SWS addresses situation in Baidoa.

Barawe isn’t even about HG or anything. Most of shabellaha hoose’s HG influence is military. But we’re outnumbered by Mudulood, Gaaljecel.

Barawe is populated by abgaal, Murusade, hg (mostly Cayr) and hilibi Darandole. The city is hawiye dominated by a combination of military and population.

It’s also the case Hawiye dominate the route in and out of the place. To change demographics would require a lot and to change military dynamics is impossible. Just look at the last fighting in Barawe where KG darawish surrendered as they had no connection by land to Barawe while SNA had direct resupply and reinforcements from Marka, Afgoye, Xamar route.

It’s not in Kg interest to move closer to Xamar/shabellaha hoose. Gaaljecel will benefit, HG will benefit, Mudulood will benefit. And the FGS will benefit as Ethiopia is out of the picture. There’s more likelihood of hawiye SNA taking Baydhabo in post ENDF scenario than the other way round
What you are mistaking is that the Baraawe takeover by Rewins will happen at once. It's gonna be gradual.

Already hawiye don't have the same influence they used to in Baraawe. I don't know if your aware but Baraawe is basically in the hands of the Daraawiish SW. SNA have been moved outside the city.

Bit by bit you will be removed untill you find that you hold nothing in shabelada hoose.
 

bidenkulaha

GalYare
Changing the demographic is a stretch, if we're talking about an intentional demographic engineering using all resources available. That's not possible nor on the table.

The only aspect standing in the way for Mirifle today is technically your people, Hawiye, who military dominate Baraawe and AS having presence between Baraawe and Baydhabo. The most likely scenario will be them settling there gradually over time. Which is realistic, given how we've seen how D&M haved moving in droves to Banaadir and Baydhabo over the last 15 years in the millions, from their anccestral land.

With that said, you need to count on Mirifles moving in large number towards the coast as Baraawe gains more significance with the KG state building, and especially if/once the state will (ever) be cleared of AS. As their population grows, so will their political influence. Them not military having presence isn't really important now, and this is what I'm predicting. We'll see if I'm right in due time:manny:
Have you even seen a map of shabellaha hoose? The clan composition is nearer 50-50 these days and that’s including the full Digil confed.

I can name you the military bases. You’ll be surprised
78724561-A769-4563-B224-1D3076469111.jpeg
these routes are completely dominated by Hawiye. If you’re LG where do you even start. You need an airplane to even get through the Gaaljecel land and to the Hiraab land.

It’s like me saying I’ll take Galkayo if I move Galmudug Presidential complex. This is crazy delusional stuff when the SNA in Shabellaha Hoose is the most armed in the country 😂
Bro you guys were complaining about 80 darawish soldiers imagine if they come in the thousands😂😂😂😂😂😂
Wallahi billahi we were not the one’s crying lmao. Y’all resigned from Aden Madoobe’s committee complaining it was biased. Y’all also begged for us to let you take your injured back. We handed y’all injured and the one’s surrendered over cos we’re a dowlad lol but could you imagine if this wasn’t the case and was back in the 90s-2000s when we were taxing y’all to use the river :dead:
 
Changing the demographic is a stretch, if we're talking about an intentional demographic engineering using all resources available. That's not possible nor on the table.

The only aspect standing in the way for Mirifle today is technically your people, Hawiye, who military dominate Baraawe and AS having presence between Baraawe and Baydhabo. The most likely scenario will be them settling there gradually over time. Which is realistic, given how we've seen how D&M have moved in droves to Banaadir and Baydhabo over the last 15 years, in the millions, from their ancestral land.

With that said, you need to count on Mirifles moving in large number towards the coast as Baraawe gains more significance with the KG state building, and especially if/once the state will (ever) be cleared of AS. As their population grows, so will their political influence. Them not military having presence isn't really important now. This is what I'm predicting, based on the given circumstances. We'll see if I'm right in due time:manny:
I couldnt have said it better myself. It's inevitable that Raxanweyn influence will overtime increase in Baraawe and there will be a decrease of Hiraab influence.

We've seen this recently where for the first time ever Mirifle Daraawiish fought in Baraawe a month ago. That itself is evidence that mirifle is gaining power in that region
 
Have you even seen a map of shabellaha hoose? The clan composition is nearer 50-50 these days and that’s including the full Digil confed.

I can name you the military bases. You’ll be surprised
View attachment 284129 these routes are completely dominated by Hawiye. If you’re LG where do you even start. You need an airplane to even get through the Gaaljecel land and to the Hiraab land.

It’s like me saying I’ll take Galkayo if I move Galmudug Presidential complex. This is crazy delusional stuff when the SNA in Shabellaha Hoose is the most armed in the country 😂
Wallahi billahi we were not the one’s crying lmao. Y’all resigned from Aden Madoobe’s committee complaining it was biased. Y’all also begged for us to let you take your injured back. We handed y’all injured and surrendered over cos we’re a dowlad lol but could you imagine if this wasn’t the case and was back in the 90s-2000s when we were taxing y’all to use the river :dead:
Are you forgetting the countless Hawiye elders saying we are brothers please rahanweyn stop the war. The reality is you have got the most to lose in lower shabeele then us.
 

bidenkulaha

GalYare
Are you forgetting the countless Hawiye elders saying we are brothers please rahanweyn stop the war. The reality is you have got the most to lose in lower shabeele then us.
You are speaking about elders whose job it is to call for peace. Do you want our elders to be mooryaans asking for us to start taxing y’all for rivers again 😂

Bro this is how I’m treating y’all in Buulo-mareer, Qoryoole, Afgooye and you’re talking about Barawe Wallahi I try to be nice but we’re running a get rich quick scheme in that place and a RX who’s under siege in baydhabo ain’t changing anything in the next decade by then which Xamar will have conquered all corners of Somalia lol


RX is qoxooti in shabellaha hoose. They literally have no influence and your own Digil don’t want y’all.
 
You are speaking about elders whose job it is to call for peace. Do you want our elders to be mooryaans asking for us to start taxing y’all for rivers again 😂

Bro this is how I’m treating y’all in Buulo-mareer, Qoryoole, Afgooye and you’re talking about Barawe Wallahi I try to be nice but we’re running a get rich quick scheme in that place and a RX who’s under siege in baydhabo ain’t changing anything in the next decade by then which Xamar will have conquered all corners of Somalia lol


RX is qoxooti in shabellaha hoose. They literally have no influence and your own Digil don’t want y’all.
Bro this is why you will be kicked out soon. You are a isbaarista. You think this is something to be proud of.

I can't wait for the day you guys get sent back to dhuusamareeb.
 

bidenkulaha

GalYare
Bro this is why you will be kicked out soon. You are a isbaarista. You think this is something to be proud of.

I can't wait for the day you guys get sent back to dhuusamareeb.
We are never going back to Dhusamareb when our SNA is making all this money 😂

The whole Barawe Xamar route is soon to be expanded to Jilib -Kismayo it’ll be even more lucrative. And the baydhabo -Xamar is a massive money maker. You’re dreaming if we’re giving up those millions, in the meantime these militias will be called SNA and given access to all these new weapons were going to have access to post arms embargo 😂
 
Have you even seen a map of shabellaha hoose? The clan composition is nearer 50-50 these days and that’s including the full Digil confed.

I can name you the military bases. You’ll be surprised
View attachment 284129 these routes are completely dominated by Hawiye. If you’re LG where do you even start. You need an airplane to even get through the Gaaljecel land and to the Hiraab land.

It’s like me saying I’ll take Galkayo if I move Galmudug Presidential complex. This is crazy delusional stuff when the SNA in Shabellaha Hoose is the most armed in the country 😂

I think you've misunderstood me. I wasn't talking about Mirifle/RX dominating Shabeelada hoose. That's unrealistic for the foreseeable future, which is why highlighted that Hawiye now have the gobol in checks, through SNA and heavily armed civilians/militias. It will not change anytime soon.

I was only referring to demographic change, through Mirifle moving there over time in larger number and using their number to their political advantage. As @abzmuumin1 said, some of those residing in Banaadir relocating to S/D alone would be a huge change in itself. Again, even a large migration to the gobol is not doable as of now. But, if you view it from a long-term outlook, I don't doubt that their size will increase substantially. Other aspects may play into it, such as Hawiye themselves moving to S/D from Banaadir, HS, GM etc. Even with this in mind, my point still stands.
 
We are never going back to Dhusamareb when our SNA is making all this money 😂

The whole Barawe Xamar route is soon to be expanded to Jilib -Kismayo it’ll be even more lucrative. And the baydhabo -Xamar is a massive money maker. You’re dreaming if we’re giving up those millions, in the meantime these militias will be called SNA and given access to all these new weapons were going to have access to post arms embargo 😂
The SNA In lower shabeele will soon be taken from there back to Galmudug. New SNA formed of Digil and Mirifle will be created.
 

bidenkulaha

GalYare
The SNA In lower shabeele will soon be taken from there back to Galmudug. New SNA formed of Digil and Mirifle will be created.
You aren’t keeping up with the news, we removed the last D&M division in shabellaha hoose and sent them to Galmudug. Janaale and April 12th, October divisions were handed to Hiraab officers. What’s funnier is Farmaajo at least tried to change things but it’s been all reversed and HSM/mahad have tightened the SNA grip taking over the gorgor divisions.

even ur guys who are paranoid of hawiye acknowledge this. I have to hand it to him he does know all the changes SNA have made in KG and Gedo 😂

 
You aren’t keeping up with the news, we removed the last D&M division in shabellaha hoose and sent them to Galmudug. Janaale and April 12th, October divisions were handed to Hiraab officers. What’s funnier is Farmaajo at least tried to change things but it’s been all reversed and HSM/mahad have tightened the SNA grip taking over the gorgor divisions.

even ur guys who are paranoid of hawiye acknowledge this. I have to hand it to him he does know all the changes SNA have made in KG and Gedo 😂

There will be consequences😡😡😡
 

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