I looked into it. Ethiopia is a perfect candidate for repeating the Yugoslavian scenario. Abiy wants a more centralized system of governance and ended up marginalizing the TPLF when it refused to join his Prosperity Party. The TPLF slowly moved back to their hometurf, the Tigray Region (TR) and started adopting the Tigrayan ideology of nationalism. Abiy started isolating the TR by blocking federal grants and in/out thoroughfares and also partially blockading the region though not allowing building roads. As a result, Tigrayans now view themselves as not being part of Ethiopia or more precisely part of the multi-ethnic community of Ethiopia. The Amharas and Oromos have also marginalized the Tigrayans elsewhere within the country, even calling them derogatory names. There is a whole new generation of the Tigrayan youth who don't buy into the TPLF's ideology and are purely nationalistic. The closeness of Abiy and Afwerki has convinced the Tigrayans even more that the Amharas want to isolate and destroy them completely. Hence, their determination for holding independent elections in Tigray.
Unfortunately for Ethiopia, Abiy is really a bad chess player who thinks he is the grand-master.
There were two things that needed to be upheld to avoid balkanization of Ethiopia:
1) Avoidance of direct military confrontation
2) Keeping negotiation channels open
Abiy messed up both of them. He shut any possibility of negotiations with the Tigray Region and engaged in direct military action with them.
What I am hearing is that yesterday's airstrikes by Abiy were heavy and caused a lot of death in the Tigray Region.
The Tigrayans won't stop now and most likely will take up independence movement. Also, the sizeable Tigrayan army has actual combat experience gained during the war with Eritrea.
I don't know if it is a coincidence or some sort of actual coordination between Egypt and Tigray. The Nile dam talks among Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan has failed once again this week. After the collapse Sudan made a proposal to have the AU as a mediator. Ethiopia supported it. However, Egypt rejected it. And within few days Addis Ababa and Mekelle went to war. Coincidence?
Keep in mind that the TPLF spokesman, Getachew Reda, has met with the Egyptian officials in Cairo in 2019 during the dam talks.
In conclusion, the situation is spiraling out of control in Ethiopia and might reach the point of no return the Yugoslavian style.
Please read Kjetil Tronvoll's in-depth article about Tigray and Ethiopia. He is a university professor from Norway with more than 30 year experience of researching and covering the Ethiopian affairs. After reading him you will quickly understand that
@xabashi is doing propaganda here.
Debretsion G/Michael, President of Tigray Regional state, greeting a crowd of hundreds of thousands during the 45th founding anniversary of TPLF in Mekelle on February 11, 2020. Kjetil Tronvoll @KjetilTronvoll Addis Abeba, May 14/2020 - The postponement of the elections and Prime Minister Abiy...
addisstandard.com
The three African nations say they failed to agree on new approach to resolve dispute over Ethiopia's mega-dam project.
www.aljazeera.com
Is Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) attempting to work with Egypt after disagreement with Ethiopia regarding the dam? Take a listen to the reportage.
borkena.com