Would Ethiopia fall due to the current situation?

It is really hard to predict this early. Anythign could happen. One thing for sure though is that the TPLF is powerfull and could reach Addis. Even if they don't, war will continue for a while. However, a total collapse is still far from happening.

If there is civil war though, Sudan and Egypt won't let it end soon. But then again there is always the AU and UN interfering to create peace at any cost
 
The war will not be a short affair; it will last for at least a decade. As a South Sudanese that has seen my Country destroy itself... this is very sad and so I sympathise with the Ethiopians. I hope they restore peace.

Ethiopia is my Country of birth.


IMG_7110.GIF
 
The war will not be a short affair; it will last for at least a decade. As a South Sudanese that has seen my Country destroy itself... this is very sad and so I sympathise with the Ethiopians. I hope they restore peace.

Ethiopia is my Country of birth.


View attachment 206491
Ur country is still young.its crazy to me that in 2011 I was a kid shopping with my mom in a south sudanese dominated area in Melb.On that day it just so happened to be July 9th,never have I seen south sudanese people soo happy.They were running in the streets, waving your flag,smilling,laughing and enjoying their breakaway from the former Sudan nation.
 
Ur country is still young.its crazy to me that in 2011 I was a kid shopping with my mom in a south sudanese dominated area in Melb.On that day it just so happened to be July 9th,never have I seen south sudanese people soo happy.They were running in the streets, waving your flag,smilling,laughing and enjoying their breakaway from the former Sudan nation.

The war was avoidable; was entirely unnecessary; and it's not only been terribly destructive in the many lives lost, but in the social fabric of our Nation-State.


We have put centuries of resistance into disrepute and have shamed millions of martyrs with our stupidity, tribalism, myopia, greed and violence.

I still wouldn't trade our independence for the world because it was the only way we could ensure that we didn't lose anymore of our territories to Northern regimes; also, we were losing close to 100, 000 people a year (for 21 years) fighting the North.
 

x z

±somali supremacist, anti-inceI&queen in the north
Staff Member
Somalia is the definition of misery loves company. You’re at the bottom of the barrel but find comfort in someone else next to you to share that bottom status, instead of finding a way up
 
Somalia is the definition of misery loves company. You’re at the bottom of the barrel but find comfort in someone else next to you to share that bottom status, instead of finding a way up

You and Mozart are so frank with your own people; it's refreshing and I try to do the same.
 
I'm holding out hope that there is an 11th hour peace deal that avoid state collapse, which would destabilize all of east Africa and lead to the world's worst humanitarian disaster
 

x z

±somali supremacist, anti-inceI&queen in the north
Staff Member
:ohhh::mjlol:

Ah, so it's still Qabil based.
It’s not qabiil based, it’s facts m. Even through I’m lander I’m still technically part of Somalia so i can speak for it. If anythin, him accusing me of being qabiilist just cause I’m lander is even more qabiilist, implying i can’t even criticise my own people
 
The war was avoidable; was entirely unnecessary; and it's not only been terribly destructive in the many lives lost, but in the social fabric of our Nation-State.


We have put centuries of resistance into disrepute and have shamed millions of martyrs with our stupidity, tribalism, myopia, greed and violence.

I still wouldn't trade our independence for the world because it was the only way we could ensure that we didn't lose anymore of our territories to Northern regimes; also, we were losing close to 100, 000 people a year (for 21 years) fighting the North.
South Sudan for 50+ years were led to believe that all their problems on earth were due to the North. You were led to believe that with the oil you had, you could outpace the north and the rest of Africa within a few years 😂😂. America and Israel were going to be on your side all the way, what an epic lie. It was this form of thinking that made the south Sudanese vote for independence.

However, most south Sudanese people are uneducated (no offence wallahi). By uneducated, I mean how many south Sudanese knew the actual oil reserves of southern Sudan at the time? Did they know that the oil was not permanent? Did they know that the price of oil was going to collapse in 2015? Were they aware of the the centuries old hate between Nuer and Dinka before Britain put the 2 Sudan’s together into 1?
South Sudan’s war already costed 400,000 lives and that figure was from back in 2016 (could be well more).

now of course I am not going to say that the north is innocent. In no way or shape of form will I suggest that the south returns to to north and especially not in the current climate and economic crisis/instability we have.

What northern leaders did to the south was atrocious and stupid. Did you know how many northerners actually supported Garang and his vision? + what territories are you referring to? The ones that you were losing to the north? We were one country 😂😂
 
I'm holding out hope that there is an 11th hour peace deal that avoid state collapse, which would destabilize all of east Africa and lead to the world's worst humanitarian disaster
Yes theres no way to calculate the suffering of more than 100million, no one can feed that many hungry and jobless people.

Unfortunately Somalis are having a schadenfreude with what's going on in Ethiopia, but this is a disaster for anyone with no winners.
 
@Khalumi

expand...
South Sudan for 50+ years were led to believe that all their problems on earth were due to the North. America and Israel were going to be on your side all the way, what an epic lie. It was this form of thinking that made the south Sudanese vote for independence.




Ah, I see, we couldn't possibly have come to our own conclusion that being subject to devastating slave raids was an existential threat; we had to be "led to believe" that losing 2 million people to your slave raids in the 19th century deserved a forceful response -- a full century before the more recent events you're obviously alluding to.


The slave-trade reached its apogee in the nineteenth century. According to one source, ’it has been estimated that during the 19th century Arab slavers carried off about two million blacks from the Southern Sudan’ (cited in O’Balance, 1977: 20). (Ethnicity and conflict in the Horn of Africa, Katsuyoshi Fukui, Ohio University Press, 1994)

Explorer Samuel Baker estimated at least 50,000 slaves were captured annually from the southern part of the country during his time in the 1860s (British Official Reports 1960, 4). This number kept growing as the slave-caravan route from Bahr el Ghazal through El-Obeid to the Mediterranean gained significant importance. (The British Southern Policy in Sudan: An Inquiry into the Closed District Ordinances (1914-1946), David Nailo N. Mayo. Michigan State University)

Are you now trying to pretend that you (unlike our apparently naive little selves) were so fiercely independent and so incredulous that you didn't join your Turkish and Egyptian overlords in devastating the South in the 19th century? You didn't pay them tribute for the privilege of raiding us?


You were led to believe that with the oil you had, you could outpace the north and the rest of Africa within a few years 😂😂.

What stunning ignorance! We fought you long before the discovery of oil and long before we were aware of whatever economic windfall it could have provided for us; it was not the rationale for us refusing to kowtow to you -- a people that happily took directives from the Turks, Egyptians and Gulf Arabs.

Your ahistorical drivel would actually make sense if our interaction with the North only started in the time frame you've elected to fixate on.

It would also make sense if our resistance started in the 80s -- when oil was discovered.

America and Israel were going to be on your side all the way, what an epic lie. It was this form of thinking that made the south Sudanese vote for independence.

Why is it that Northerners almost invariably seem to be affected by some sort of amnesia when recalling historical events?

You were the largest recipient of U.S. military aid in Africa (after Egypt) until 1989; we were with the Soviets during the entire Cold war, so it's laughable that you would try to attribute our movements to a power that supplied you with C-130 Hercules aircraft and M60 Patton tanks.

The United States didn't even start taking hostile action against you until you decided to back Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait; Saddam provided you with arms, so your support for him was a product of that largesse.

Israel came to us after you inexplicably declared war on them; your commitment to the Arab cause is ridiculous, and we saw this in your deployments to Iraq during the Iraq-Iran war -- where you were more Arab than all the other Arabs in the war against the Persians; we saw this in Yemen; and we saw it again in Libya.

You are still acting like poodles of the Arab world.
 
Last edited:
However, most south Sudanese people are uneducated (no offence wallahi). By uneducated, I mean how many south Sudanese knew the actual oil reserves of southern Sudan at the time? Did they know that the oil was not permanent? Did they know that the price of oil was going to collapse in 2015? Were they aware of the the centuries old hate between Nuer and Dinka before Britain put the 2 Sudan’s together into 1?
South Sudan’s war already costed 400,000 lives and that figure was from back in 2016 (could be well more).


I think I've already established that oil was not the reason we took up arms against the Afro-Arabs in the center -- Khartoum-Omdurman; and in the periphery -- the Baggara of Kordofan and Darfur.


Did you know that we answered the Mahdi's call for a war of liberation against the British and dutifully expelled them from the South after the Mahdi promised an end to slave raids on fellow Sudanese?


Do you know what you people did after we forced the British out of our region at the behest of our Northern 'brothers'?


You reneged on the agreement and resumed military actions and slave raids against us; we then forced the Mahdists out of the South and came to realise that you people were scorpions in human form; you couldn't ever be trusted and we couldn't ever be complacent with you.


We had to oppose you; resist you; and fight you at every turn. Unlike every other non-Arab region in Sudan...we were never going to accept being lorded over by you -- no matter the costs.


Sudan could have enjoyed peace after the 1972 Addis Ababa Agreement, but you completely tore up and scrapped the Addis Ababa peace Agreement and your reasoning for it was mind-boggling... your elites said that it wasn't as if it was as holy as the Quran and so why abide by it.


The unofficial casualty estimate for South Sudan's totally unnecessary civil war is 400, 000 and it's a terrible indictment against us and will forever be an unforgivable and shameful chapter in our history.


I feel compelled to make it clear that we were losing close to 100, 000 lives every year during the Sudanese 2nd civil war, so were certainly not better off with you.


now of course I am not going to say that the north is innocent. In no way or shape of form will I suggest that the south returns to to north and especially not in the current climate and economic crisis/instability we have.

How generous of you to concede that you weren't in fact fluffy, innocent angels doing the Lord's work and that it was actually atrocious. That's progress, of a kind.


What northern leaders did to the south was atrocious and stupid. Did you know how many northerners actually supported Garang and his vision? + what territories are you referring to? The ones that you were losing to the north? We were one country

Your apparent support for Garang's vision was only ever theoretical -> worthless; you people only ever opposed regimes in Khartoum when cooking oil, flour and bread became a little too expensive in Khartoum-Omdurman; your bravery came to the fore on those occasions. Bravo!


Where were your apparently brave and 'revolutionary' protests for us when we were being bombed into oblivion and lost millions of lives; you said nothing when Darfur was subject to a sliver of our experience; you were again quite as mice when war erupted in Kordofan and Blue Nile.


You annexed Lebanon sized areas like Kafia Kingi in the 60s; the Upper Nile-While Nile border moved 90km South since 1956; the Unity triangle was taken from the South. It doesn't matter if we were one Country because stealing from your brother is still stealing.


We didn't create this atmosphere of North-South hatred; for many of you in Khartoum-Omdurman, the war was so far removed from your everyday lives that it may very well have taken place in Narnia.


The 'enemy' we encountered on the battlefields (much to our annoyance) were Fur, Masalit, Zaghawa and even Nuba; even the Baggara were restricted to paramilitary operations, and were somewhat insulated from the just consequences of a war that should touched everyone. If misery is to be had, it should be shared.


This isn't a fun little debate over distant and remote historical events; it's not an indulgent exercise in honing my debating skills; every bloodline of my being (all 4) have lost dozens of family members; you shouldn't dare taunt us and scratch at still fresh wounds...


..Let's allow some space for us to heal as sons and daughters of Greater Sudan; God willing, we will reconcile and restore our brotherhood and take back Sudanese land (Halaib triangle) from the Egyptians and give it back to the noble Beja...


..But until then, please -respectfully- KEEP YOUR MOUTH SHUT!
 
Last edited:
Top