Will FGS Colllapse in 2024/2025 ?

[Mr steal your naag 2]

Afghanistan situation as in all the weapons west provides falls into the hands of other side.

Xamar being overrun and Al shabab being main power in Somalia.

I think you right might mean country being split by different powers but will mean this war will go indefinitely and we won’t have peace for long time to come.

Is it official that amisom is leaving in 2024?

 

[GaradShabeel]

I doubt shabaab wants to conquer the world. They would have united us to March towards Ethiopia by now. The bombing in Kenya is just a pretext to have KDF in Jubaland.

Of course they can't, as they lack the capabilities. But their vision is surely to conquer the world with allied militant organizations.

How come they are targeting Ethiopia and Kenya if they're planning to remain in Somalia. It surely involves more than just a 'pretext' and 'collaboration' from KDF. Do you even know how bad it has gotten lately in NFD? Not only attacks, but even growing support from the locals.

In Ethiopia, they've made several attempts but failed massively since they lack support on the ground and ENDF/Liyu being in control of the borders. All of this attacks in neighboring countries despite not controlling all of Somalia. What does this tell you?

 

[Dagdag]

it’s an insult to the mighty sophisticated Taliban to compare them to Shabaab. No one on earth sees Somalia as a threat. They laugh at us with this Shabaab stuff

The taliban had an army of 100k and repeatedly defeated NATO in multiple battles. AS are losers who hide in the jungle and wear flip-flops.

All those years taliban barely did any damage to west 10 year war only 3500 dead. west is on different level than us. Al shabab and Taliban can only do sneak attacks, mines and suicide bombings. But I do agree Taliban has more resources and troops than Al shabab

 

[GaradShabeel]

Is it official that amisom is leaving in 2024?

Yes, a few thousands have already left and they will continue leaving until the end of 2024 when they'll be totally gone from Somalia.

 

[Dagdag]

Is it official that amisom is leaving in 2024?

Yeah they are currently doing drawn down

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Taliban is supported by Pashtuns the largest tribe in Afghanistan different dynamics at play here al shabaab uses marginalized tribes

 

[Dagdag]

At the end of the day they are illiterate malnourished niggas wearing sandals and they look very goofy

Noble talibanView attachment 291731

Langaab al shabab mfs dont even have shoes View attachment 291732

The Taliban getting shoes and arms from corrupt govt. the west wasted billions and 10 years to realize democracy wasn’t happening in Afghanistan

 

[Dagdag]

I mean what's stopping AS from overrunning all military bases? They are successful at doing it today despite all types of support from shisheeye. Imagine when they are gone?

Also, do you think they may take over Xamar? I'm sure it will be one of their first targets.

I’m leaning towards fgs being routed and Al shabab taking over. Yes including xamar some states in north might survive though.
Democracy doesn’t seem to work in Somalia. Maybe if we get dictator who rallies everyone they might be able to face Al shabab but right now fgs being pulled in 10 different directions

 

[Mr steal your naag 2]

Yes, a few thousands have already left and they will continue leaving until the end of 2024 when they'll be totally gone from Somalia.

Yeah they are currently doing drawn down

Are the americans also leaving that is a gamechanger not the useless bantus that sit in their bases all day

 

[GaradShabeel]

Taliban is supported by Pashtuns the largest tribe in Afghanistan different dynamics at play here al shabaab uses marginalized tribes

The problem in Somalia is not the capabilities of the ragtag terrorists, but rather the corruption, infiltration/AS supporters at the top, divisions, advancing clan interests, not being serious about AS etc. and many other factor preventing us to remove them. In Afghanistan, the Talibans have a wide support which is not the case here.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

The IC funds Arsenal more than the somali govt.

As long us they are present in somalia then somali is doomed.
Somalis is the only african country thay was colonised by 3 european nations supported by primitive abysninians.

 

[Dagdag]

Taliban is supported by Pashtuns the largest tribe in Afghanistan different dynamics at play here al shabaab uses marginalized tribes

Al shabab has some support by big tribes as well

 

[GaradShabeel]

Are the americans also leaving that is a gamechanger not the useless bantus that sit in their bases all day

I'm not sure about the Americans. They're very few of them to begin with and they barely engage with AS either. It seems like Ethiopia/ENDF (and possibly Kenya/KDF) outside of ATMIS may participate in the second phase.

 

[Mr steal your naag 2]

Taliban is supported by Pashtuns the largest tribe in Afghanistan different dynamics at play here al shabaab uses marginalized tribes

Its crazy that the other tribes in afghanistan are not tribalistic the same way we are qabilistic. Why do tadjiks and uzbeks allow shisheeye (pashtuns) to walk arround in their land with guns

 

[Step a side]

Al shabab has some support by big tribes as well

True that. Big tribes in Galmudug have signed treaties with shabaab to not get involved with the liberation of the country in return those clans will get safe passage through the lands and a shabaab free zone

 

[GaradShabeel]

Its crazy that the other tribes in afghanistan are not tribalistic the same way we are qabilistic. Why do tadjiks and uzbeks allow shisheeye (pashtuns) to walk arround in their land with guns

They outnumber them, but also more dedicated in their cause than Tadjiks/Uzbeks/Hazaras. The Pashtun fighters are also straight from the mountains compared to the more urban fighters of the other ethnic groups and hence more terrible at fighting.

 

[Step a side]

They outnumber them, but also more dedicated in their cause than Tadjiks/Uzbeks/Hazaras. The Pashtun fighters are also straight from the mountains compares to the more urban people of the other ethnic groups and hence suck at fighting.

Most Hazaras are Shia as well. They not serious about all of this to begin with

 

[GaradShabeel]

Most Hazaras are Shia as well. They not serious about all of this to begin with

Unfortunately, they are xoog'd. Just when they thought that it was bad for them with Taliban, Daesh came into the picture after the takeover of Taliban. Now they face even more attacks. Iran doesn't care enough to get involved outside of giving condemnation. For them, political interests > deen

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Its crazy that the other tribes in afghanistan are not tribalistic the same way we are qabilistic. Why do tadjiks and uzbeks allow shisheeye (pashtuns) to walk arround in their land with guns

Pashtuns are around 40 percent of the Afghan population they have the tyranny of numbers if one tribe in Somalia was almost half the population our geopolitical situation would be totally different

 

[Mr steal your naag 2]

They outnumber them, but also more dedicated in their cause than Tadjiks/Uzbeks/Hazaras. The Pashtun fighters are also straight from the mountains compared to the more urban fighters of the other ethnic groups and hence more terrible at fighting.

Yeah but still its their own land and also tadjiks en ukbeks have ta country that can back their own people in afganhistan. I remember when pashtuns (taliban) tried to start some shit in pakistan and those curry eating punjabs put them in their place very fast