Will FGS Colllapse in 2024/2025 ?

[Hilmaam]

Previous Farmaajo administration made no attempt to fight Al shabab and it got wealthy of taxes and free reign. New administration lead by HSM is also failing in its fight against Al shabab. He was supposed to be the experienced hawiyee leader who would free capital and their land from their terror. Now we are seeing offensive falling apart and hawiyee splintering. On top of that funding and ATMIs troops will all be gone end of 2024. Perfect recipe for a disaster

 

[Hilmaam]

FMS are also on shaky ground with many clan enclaves with power shared by few. The two most stable FMS Puntland and Somaliland both showing cracks this year with looming elections and infighting. Even worse there is possibility of massive war between the two and potential new FMS Khatumo state that can have many unpredictable effects.

The other FMSs have huge swaths of land missing to Al shabab and are already in precarious situation…

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Honestly if shabaab isn’t cleared out of Somalia and Atmis leaves by the end of 2024 it will leave southern and central Somalia in a difficult situation unless the arms embargo is lifted which is handicapping us militarily

 

[SamaaleCushite]

no, but as time goes on a multi clan force of determined young men and women may defeat all clans in a series of costly battles and unify the country it is the general trend of clan/tribal people across human history.

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[Hilmaam]

no, but as time goes on a multi clan force of determined young men and women may defeat all clans in a series of costly battles and unify the country it is the general trend of clan/tribal people across human history.

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I believe this how ICU formed issue was it made threats to west and neighboring countires. Led to west sabotaging it by funding warlords and then finally funding Ethiopia to stomp it out. Never understood why Somalia wasn’t enough of a challenge and they had to go look for trouble. But could also be fake news and justification for Ethiopia since they saw country was stabilizing not sure who provoked who first

 

[Hilmaam]

Honestly if shabaab isn’t cleared out of Somalia and Atmis leaves by the end of 2024 it will leave southern and central Somalia in a difficult situation unless the arms embargo is lifted which is handicapping us militarily

but doesn’t build confidence when bases are overrun and Al shabab plunders million in weapons and armor. Plus we have alot of corruption with military personal selling food, gas, and even weapons to clans and Al shabab. It will be tough to lift ban I think . We had years to prove competence

many in west unfortunately will draw parallels between us and Afghanistan

 

[GaradShabeel]

I think it will depend on how successful the liberation effort goes. If AS is cleared from the country by the time ATMIS leave in the end of 2024, then HSM will remain until the next election. However, if AS manages to hold on to their territory and little progress are made to remove them, then the gov't will most likely not survive. In fact, I'm afraid that AS will also be able to take over more land and with them advancing that some may even change sides leading for a possibly collapse of FGS.

 

[Hilmaam]

I think it will depend on how successful the liberation effort goes. If AS is cleared from the country by the time ATMIS leave in the end of 2024, then HSM will remain until the next election. However, if AS manages to hold on to their territory and the little progress are made to remove them, then the gov't will probably most likely not survive. In fact, I'm afraid that AS will also be able to take over more land and with them advancing that some may even change sides.

Good point. A lot at stake next 15 months. It will also be interesting to see how much support al shabab has once they can’t say they are fighting foreigners and ATMIS leaves . they always equate democracy to being Christian but will that motivate people same as African occupying force.

the other thing I’m curious about is if their strategy will change from hit and run and suicide attacks once ATMIS leaves. Makes it hard to stomp them out. We need one decisive battle to settle things and no more cowardly hit and runs and suicide attacks

 

[GaradShabeel]

FMS are also on shaky ground with many clan enclaves with power shared by few. The two most stable FMS Puntland and Somaliland both showing cracks this year with looming elections and infighting. Even worse there is possibility of massive war between the two and potential new FMS Khatumo state that can have many unpredictable effects.

The other FMSs have huge swaths of land missing to Al shabab and are already in precarious situation…

What's happening in the north with SL, PL and SSC will have little effect on AS. These states are more or less independent from south/FGS today and I don't think SL nor PL will crumble either. A direct confrontation between PL and SL may end up becoming the biggest destabilizing factor, but it seems unlikely for now.

 

[unique username]

Good point. A lot at stake next 15 months. It will also be interesting to see how much support al shabab has once they can’t say they are fighting foreigners and ATMIS leaves . they always equate democracy to being Christian but will that motivate people same as African occupying force.

the other thing I’m curious about is if their strategy will change from hit and run and suicide attacks once ATMIS leaves. Makes it hard to stomp them out. We need one decisive battle to settle things and no more cowardly hit and runs and suicide attacks

They will just say that a rival clan is coming to take your land, like how they are trying to do in galmudug. Making the whole thing clan war

 

[GaradShabeel]

Good point. A lot at stake next 15 months. It will also be interesting to see how much support al shabab has once they can’t say they are fighting foreigners and ATMIS leaves . they always equate democracy to being Christian but will that motivate people same as African occupying force.

I don't think their remaining supporters today believe in the foreign presence bs. That's was very much rampant in the beginning. Today, I believe it has more to do with either ideological supporters or reasons where a clan may 'benefit' more under AS than FGS.

the other thing I’m curious about is if their strategy will change from hit and run and suicide attacks once ATMIS leaves. Makes it hard to stomp them out. We need one decisive battle to settle things and no more cowardly hit and runs and suicide attacks

This may happen in regions where they control the rural areas and the urban areas free from AS. In such as case, they can just mobilize many foot soldiers and do a mass attack. What can you do when you're surrounded? Especially without air support or without supplying route? Not much.

But it will also turn into more of a clannish warfare. It will be less of AS attacking you but more of a specific clan attacking you. This will take us back to the 90s when everyone controlled their own clan territory. Those weak clans or clans with much divisions will probably end up falling to AS.

 

[Mr steal your naag 2]

Previous Farmaajo administration made no attempt to fight Al shabab and it got wealthy of taxes and free reign. New administration lead by HSM is also failing in its fight against Al shabab. He was supposed to be the experienced hawiyee leader who would free capital and their land from their terror. Now we are seeing offensive falling apart and hawiyee splintering. On top of that funding and ATMIs troops will all be gone end of 2024. Perfect recipe for a disaster

could it be a afganistan situation i doubt that Also what do you consider colapsing? Xamar getting overun by al shabab or al shabab taking small tuulos what they allready have done. Qabyalad will make sure somalia doesnt end up like afganistan

 

[Step a side]

it’s an insult to the mighty sophisticated Taliban to compare them to Shabaab. No one on earth sees Somalia as a threat. They laugh at us with this Shabaab stuff

 

[Burqad]

it’s an insult to the mighty sophisticated Taliban to Shabaab. No one on earth sees Somalia as a threat. They laugh at us with this Shabaab stuff

The taliban had an army of 100k and repeatedly defeated NATO in multiple battles. AS are losers who hide in the jungle and wear flip-flops.

 

[GaradShabeel]

it’s an insult to the mighty sophisticated Taliban to Shabaab. No one on earth sees Somalia as a threat. They laugh at us with this Shabaab stuff

Ethiopia and Kenya/EAC see AS as a threat to their stability.

If AS takes over, the US/EU will end up giving up on Somalia and leave it be like Taliban. The difference between Taliban and AS is that Taliban is a nationalistic movement who wants to stick to their country, while AS wants to conquer to the world. AS surely needs a reality check with their massive ego

 

[Hilmaam]

could it be a afganistan situation i doubt that? Also what do you consider colapsing? Xamar getting overun by al shabab or al shabab taking small tuulos what they allready have done. Qabyalad will make sure somalia doesnt end up like afganistan

Afghanistan situation as in all the weapons west provides falls into the hands of other side.

Xamar being overrun and Al shabab being main power in Somalia.

I think you right might mean country being split by different powers but will mean this war will go indefinitely and we won’t have peace for long time to come.

 

[Gaandheri]

It won’t happen but if it does you have yours truly dal-xoreeye to thank for it.

 

[GaradShabeel]

Afghanistan situation as in all the weapons west provides falls into the hands of other side.

Xamar being overrun and Al shabab being main power in Somalia.

I think you right might mean country being split by different poses but will mean this war will go indefinitely and we won’t have peace for long time to come.

I mean what's stopping AS from overrunning all military bases? They are successful at doing it today despite all types of support from shisheeye. Imagine when they are gone?

Also, do you think they may take over Xamar? I'm sure it will be one of their first targets.

 

[Mr steal your naag 2]

it’s an insult to the mighty sophisticated Taliban to compare them to Shabaab. No one on earth sees Somalia as a threat. They laugh at us with this Shabaab stuff

At the end of the day they are illiterate malnourished niggas wearing sandals and they look very goofy

Noble taliban

Langaab al shabab mfs dont even have shoes

 

[Step a side]

Ethiopia and Kenya/EAC see AS as a threat.

If AS takes over, the US/EU will end up give up on Somalia and leave it be like Taliban. The difference between Taliban and AS is that Taliban is a nationalistic movement who want to stick to their country, while AS wants to conquer to the world. AS needs a reality check with their massive ego

I doubt shabaab wants to conquer the world. They would have united us to March towards Ethiopia by now. The bombing in Kenya is just a pretext to have KDF in Jubaland.