of AddisAbaba government. The government in AddisAbaba is PP and AtoAbiy

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Its CIA using Sudan helped TPLF.The US will never allow China to gain foot inside Ethiopia.I wouldnt be suprised if Blackwater was used as mercenaries to flush out ENDF and Eritreans from Tigray.

I still think that was unlikely but that could explain TPLF being strongest near Cafar state border, which borders Djibout and Camp Lemonier houses CJTF - Horn ofAfrica garrison of AFRICOM. I think Americans would rather have a proChina Abiy dictatorship over Tigray than establish a de-facto secessionist state in Ethioopia which could precipitate more kilils seceding. The best that TPLF can hope from USA is the lukecold response that Afweyne recieved from Cyrus Vance Sr and James Carter during the Ogaden War

As for Blackwater ...Xe Services ... Academi ...Constellis Group they are contractors who need someone to pay for their security services. The problem is USA prefers outright Abiy dictatorship to either article 39 or violent dissolution of Ethiopia. Why would America fund a security company to help TPLF secede? Unless someone advising Biden naively believes TPLF and/or Constellis Group can vioently overthrow Abiy while keeping Xabashistan united
 
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I think it would be better to avoid clan politics in this discussion

You can say Abiy was part of the TPLF regime that committed those crimes. Or, you could say those alleged crimes were crimes of AddisAbaba government. The government in AddisAbaba is PP and AtoAbiy

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I still think that was unlikely but that could explain TPLF being strongest near Cafar state border, which borders Djibout and Camp Lemonier houses CJTF - Horn ofAfrica garrison of AFRICOM. I think Americans would rather have a proChina Abiy dictatorship over Tigray than establish a de-facto secessionist state in Ethioopia which could precipitate more kilils seceding. The best that TPLF can hope from USA is the lukecold response that Afweyne recieved from Cyrus Vance Sr and James Carter during the Ogaden War

As for Blackwater ...Xe Services ... Academi ...Constellis Group they are contractors who need someone to pay for their security services. The problem is USA prefers outright Abiy dictatorship to either article 39 or violent dissolution of Ethiopia. Why would America fund a security company to help TPLF secede? Unless someone advising Biden naively believes TPLF and/or Constellis Group can vioently overthrow Abiy while keeping Xabashistan united
TPLF will never secede its just a bluff Tigray is not economical viable to be jndependent. They have been saying this since 1970s.
 

TekNiKo

“I am an empathic and emotionally-aware person.
VIP
I think it would be better to avoid clan politics in this discussion

You can say Abiy was part of the TPLF regime that committed those crimes. Or, you could say those alleged crimes were crimes of AddisAbaba government. The government in AddisAbaba is PP and AtoAbiy

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I still think that was unlikely but that could explain TPLF being strongest near Cafar state border, which borders Djibout and Camp Lemonier houses CJTF - Horn ofAfrica garrison of AFRICOM. I think Americans would rather have a proChina Abiy dictatorship over Tigray than establish a de-facto secessionist state in Ethioopia which could precipitate more kilils seceding. The best that TPLF can hope from USA is the lukecold response that Afweyne recieved from Cyrus Vance Sr and James Carter during the Ogaden War

As for Blackwater ...Xe Services ... Academi ...Constellis Group they are contractors who need someone to pay for their security services. The problem is USA prefers outright Abiy dictatorship to either article 39 or violent dissolution of Ethiopia. Why would America fund a security company to help TPLF secede? Unless someone advising Biden naively believes TPLF and/or Constellis Group can vioently overthrow Abiy while keeping Xabashistan united
Oromo nation is backing Abby except a few OLF rebels so are Gambella and Amhara. Who needs Tigray they must pay for their crimes.
 
TPLF will never secede its just a bluff Tigray is not economical viable to be jndependent. They have been saying this since 1970s.

They might take that hypothetical secession deal after surviving this genocide and they clearly see they have no path to AddisAbaba

Oromo nation is backing Abby except a few OLF rebels so are Gambella and Amhara. Who needs Tigray they must pay for their crimes.

CaruusaQoti hate Abiy regime even though they appear to be docile while WesternQoti are allegedly supporting OLA rebels. Gambella are as irrelevant as kililka5aad when it comes to AddisAbaba power. About Gambella, there is no such ethnicity. Are you talking about Anuak JaLuo I think the same ethnicity as Odinga, or the Nuer, who I think care more about the situation between the SouthSudan situation Saalfa Kiir and Riyaak Mashaar either way I think we know little about Gambella

Did I mention many Qoti hate on Abiy because they perceive Abiy to be supporting Axmaar agenda
 
They might take that hypothetical secession deal after surviving this genocide and they clearly see they have no path to AddisAbaba



CaruusaQoti hate Abiy regime even though they appear to be docile while WesternQoti are allegedly supporting OLA rebels. Gambella are as irrelevant as kililka5aad when it comes to AddisAbaba power. About Gambella, there is no such ethnicity. Are you talking about Anuak JaLuo I think the same ethnicity as Odinga, or the Nuer, who I think care more about the situation between the SouthSudan situation Saalfa Kiir and Riyaak Mashaar either way I think we know little about Gambella

Did I mention many Qoti hate on Abiy because they perceive Abiy to be supporting Axmaar agenda
Also alot of oromos are muslims so they don't see him in the best of light compared to Jawar Muhammad.
 

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