Pretty sure Oromo will succeed too I wonder if Harar region will be apart of oromia. U.S delegate
You're right I heard there are delegates from America and the E.U in Addis Ababa trying to make sure if Ethiopia disintegrates that its without war. Tigray are preparing for war and have all the heavy military equipment and war planes and everything thats why Abiy didn't invade or use military force in the Tigray region like he did in the Somali region. I wonder what role will the oil in the Somali region will play in all of this.Thanks for "the food for thought". Interesting indeed! I must disagree on the idea though because without even going any further just the case of Somalia destroys the whole concept that says having a homogeneous society as being a condition for democracy. My view is that democracy is a constant engagement between different ideas, cultures, ideologies, way of life and what not. In a homogeneous society you may have less spots of friction but still unless you as a society don't learn how to engage with diverse ideas and way of life and unless you learn how to tolerate and give space to diversity, then you will have always a problem. So, I think the main issue is not how diverse a society is but how it can handle its own diversities fairly and in a tolerant manner.
Come to your question. If we can disintegrate without bloodshed and destruction, peacefully then I would definitely consider disintegration as an alternative option. May be for some regions, secession brings prosperity, who knows. But in our case we have seen what happened with Eritrea with whom we have a colonial demarcated border. Now Ethio-Eritrean border war happened while having a colonial border, imagine what would happen to the rest of the regions with no colonial border whatsoever. It is clear for every sane person to see that any secession in Ethiopia case will trigger a border war with its immediate neighbors with others supporting opposing sides and fueling the conflict. So it may seem a promising future but in reality it could end up in a very catastrophic mess. And at the end, we probably end up with no single internationally recognized country but a bunch of mini states run by war lords cutting off their people from international trade, development etc. It will only be a mess. Instead of risking this mess, let us bring a fully democratic self rule to the regions. In my view this option has a more pragmatic and promising path to bring development and prosperity to our peoples.