Will FGS Colllapse in 2024/2025 ?

[GaradShabeel]

True that. Big tribes in Galmudug have signed treaties with shabaab to not get involved with the liberation of the country in return those clans will get safe passage through the lands and a shabaab free zone

Forget about clans, even FMS are in cahoot with them. You think KG gov't would survive without any agreement AS? The provincial capital is an island in a sea of AS held territory

 

[Step a side]

Forget about clans, even FMS are in cahoot with them. You think KG gov't would survive without any agreement AS? The provincial capital is an island in a sea of AS held territory

Kkk alshabaab is ingrained deep in our society I geuss. Where would you start if you was the president of Somalia who wants to liberate the nation from these tyrants. Remember the government is 50% Shabaab themselves.

 

[Abaq]

With the collapse of the Galguduud campaign and AS at the gates of Adan Yabaal and Atmis leaving, I predict the following:

• Total collapse of Galmudug, Hirshabeelle and KGS as AS overrun them
• HG will return to their pre-Galmudug era with each sub administering their own area. There might be a resurgence of ASWJ. Marehan will keep doing their own thing
• Xawaadle will likely hold their portion of Hiiraan even if they get pushed back a little. Support from Ethio and DDS will continue
• KGS will collapse in its entirety with AS overrunning it in totality. I expect Baidoa to be lost. Bakool Sare will remain a DDS colony protected by Liyu Police
• With the fall of the other states, Kismaayo will be isolated and holding it will be next to impossible. Jubaland will most likely retreat to the border towns. This is unless Madoobe acts decisively now by shoring up his support base Lower Jubba and ensuring the Badhaadhe-Afmadow-Xagar corridor is completely free from AS. Only then will Kismaayo have a chance. If not, he will be forced to either retreat from it or it will be besieged (albeit with a port)

 

[GaradShabeel]

Yeah but still its their own land and also tadjiks en ukbeks have ta country that can back their own people in afganhistan. I remember when pashtuns (taliban) tried to start some shit in pakistan and those curry eating punjabs put them in their place very fast

Being ethno-nationalist has its own ramifications. At least Tadjikistan openly declared support for the 'national resistance front of Afghanistan' led by the tadjik Ahmed Massoud, son of Ahmed Shah Massoud, known as the best guerilla fighter/leader of the 20th century during the war against the communists. But the Talibans gave fierce warnings about repercussions unless they ceased support. They did decrease over time as the rebels lost momentum.

Uzbekistans and Turkmenistans closed their border when the Talibans took over, not even giving opportunity to Uzbeks or Turkmens to cross the border, lol. They also began working with Talibans immediately afterwards. So much for ethno-nationalist unity, I bet Somalis would do the same too

Pakistan are the ones who've built up the Talibans. During the Soviet/Afghan war, they supported Talibans since India, their rival, sided with the monarchist/communist/secular rulers. Once the US overthrew them, Pakistan gave refuge to Talibans and freely crossed the border between the two countries. Without Pakistan, they would've not been able to re-group post-invasion.

Also, Pashtun live in both Pakistan and Afganistan and they don't recognize the borders as they claim that it was made by colonials. The Taliban hold the same views until this day. Not different from Somalis But you're right. It was elite Punjabis that supported Talibans due to geo-politics vis a vis India, and the locals being against it. Now the elites are regretting too given the aftermath in the country.

 

[Mr steal your naag 2]

Being ethno-nationalist has its own ramifications. At least Tadjikistan openly declared support for the 'national resistance front of Afghanistan' led by the tadjik Ahmed Massoud, son of Ahmed Shah Massoud known as the best guerilla fighter/leader of the 20th century, during the war against the communists. But the Talibans gave fierce warnings about repercussions unless they ceases support and over time decreased to when the rebels lost momentum.

Uzbekistans and Turkmenistans border closed their border when the Talibans took over, not even giving opportunity to Uzbeks or Turkmens to cross the border, lol. They also began working with Talibans immediately afterwards too. So much for ethno-nationalist unity, I bet Somalis would do the same too

Pakistan are the ones who've built up the Talibans. During the Soviet/Afghan war, they supported Talibans since India, their rival, sided with the monarchs/communist/secular rulers. Once the US overthrew them, Pakistan gave refuge to Talibans and freely crossed the border between the two countries. Without Pakistan, they would've not been able to re-group post-invasion.

Also, Pashtun live in both Pakistan and Afganistan and they don't recognize the borders as they claim that it was made by colonials. Even by the Taliban til this day. Not different from Somalis But you're right. It was elite Punjabis that supported Talibans due to India's support for the other side, and the locals being against it. Now the elites are regretting too given their the aftermath in the country.

They dont have the heart to be tribalistic. Also nobody wants to annex them since you have to deal with their population to so they let afganistan be

 

[GaradShabeel]

With the collapse of the Galguduud campaign and AS at the gates of Adan Yabaal and Atmis leaving, I predict the following:

• Total collapse of Galmudug, Hirshabeelle and KGS as AS overrun them
• HG will return to their pre-Galmudug era with each sub administering their own area. There might be a resurgence of ASWJ. Marehan will keep doing their own thing
• Xawaadle will likely hold their portion of Hiiraan even if they get pushed back a little. Support from Ethio and DDS will continue
• KGS will collapse in its entirety with AS overrunning it in totality. I expect Baidoa to be lost. Bakool Sare will remain a DDS colony protected by Liyu Police
• With the fall of the other states, Kismaayo will be isolated and holding it will be next to impossible. Jubaland will most likely retreat to the border towns. This is unless Madoobe acts decisively now by shoring up his support base Lower Jubba and ensuring the Badhaadhe-Afmadow-Xagar corridor is completely free from AS. Only then will Kismaayo have a chance. If not, he will be forced to either retreat from it or it will be besieged (albeit with a port)

I agree with pretty much everything.

In terms of JL, why is there a focus to go after Buale and riverine areas as soon as possible? Is it not better to completely wipe AS of the western side of the river, urban and rual area alike, up until the borders with Kenya, unlike the eastern side where they completely control it?

Once you've solidified and assert control of the western side (the majority of JL's landmass), then move on more comfortably to the other side. This seems to be the most logical way to go.

 

[Abaq]

I agree with pretty much everything.

In terms of JL, why is the plan to go after Buale as soon as possibly? Is it not better to completely wipe AS of the western side of the river, urban and rual area alike, unlike the east side where they completely control it?

Once you've solidified and assert control of the west side (the majority of JL's landmass), then move on to the other side. This seems to be the most strategic plan.

Our terrorist uncle is not sincere about fighting AS. Otherwise there is no reason why AS should control Badhaadhe which is surrounded by Jubaland bases

 

[Hilmaam]

With the collapse of the Galguduud campaign and AS at the gates of Adan Yabaal and Atmis leaving, I predict the following:

• Total collapse of Galmudug, Hirshabeelle and KGS as AS overrun them
• HG will return to their pre-Galmudug era with each sub administering their own area. There might be a resurgence of ASWJ. Marehan will keep doing their own thing
• Xawaadle will likely hold their portion of Hiiraan even if they get pushed back a little. Support from Ethio and DDS will continue
• KGS will collapse in its entirety with AS overrunning it in totality. I expect Baidoa to be lost. Bakool Sare will remain a DDS colony protected by Liyu Police
• With the fall of the other states, Kismaayo will be isolated and holding it will be next to impossible. Jubaland will most likely retreat to the border towns. This is unless Madoobe acts decisively now by shoring up his support base Lower Jubba and ensuring the Badhaadhe-Afmadow-Xagar corridor is completely free from AS. Only then will Kismaayo have a chance. If not, he will be forced to either retreat from it or it will be besieged (albeit with a port)

Having Madobee who is stabilizing and consistent power helps plus he has a lot of experience fighting Al shabab in kismayo. Sometimes unknowns around elections causes way more harm than good. You guys also have benefit of being bordered by country who has been massacred by Al shabab and will want buffer so Madobe will have some support to muster defense of city. I agree though now is time to strike and build up defenses and free the areas you listed. Let Al shabab fight two major front and see what happens

 

[Superiorabdi]

Our terrorist uncle is not sincere about fighting AS. Otherwise there is no reason why AS should control Badhaadhe which is surrounded by Jubaland bases

That always confused , getting rid of AS in Badhaadhe should be very easy but no move has been made .

 

[KawhiLeonard]

@Hilmaam there was a time when the government controlled only a few districts of mogadishu

this was alshabab control map 2015

this is the map today:

obviously we've suffered some setbacks this past week


but we forget about how hopeless and fucked up the situation was just a few years ago.

alshabaab is still very strong and not to be underestimated, but imo they're past their prime.


stop dooming bro, the fight is a march not a sprint . alshabab understands this and are using every move in the arsenal to demoralize people.

 

[Hilmaam]

@Hilmaam there was a time when the government controlled only a few districts of mogadishu

View attachment 291812



this was alshabab control map 2015

View attachment 291813


this is the map today:

View attachment 291814


obviously we've suffered some setbacks this past week


but we forget about how hopeless and fucked up the situation was just a few years ago.

alshabaab is still very strong and not to be underestimated, but imo they're past their prime.


stop dooming bro, the fight is a march not a sprint . alshabab understands this and are using every move in the arsenal to demoralize people.

iA they will be defeated. Yeah last couple weeks been rough and war being politicalized made me skeptical.

good reminder how far we came. HSM declaring war on Al shabab defiantly weakened them look how vibrant and safe xamar has been due to this offensive. I hope HSM gets us back on track and wipes them out from remaining land and avenges all the innocent civilians they’ve killed

 

[Hilmaam]

some leaders calling for postponement of ATMIS drawdown.

 

[GaradShabeel]

some leaders calling for postponement of ATMIS drawdown.

It's going to be hard to achieve a postponement of ATMIS. There're no budget there to support them. The only way possible is if HSM manages to a get financial support from some of our international partners which is highly unlikely.

 

[Hilmaam]

It's going to be hard to achieve a postponement of ATMIS. There's no budget to support them and no financial support from IC.

It seems to be done deal. Here is rep visiting, saying bases and fight has to be taken over by Somalia from ATMIS and it’s Somalia sovereign responsibility . He also mentioned majority of the UN equipment will be donated to FGS

 

[Burqad]

It's going to be hard to achieve a postponement of ATMIS. There're no budget there to support them. The only way possible is if HSM manages to a get financial support from some of our international partners which is highly unlikely.

ATMIS is worthless and having “our African brothers” in Somalia only futhers clan oppression and helps AS recruit. When the swahilis leave, Somalis will have to treat each other more equally rather than sic Africans on each other.

 

[GaradShabeel]

ATMIS is worthless and having “our African brothers” in Somalia only futhers clan oppression and helps AS recruit. When the swahilis leave, Somalis will have to treat each other more equally rather than sic Africans on each other.

I know that they are useless and do very little in terms of fighting against AS. However, I'd be lying if said that without ATMIS presence in Somalia with 10s of thousands soldiers, military bases and equipments, it wouldn't embolden AS. Some of these military equipments will be donated and you'll most likely see AS raiding these bases shortly after their departure, unless AS is severely weakened.

 

[GaradShabeel]

It seems to be done deal. Here is rep visiting, saying bases and fight has to be taken over by Somalia from ATMIS and it’s Somalia sovereign responsibility . He also mentioned majority of the UN equipment will be donated to FGS

It's starting to get more serious that we are on our own now. No more relying on IC

On another note, as long as the GM liberation efforts finishes within a few months and we get firm control of central Somalia without any risk of falling back to AS, then I wouldn't be worried about the timeline of phase 2 in Hiiraan/KG/JL.

 

[reer]

Forget about clans, even FMS are in cahoot with them. You think KG gov't would survive without any agreement AS? The provincial capital is an island in a sea of AS held territory

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

 

[GaradShabeel]

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

 

[reer]

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.