Sudan Conflict Updates: Army vs RSF

[bidenkulaha]

 

[bidenkulaha]

Lol

 

[bidenkulaha]

https://jakony.biz/sudan-tv-resumes-broadcast-as-army-regains-control/

 

[FarmingNomad]

@Nilotic the gold miner and UAE media are supporting RSF

 

[Aurelian]

Unless al-Burhan and the army manages to exert power in all of Sudan and suppress RSF very soon, a civil war is likely brewing (as we speak).

This can only be prevented through a mediation between SAF and RSF, even though neither are inclined towards such a measure.

People need to keep in mind that RSF is a de-facto 'clan militia'. Even if the army does 'win' (highly unlikely with a decisive ending), the Darfur region can be expected erupt into a major (civil) war again, since Hamdeti has the backing of his clan/tribe and part of his home region being under RSF control.
My two cent of what most likely may happen

After driving rsf out of Khartuum, Sudan and South Sudan should wage wars on Hamediti clan

 

[Nilotic]

After driving rsf out of Khartuum, Sudan and South Sudan should wage wars on Hamediti clan

No, the South should not get involved; we have an almost inexhaustible list of our own problems to deal with.

I really don't want our kin (the Nilotes of Blue Nile State) and our brothers in arms (the Nuba) to get involved...

..The non-Arab tribes of Darfur should let the Riverine Arabs and the Baggara Arabs duke it out.

 

[GaradShabeel]

After driving rsf out of Khartuum, Sudan and South Sudan should wage wars on Hamediti clan

It's not as simple as you make it appear to be. Both Sudans have been engaged in endless wars, for decades upon decades.

The brutal Darfur war lasted 17 years, and resulted in the deaths of several 100s of thousands and millions affected. The war occurred between the govt/army and Janjaweed/RSF, against the rebel groups 'Justice and Equality movement' & 'Sudan Liberation Movement'.

The 'fighting capacity' of those two rebel groups doesn't come close to the type of war Janjaweed/RSF can rage. RSF are much more armed with advanced weapons and arsenals, supplied by the army. Imagine the gov't starting an all out war against them, and this time alone? The calculations doesn't add up.

South Sudan also have its own share of problems. A separate civil war that ended recently and caused 100s of thousands of deaths. To add to this, South Sudan sacrificed a lot in Sudan in its quest for independence (1+ million direct/indirect deaths), so it would not make sense to 'help' its former country.

 

[Aurelian]

It's not as simple as you make it appear to be. Both Sudans have been engaged in endless wars, for decades upon decades.

The brutal Darfur war that lasted 17 years, and resulted in a genocide and the deaths of several 100s of thousands of people and millions affected. The war occured between the govt/army and Janjaweed/RSF, against the rebel groups 'Justice and Equality movement' & 'Sudan Liberation Movement'.

The 'fighting capacity' of those two rebel groups doesn't come close to the type of war Janjaweed/RSF can rage. RSF are much more armed with advanced weapons and arsenals, supplied by the army. Imagine the gov't starting an all out war against them, and this time alone? The calculations doesn't add up.

South Sudan also have its own share of problems. A separate civil war that ended recently and caused 100s of thousands of deaths. To add to this, South Sudan sacrificed a lot in Sudan in its quest for independence (1+ million direct/indirect deaths), so it would not make sense to 'help' its former country.

RSF is bagging intel to help them against "islamists" Burhan regime. They are losing, and will lose. I think the RSF will lose power and be diminished but no to the extend of complete whip out. The state and Other neighboring countries should take the chance of killing this militia

 

[GaradShabeel]

RSF is bagging intel to help them against "islamists" Burhan regime. They are losing, and will lose. I think the RSF will lose power and be diminished but no to the extend of complete whip out. The state and Other neighboring countries should take the chance of killing this militia

Yeah, it seems like the army will get the upper hand. But to what extent?

It will be harder for neighboring countries to fight against RSF/Janjaweed, since Hamedti and his tribe comes from Darfur and a large number of his clansmen live in Chad and other countries as well. He's been accused many times of recruiting fighters from his tribe in neighboring countries.

RSF is a powerful entity. The US and its allies like the UAE may facilitate an opportunity for them to a compromise with the army. But don't expect a full war on them by the army in all parts of the country. At least for now.

 

[Aurelian]

Yeah, it seems like the army will get the upper hand. But to what extent?

It will be harder for neighboring countries to fight against RSF/Janjaweed, since Hamedti and his tribe comes from Darfur and in large numbers live in Chad as well. He's been accused many times of recruiting fighters from his tribe in neighboring countries. The tribes are mostly nomadic herders and move back and forth. There are no 'clear' borders between them either.

Hamedti is also one of the richest person in the country, and controls large large companies in many sectors in the country through his company al-Junaid (and other hidden ones). For example, he dominated the gold mining sector and even engages in illegal tradings.

RSF is a powerful entity. The US and its allies like the UAE can facilitate in coming into a compromise with the army. But don't expect a full war on them. At least for now.

You are making him look bigger. I think he will lose a lot in coming weeks. Mark my words

 

[GaradShabeel]

You are making him look bigger. I think he will lose a lot in coming weeks. Mark my words

He will be severely weakened, and I'm not overestimating him or RSF, but instead his capability of possibly turning into a larger civil war among his local loyalists. I could be wrong, but that's the assessment I can make from what I know of the situation.

In any case, I hope the fightings ends soon.

 

[Asaana]

No, the South should not get involved; we have an almost inexhaustible list of our own problems to deal with.

I really don't want our kin (the Nilotes of Blue Nile State) and our brothers in arms (the Nuba) to get involved...

..The non-Arab tribes of Darfur should let the Riverine Arabs and the Baggara Arabs duke it out.

Non-Arab Darfurians are already involved, and they hate the Baggara far more than the Riverine do (which don't even hate Baggara but look down on them).

Not to mention it's non-Arabs/non-Cushites being used as cannon fodder.

 

[Nilotic]

Non-Arab Darfurians are already involved, and they hate the Baggara far more than the Riverine do (which don't even hate Baggara but look down on them).

Not to mention it's non-Arabs/non-Cushites being used as cannon fodder.

And that's precisely why the Darfurians are powerless, mocked and undermined -- even after they served Khartoum in fighting the South for decades.

The fact that they can't see that all Arab groups are a threat to them and their lands boggles the mind

 

[repo]

Port Sudan, Merowe, Soba and Jebel Aulia are now under the military.

I wish I could save you and take you to America. Please stay indoors and under a strong table.

 

[Asaana]

I wish I could save you and take you to America. Please stay indoors and under a strong table.

Thank you but I'm not in Sudan now. Alhamdulillah my family is fine though.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Good news! Army seems to be bringing the old heads and fighting tactically.


Hope we can see an initial victory for the Sudanese army and negotiations that see RSF surrender

 

[Burqad]

Yeah, it seems like the army will get the upper hand. But to what extent?

It will be harder for neighboring countries to fight against RSF/Janjaweed, since Hamedti and his tribe comes from Darfur and a large number of his clansmen live in Chad and other countries as well. He's been accused many times of recruiting fighters from his tribe in neighboring countries.

RSF is a powerful entity. The US and its allies like the UAE may facilitate an opportunity for them to a compromise with the army. But don't expect a full war on them by the army in all parts of the country. At least for now.

why would a rich man risk it all

 

[GaradShabeel]

why would a rich man risk it all

That's a valid question. His outplay of the last days, with his strongly worded statements and his forces' engagement against the army provides a hint about the direction he wants to take. He seems determined that al-Burhan and the Sudanese army needs to capitulate. (Though, he's overestimating his own capability)

 

[The alchemist]

View attachment 267249

Naguib Sawiris is a funny guy. The quintesential modern billionaire.

 

[The alchemist]

Thank you but I'm not in Sudan now. Alhamdulillah my family is fine though.

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