BREAKING NEWS Veteran lawmaker Abdi Hashi Abdullahi re-elected Speaker of the Upper House of Somalia Parliament with 28 votes in the first round

cow

VIP
everyone knew abdi xaashi would win however to only win with 28 is actually very concerning for mucaaridka. haashi should have had 40 votes not 28.

this means N&N has minimum 24 votes from there for presidential election. as their candidate salaax ahmed got 24 votes. it also means the lowerhouse will be a blowout N&N will win in a landslide.
 

bidenkulaha

GalYare
everyone knew abdi xaashi would win however to only win with 28 is actually very concerning for mucaaridka. haashi should have had 40 votes not 28.

this means N&N has minimum 24 votes from there for presidential election. as their candidate salaax ahmed got 24 votes. it also means the lowerhouse will be a blowout N&N will win in a landslide.
Like always when N&N fail they claim everyone is N&N lol.

Both Hashi and Jamac were running on protecting rule of law and impartiality of speaker position. They were not running to be a Farmaajo lackey like Mursal.

Jamac is in Rooble’s circle. He was a good candidate but Hashi is experienced and tried and tested
 

cow

VIP
Basic mathematics say 24 is a good number :hmm:

it is a good number i was expecting abdi xaashi to get 40 votes. not just make it with 28 specially since aqalka sare favours puntland and madoobe. them two combined alone have 19 votes.

so it means N&N got a lot of votes from other maamuls. while in aqalka hoose puntland plus kismaayo have less then koonfur galbeed. add to that 16 from ceel qaalow wont be allowed to vote.
 

DR OSMAN

AF NAAREED
VIP
Round 1 elections

Farmajo will secure 60 votes(rahanwayn portion) of the 77
Deni will secure 37 from PL and at least 20 from JL.

The HAGS will be split and only secure small portions from HAG clans

Xaaf = 3 votes
Abdishakur = 3 votes
HSM = 3 votes
Sharif = 3 votes
Kheyre = 9 votes

If HAGS don't get behind 1 candidate that can guarantee '30' votes or more, they won't pass into round 2 and be left behind.

Somaliland will be interesting. Hashi camp is an ally of Deni and has a strong pull among somaliland, but he will be competing against Mahdi Guleed who is a loyalist to Farmajo for SL votes.

About 100 votes are up-for-grabs in the HAG bloc plus Minorities. Deni must spend 'cash' on the minorities but not the HAGS and guarantee lucrative positions among the HAG portion. Only spend money on HAGS if u can't offer them any big positions.
 
Round 1 elections

If Farmaajo really has SW and SL state MPs (69+46 seats) vote in lock, it must be game over. He wouldn't have gone through all these troubles to secure 16 instead of 10 seats in Gedo. So he must be worried about a deal between the others.

The reality is, as long as the opposition is fractured, he has every chance. No single opposition figure has yet to accumulate enough seats. Not Madoobe, Deni, or the ex-Pres gang.

So who's gonna give way?
 

DR OSMAN

AF NAAREED
VIP
Farmajo has PL/JL votes. At least 50 without including 'ceel-waaq portion'. He is relying on 'HG, Abgal, Murusade) who have around 30, and Isaaq who has 30. Even with this, He has 110 MPS secured.

U need 51% or more in Round 2 to win. Parliament is 275, so you need 138 or more. Deni I don't think can secure this and judging by the upper house results, it's going to round 3 where it will be just 'one vote' difference to decide winner.

I urge Deni to start calling 'xawaalas' and laying down 'southern dirs and hag smaller clans' names and use the hawala as a 'damiin' if these rats don't prove they voted for him by taking photo of they're vote, no money coming into their account.
 
Farmajo has PL/JL votes. At least 50 without including 'ceel-waaq portion'. He is relying on 'HG, Abgal, Murusade) who have around 30, and Isaaq who has 30. Even with this, He has 110 MPS secured.

U need 51% or more in Round 2 to win. Parliament is 275, so you need 138 or more. Deni I don't think can secure this and judging by the upper house results, it's going to round 3 where it will be just 'one vote' difference to decide winner.

I urge Deni to start calling 'xawaalas' and laying down 'southern dirs and hag smaller clans' names and use the hawala as a 'damiin' if these rats don't prove they voted for him by taking photo of they're vote, no money coming into their account.

Deni will end PL breakaway autonomy and bring it under FGS control if he becomes federal president
 
Round 1 elections

Farmajo will secure 60 votes(rahanwayn portion) of the 77
Deni will secure 37 from PL and at least 20 from JL.

The HAGS will be split and only secure small portions from HAG clans

Xaaf = 3 votes
Abdishakur = 3 votes
HSM = 3 votes
Sharif = 3 votes
Kheyre = 9 votes

If HAGS don't get behind 1 candidate that can guarantee '30' votes or more, they won't pass into round 2 and be left behind.

Somaliland will be interesting. Hashi camp is an ally of Deni and has a strong pull among somaliland, but he will be competing against Mahdi Guleed who is a loyalist to Farmajo for SL votes.

About 100 votes are up-for-grabs in the HAG bloc plus Minorities. Deni must spend 'cash' on the minorities but not the HAGS and guarantee lucrative positions among the HAG portion. Only spend money on HAGS if u can't offer them any big positions.

Sxb you do realize that Deni has left his Presidential Campaign in Mogadishu and made Alliance with Roobles Teams to secure the PM Post.

There is an active Coup happening in Puntland being done by the Dhullos and Deni is on his way back to Puntland to sack the Dhulo VP.





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cow

VIP
Deni will end PL breakaway autonomy and bring it under FGS control if he becomes federal president

Ileen war ba mahasiid. Karash has done coup. He is currently now in gaalkacyo because od deni's assassination attempts on foreign minister. Expect in the coming hours or day. Karaash will say deni is a criminal that was behind the whole thing.

 

DR OSMAN

AF NAAREED
VIP
@cow @Bariire Deni is outside Puntland jurisdiction and isn't on government duties but his own political aspirations. As for Deni getting PM, no HAG stands a chance waryaa, don't you see how many candidates they field? they won't even get past round 1 securing 30 votes, let alone round 2 where u ned 138 or 51% majority, this election is a tight race between Deni n Farmajo and it will go into third round where one vote means the difference. This is unpredictable when u enter third round.

Farmajo hasn't got 30 votes from HAG(hg, abgal, murusade) but he is relying on the other 30 langaabs and he is doing the same strategy on the dir portion, getting the other 30 langaabs outside Isaaq. This isn't a time to play games and clan love, u only serving the interest of Farmajo. HAG is out in round 1 unless they back one HAG candidate which won't ever happen. HAG division is what may give farmajo a second term.
 
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