Somali's GDP per Capita is false

[Barkhadle1520]

@Idilinaa
The 4 million figure would actually make more sense to you if you search the number of adults in Somalia compared to kids.

Approximately 53% of Somalia's population is under 18 years old, according to UNICEF. This translates to about 9 million people. The World Population Dashboard indicates that 47% of the population is aged 0-14, while 51% are aged 15-64, with 3% aged 65 and older.

So, if 9 million people are underage or kids, how many of the remaining 9 million people work at all?! That's why I calculated that 4 million would be the working population of the country. Please do some research on this point.

The age numbers does not sound realistic at all

 

[Karim]

The age numbers does not sound realistic at all

Where you raised in Somalia?! Or have you stayed over there for a good period of time?!

The reason I'm asking this question is, I was raised over there till I was 17 years old, and still visit the country once every two or three years. If you a visit a normal family in Somalia chances are most of the people living at home are kids, so I don't even doubt the 53% figure for a second because I lived there and have immense experience of the demographics.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Where you raised in Somalia?! Or have you stayed over there for a good period of time?!

The reason I'm asking this question is, I was raised over there till I was 17 years old, and still visit the country once every two or three years. If you a visit a normal family in Somalia chances are most of the people living at home are kids, so I don't even doubt the 53% figure for a second because I lived there and have immense experience of the demographics.

Stayed. Where exactly are you from ?

 

[Idilinaa]

@Idilinaa let's break down and simplify your argument.


I'm not sure an example of a middle class family in Hargeisa can be taken into consideration as we're talking about the entire country, where millions live under the tyrant rule of AS and millions are IDPs barely surviving on aid programs provided by UN agencies and other NGOs.

We’re talking about the average income per capita , that’s a national baseline, not the extremes. Some people will exceed it, others will fall below it. You don’t measure it by the millionaire class or, conversely, by those who have lost everything, like IDPs.


Even many of those now displaced by natural disasters were once living stable lives, earning through trade, farming, or local business in towns like Jowhar, Baidoa, and Beledweyne and other villages. You can read their own accounts of how life was before displacement. IDP's are not a reflection of any systemic problem to the economy.

Not to mention the millions who live a nomadic lifestyle.

People who raise livestock in Somalia aren’t exactly nomadic. Most live in settled rural areas where they graze animals within a familiar range. Many actually combine livestock rearing with crop farming, especially to grow feed or maintain food security for the household.

And importantly, they earn income. Whether it’s through selling milk, meat, or livestock itself, pastoral communities are economically active. Plus, it’s common for family members to be spread across different livelihoods.

That’s why I already counted them when referring to agricultural earners, they’re producers, not dependents.

To give this more weight:, milk production alone was valued at $6.58 billion in 2013 (and likely higher now with new processing facilities), while livestock exports are worth about $3 billion and meat exports around $266 million. ( Alot of these numbers are also underestimations since it happens in the informal and through mobile money)

https://icpald.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Policy-Brief-on-The-Contribution-of-Livestock-to-Somalia-Economy-Jan-2016.pdf

Where exactly did you come upa with that 6k per year per person value if I may ask?!
You calculated 466-516 dollars of expenses per "family" in "Hargeisa" or 500 dollars if we take the middle point. That's 500 dollars per family not per person, the 6k would be the purchasing power of the family not per individual. And that's also in Hargeisa, which is a stable city with a working economy compared to huge swaths of the country.

But here is the key point. The $500 figure excludes rent, which is often paid separately or subsidized in many households, especially in rural areas. Many families have multiple income earners contributing, not just one person.

The $500 is for basic necessities, not total consumption, which includes secondary spending on education, health, transport, savings, remittances, and so on.

Hargeisa is more stable, but the cost of living is also higher there compared to many rural areas.

So basically, So the $5,000-6k per person figure refers to purchasing power parity (PPP) adjusted GDP per capita, which includes all goods and services consumed or produced per person in a year, not just basic family expenses. It’s a broader economic measure, not just a sum of household bills.

I'm actually generous with that 4 million figure and you'd be fully pleased if you were raised in Somalia. Most people don't actually work at all, every family has one or two individuals max that hustle and make money, the rest are mouths to feed waiting for someone. Not to mention my calculation was 450 per working person of those 4Million, which is fairly decent in my own honest assessment. For example; a mid tier employee that works for Golis or Hormuud telecommunication companies makes about 200-350 dollars per month, I know this because 5 of my cousins work for Golis, and they have bachelors degree from local university as well, imagine what would a person with no degrees can make in the market, they barely make 200 dollars per month.

Actually, the assumption that only 4 million people are working while the rest are entirely dependent doesn't align with the available data or economic activity on the ground

According to Somalia’s official labor force statistics from 2023, about 60% of people aged 15 and over are employed, while around 20/21% are classified as unemployed. That means the majority of working-age Somalis are economically active in some form , across formal employment, informal markets, agriculture, pastoralism, or services. So the idea that most people are just “mouths to feed” doesn’t hold up.

Most Somalis are employed , even in rural areas do they have employment like i have actually told you.

And it's important to remember ,employment in Somalia doesn't just mean office jobs. Livestock traders, fishermen, street vendors, agro-pastoralists, transport workers, builders, remittance agents, market traders, and mobile money operators all count. Most rural households combine multiple income sources , herding, farming, and side businesses , often seasonally. Even youth and women play a huge role in household income generation.


Also, your example about telecom salaries seems anecdotal and on the lower end. According to Somali government estimates, average salaries at major employers like Hormuud or Dahabshiil are significantly higher , reportedly around $1,500 per month

Your $450 estimate per working person might be modest for low-income earners, but it doesn’t reflect the diversity of income levels. And relying on a flat $200 figure for “those without degrees” is misleading, since many informal workers acrosss different roles and sectors , often earn far more than degree-holders in formal roles and those with degrees depending on their job roles also earn varied incomes.

So if anything, Somalia's real economy is much more active and nuanced than the narrow view of one breadwinner supporting a passive household. That’s exactly why remittances, consumption patterns, business growth, and purchasing power , like we see in cities and rural trade hubs alike , are all far higher than just $450 x 4 million would suggest

I actually added the remittances in my calculations as well, 150 dollars per person of the working 4 million, which equates to 600 million dollars per month, and 7.2 billion dollars per year. Not 2 billion, Somali remittance sent by diaspora (including diasporas in other African countries, Asia, Europe, Australia and North America) is higher than what's estimated and I'm 100% sure of that.

You're throwing around numbers like $150 per person in remittances and $7.2 billion per year without any credible source to back it up. That’s not how serious economic analysis works. You can’t just multiply a made-up figure by another guess and treat it like fact.

That's another generalisation, the standard of living is drastically lower in South Central Somalia, the average family cannot afford those expensive pastas or milk cans. Instead they use their livestock for their milk and grow rice and wheat from their land, their economic output is significantly lower and their income is depleted by constant invasions, terrorism and mass displacements.

If we're making estimations and honest analysis we shouldn't be solely focusing on the upper end of the society.

The point isn’t just about Hargeisa or one city , the broader Somali economy is interconnected, and consumer prices reflect real purchasing behavior, not isolated exceptions.

The lady in the video listing her expenses that @Barkhadle1520 shared shows that basic staples like rice cost $7–8 per bag and powdered milk is $18.

And this isn’t limited to the north , grocery stores in South-Central Somalia, including major cities like Mogadishu, list similar prices online.

These stores, markets, and suppliers wouldn’t survive , let alone grow , if there wasn’t sufficient demand. You can’t have shelves stocked with high-cost goods, multiple branches, and daily turnover unless people have enough disposable income to afford them.

Also, while insecurity and displacement affect some areas more than others, they don’t erase the reality that people are still earning, buying, and consuming across regions. Even families in difficult regions have income sources , from livestock/agriculture, remittances, trade/businesses, or extended family. The idea that only an ‘elite few’ support all this activity doesn’t match the scale of what we’re seeing on the ground.

So if prices are consistent and shops are operating across Somalia, that tells you purchasing power is real , and more widespread than assumed.

 

[Idilinaa]

If we take your figure of 5k GDP per capita in Somalia, shouldn't the gross domestic product of the country be 90 billion or more?! Do you actually think Somalia has a 90 billion GDP?! Higher than 43 out of 54 African Nations?! That figure would put Somalia in the top 10. ... That's insane tbh.

Please let's not get carried away with enthusiasm and patriotic exaggeration if we're being fairly logical and analytical.

What sounds ‘insane’ is only insane if you're going off outdated assumptions and ignoring the massive shifts on the ground.

If you look through my post history , i detail how much production and progress Somalis have made in every sector. It really makes a lot of sense to me.

Heck even the fishing sector grew by 400% between 2017-2022 , with export increases and the average fisherman earns like 300 a week which is roughly translates to 1200 dollars a month.

The same applies across agriculture, construction, real estate, manufacturing, fintech, banking, logistics, telecoms of which have expanded dramatically over the last decade.

These aren’t just numbers , they’re visible in the form of new ports, new airlines, industrial plants, solar farms, processing facilities, thriving retail chains, online shopping platforms, and digital money apps used by millions.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

What sounds ‘insane’ is only insane if you're going off outdated assumptions and ignoring the massive shifts on the ground.

If you look through my post history , i detail how much production and progress Somalis have made in every sector. It really makes a lot of sense to me.

Heck even the fishing sector grew by 400% between 2017-2022 , with export increases and the average fisherman earns like 300 a week which is roughly translates to 1200 dollars a month.

The same applies across agriculture, construction, real estate, manufacturing, fintech, banking, logistics, telecoms of which have expanded dramatically over the last decade.

These aren’t just numbers , they’re visible in the form of new ports, new airlines, industrial plants, solar farms, processing facilities, thriving retail chains, online shopping platforms, and digital money apps used by millions.

The 6B$ dairy figure was a good surprise, you should really showcase the growth of every sector like Fishery, dairy, industries (cement for example) in a single thread cause nearly no one knows about it

 

[Karim]

We’re talking about the average income per capita , that’s a national baseline, not the extremes. Some people will exceed it, others will fall below it. You don’t measure it by the millionaire class or, conversely, by those who have lost everything, like IDPs.


Even many of those now displaced by natural disasters were once living stable lives, earning through trade, farming, or local business in towns like Jowhar, Baidoa, and Beledweyne and other villages. You can read their own accounts of how life was before displacement. IDP's are not a reflection of any systemic problem to the economy.



People who raise livestock in Somalia aren’t exactly nomadic. Most live in settled rural areas where they graze animals within a familiar range. Many actually combine livestock rearing with crop farming, especially to grow feed or maintain food security for the household.

And importantly, they earn income. Whether it’s through selling milk, meat, or livestock itself, pastoral communities are economically active. Plus, it’s common for family members to be spread across different livelihoods.

That’s why I already counted them when referring to agricultural earners, they’re producers, not dependents.

To give this more weight:, milk production alone was valued at $6.58 billion in 2013 (and likely higher now with new processing facilities), while livestock exports are worth about $3 billion and meat exports around $266 million. ( Alot of these numbers are also underestimations since it happens in the informal and through mobile money)

https://icpald.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Policy-Brief-on-The-Contribution-of-Livestock-to-Somalia-Economy-Jan-2016.pdf

But here is the key point. The $500 figure excludes rent, which is often paid separately or subsidized in many households, especially in rural areas. Many families have multiple income earners contributing, not just one person.

The $500 is for basic necessities, not total consumption, which includes secondary spending on education, health, transport, savings, remittances, and so on.

Hargeisa is more stable, but the cost of living is also higher there compared to many rural areas.

So basically, So the $5,000-6k per person figure refers to purchasing power parity (PPP) adjusted GDP per capita, which includes all goods and services consumed or produced per person in a year, not just basic family expenses. It’s a broader economic measure, not just a sum of household bills.




Actually, the assumption that only 4 million people are working while the rest are entirely dependent doesn't align with the available data or economic activity on the ground

According to Somalia’s official labor force statistics from 2023, about 60% of people aged 15 and over are employed, while around 20/21% are classified as unemployed. That means the majority of working-age Somalis are economically active in some form , across formal employment, informal markets, agriculture, pastoralism, or services. So the idea that most people are just “mouths to feed” doesn’t hold up.
View attachment 363307

Most Somalis are employed , even in rural areas do they have employment like i have actually told you.

And it's important to remember ,employment in Somalia doesn't just mean office jobs. Livestock traders, fishermen, street vendors, agro-pastoralists, transport workers, builders, remittance agents, market traders, and mobile money operators all count. Most rural households combine multiple income sources , herding, farming, and side businesses , often seasonally. Even youth and women play a huge role in household income generation.


Also, your example about telecom salaries seems anecdotal and on the lower end. According to Somali government estimates, average salaries at major employers like Hormuud or Dahabshiil are significantly higher , reportedly around $1,500 per month
View attachment 363305

Your $450 estimate per working person might be modest for low-income earners, but it doesn’t reflect the diversity of income levels. And relying on a flat $200 figure for “those without degrees” is misleading, since many informal workers acrosss different roles and sectors , often earn far more than degree-holders in formal roles and those with degrees depending on their job roles also earn varied incomes.

So if anything, Somalia's real economy is much more active and nuanced than the narrow view of one breadwinner supporting a passive household. That’s exactly why remittances, consumption patterns, business growth, and purchasing power , like we see in cities and rural trade hubs alike , are all far higher than just $450 x 4 million would suggest



You're throwing around numbers like $150 per person in remittances and $7.2 billion per year without any credible source to back it up. That’s not how serious economic analysis works. You can’t just multiply a made-up figure by another guess and treat it like fact.




The point isn’t just about Hargeisa or one city , the broader Somali economy is interconnected, and consumer prices reflect real purchasing behavior, not isolated exceptions.

The lady in the video listing her expenses that @Barkhadle1520 shared shows that basic staples like rice cost $7–8 per bag and powdered milk is $18.

And this isn’t limited to the north , grocery stores in South-Central Somalia, including major cities like Mogadishu, list similar prices online.
View attachment 363308

View attachment 363309

These stores, markets, and suppliers wouldn’t survive , let alone grow , if there wasn’t sufficient demand. You can’t have shelves stocked with high-cost goods, multiple branches, and daily turnover unless people have enough disposable income to afford them.

Also, while insecurity and displacement affect some areas more than others, they don’t erase the reality that people are still earning, buying, and consuming across regions. Even families in difficult regions have income sources , from livestock/agriculture, remittances, trade/businesses, or extended family. The idea that only an ‘elite few’ support all this activity doesn’t match the scale of what we’re seeing on the ground.

So if prices are consistent and shops are operating across Somalia, that tells you purchasing power is real , and more widespread than assumed.

Why can't you be consistent?!
The entire thread is about how false the reported GDP of Somalia is, that literally means disagreeing with most of economic stats from the government, labeling them as unreliable. I agree with that assesment, but you keep going back to gov figures and stats to prove a point which makes your entire argument a walking contradiction.

Either you stick with govt figures and reports that say the GDP is 10.5 billion, remittances are 2.1 Billion etc or let's throw them out and make our own analysis based on logical reasoning and experience of the country.

You can't be cherry picking on which figures suit your argument and which dont.

The notion that Somalia's GDP is close to 90 billion making Somalia the 10th richest country in Africa is just a fantasy with all due respect, it makes no sense and its not even probable.

There's also a 2023 report from Somali gov that you quoted that said 60% of people aged 15 and above are unemployed, I disagree with that report because I'd say the actual unemployment rate of that group is slightly higher than that, but still it's close to my own figure. The population of Somalia in 2023 was roughly 17 million. 47% of the population is between Age 0-14, which means, 9 million is the remaining population that's above 15, it would mean 5.4 Million people work in Somalia, slightly higher than the 4 million I posted earlier. That's if we take that report at face value which I don't.

In conclusion, We both agree that the reported GDP of Somalia is false, according to my own assessments I'd say it's close to 21 Billion, while your estimation is close to 90 Billion, which is an over exaggeration if I being honest.

 

[Sigmundd]

Why can't you be consistent?!
The entire thread is about how false the reported GDP of Somalia is, that literally means disagreeing with most of economic stats from the government, labeling them as unreliable. I agree with that assesment, but you keep going back to gov figures and stats to prove a point which makes your entire argument a walking contradiction.

Either you stick with govt figures and reports that say the GDP is 10.5 billion, remittances are 2.1 Billion etc or let's throw them out and make our own analysis based on logical reasoning and experience of the country.

You can't be cherry picking on which figures suit your argument and which dont.

The notion that Somalia's GDP is close to 90 billion making Somalia the 10th richest country in Africa is just a fantasy with all due respect, it makes no sense and its not even probable.

There's also a 2023 report from Somali gov that you quoted that said 60% of people aged 15 and above are unemployed, I disagree with that report because I'd say the actual unemployment rate of that group is slightly higher than that, but still it's close to my own figure. The population of Somalia in 2023 was roughly 17 million. 47% of the population is between Age 0-14, which means, 9 million is the remaining population that's above 15, it would mean 5.4 Million people work in Somalia, slightly higher than the 4 million I posted earlier. That's if we take that report at face value which I don't.

In conclusion, We both agree that the reported GDP of Somalia is false, according to my own assessments I'd say it's close to 21 Billion, while your estimation is close to 90 Billion, which is an over exaggeration if I being honest.

That would place us around Sudan and more than Bosnia. I hate how the government are watering down the real GDP.

 

[Idilinaa]

Why can't you be consistent?!
The entire thread is about how false the reported GDP of Somalia is, that literally means disagreeing with most of economic stats from the government, labeling them as unreliable. I agree with that assesment, but you keep going back to gov figures and stats to prove a point which makes your entire argument a walking contradiction.

Either you stick with govt figures and reports that say the GDP is 10.5 billion, remittances are 2.1 Billion etc or let's throw them out and make our own analysis based on logical reasoning and experience of the country.

You can't be cherry picking on which figures suit your argument and which dont.

The notion that Somalia's GDP is close to 90 billion making Somalia the 10th richest country in Africa is just a fantasy with all due respect, it makes no sense and its not even probable.

There's also a 2023 report from Somali gov that you quoted that said 60% of people aged 15 and above are unemployed, I disagree with that report because I'd say the actual unemployment rate of that group is slightly higher than that, but still it's close to my own figure. The population of Somalia in 2023 was roughly 17 million. 47% of the population is between Age 0-14, which means, 9 million is the remaining population that's above 15, it would mean 5.4 Million people work in Somalia, slightly higher than the 4 million I posted earlier. That's if we take that report at face value which I don't.

In conclusion, We both agree that the reported GDP of Somalia is false, according to my own assessments I'd say it's close to 21 Billion, while your estimation is close to 90 Billion, which is an over exaggeration if I being honest.

You're misrepresenting both my position and the nature of the data that we provide.

I’ve been very consistent: I acknowledge the official figures are limited, and I repeatedly state that Somalia's reported GDP is an undercount due to exclusion of informal economic activity, mobile money, internal trade, and output which the Somali National Bureau of Statistics (SNBS) themselves openly admit. That’s not cherry-picking , it’s called data literacy.

Read '' The availability of data for informal enterprises is far lower than for the formal sector, so the information that could be collected by SNBS would be much more limited''

That’s why rebasing (like Nigeria did in 2014) would drastically raise Somalia’s GDP figures.

How to boost GDP stats by 60%

In 2010, Ghana announced a 60% increase in GDP estimates and Nigeria may soon follow suit. How do such miraculous rises come about?

www.bbc.com

You can’t claim to agree that the GDP is falsely low and then deny all upward revisions as exaggeration. . If we both agree the base GDP is incomplete, then a $21B figure is your own upward speculation , which is fine , but don’t attack mine as “fantasy” just because it’s more comprehensive.

The main difference is, I back my adjustments with sector-by-sector growth, exports, transactions and money flows, fintech data, and household-level consumption. You, on the other hand, rely on anecdotes and personal experiences.

As for remittances , the ''$2 billion figure'' doesn’t come from the Somali government. It’s aggregated from major Hawala companies (like Dahabshiil, Amal, etc.), World Bank estimates, and payment corridors , and many experts believe that even that’s underreported due to non-banked transfers.

And lastly, children aged 0–14 are globally considered economically inactive, so your attempt to inflate the unemployed percentage by including them is flawed.

 

[Idilinaa]

The 6B$ dairy figure was a good surprise, you should really showcase the growth of every sector like Fishery, dairy, industries (cement for example) in a single thread cause nearly no one knows about it

The livestock sector report estimated a higher number than the previous 3.3 billion. It shows the direct financial benefit that livestock owners derive from it, so rural pastoral and agro-pastoral households are actively earning income This doesn't even include their earnings from Meat sales, Live animal sales and exports, Hides, skins sold to tanneries, Informal financial services like using livestock as collateral or savings which it says 6.4% is tied to this.

The dairy figure is not export figure either , it' reflect domestic revenue. So they are selling milk locally and it generates billions.

I also made post in this thread about the many dairy processing factories and plants they opened up and examples of the products they sell in local stores.

Exporting dairy from Somalia

Somalia dairy industry is worth $ 3 billion I mainly have difficulty with getting around Having products tested and approved by laboratories or veterinary inspectors. If anyone knows any dairy exporters in Somalia please share I want to know how they get around these

www.somalispot.com

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Why can't you be consistent?!
The entire thread is about how false the reported GDP of Somalia is, that literally means disagreeing with most of economic stats from the government, labeling them as unreliable. I agree with that assesment, but you keep going back to gov figures and stats to prove a point which makes your entire argument a walking contradiction.

Either you stick with govt figures and reports that say the GDP is 10.5 billion, remittances are 2.1 Billion etc or let's throw them out and make our own analysis based on logical reasoning and experience of the country.

You can't be cherry picking on which figures suit your argument and which dont.

The notion that Somalia's GDP is close to 90 billion making Somalia the 10th richest country in Africa is just a fantasy with all due respect, it makes no sense and its not even probable.

There's also a 2023 report from Somali gov that you quoted that said 60% of people aged 15 and above are unemployed, I disagree with that report because I'd say the actual unemployment rate of that group is slightly higher than that, but still it's close to my own figure. The population of Somalia in 2023 was roughly 17 million. 47% of the population is between Age 0-14, which means, 9 million is the remaining population that's above 15, it would mean 5.4 Million people work in Somalia, slightly higher than the 4 million I posted earlier. That's if we take that report at face value which I don't.

In conclusion, We both agree that the reported GDP of Somalia is false, according to my own assessments I'd say it's close to 21 Billion, while your estimation is close to 90 Billion, which is an over exaggeration if I being honest.

"Either you stick with govt figures and reports that say the GDP is 10.5 billion, remittances are 2.1 Billion etc or let's throw them out and make our own analysis based on logical reasoning and experience of the country."

This is just a dumb logic, everything that comes out of the SNBS isn't false. Just because one apple is rotten doesn't mean you should give up on the whole tree.

 

[Karim]

And lastly, children aged 0–14 are globally considered economically inactive, so your attempt to inflate the unemployed percentage by including them is flawed.

You're misrepresenting both my position and the nature of the data that we provide.

Hahaha this is hilarious!! When did include children between 0-14 in my unemployment figures?!

This is a quote from my latest comment;

The population of Somalia in 2023 was roughly 17 million. 47% of the population is between Age 0-14, which means, 9 million is the remaining population that's above 15, it would mean 5.4 Million people work in Somalia, slightly higher than the 4 million I posted earlier.

Where exactly did I include children in my unemployment figures?! I used the report you provided yourself to analyse the working population and it slightly higher than the 4 million that I assessed myself.

So who's misrepresenting who?!
All I told you was either stick with gov reports and figures or make your own assessments based on other available facts and personal experiences.

Please be consistent again.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

That would place us around Sudan and more than Bosnia. I hate how the government are watering down the real GDP.

Speaking of Sudan how was their GDP 30B$ in 2020 before the war and in just 5 years and during a civil war they reached 100B$. They might be faking their stats like Ethiopia.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

The livestock sector report estimated a higher number than the previous 3.3 billion. It shows the direct financial benefit that livestock owners derive from it, so rural pastoral and agro-pastoral households are actively earning income This doesn't even include their earnings from Meat sales, Live animal sales and exports, Hides, skins sold to tanneries, Informal financial services like using livestock as collateral or savings which it says 6.4% is tied to this.

The dairy figure is not export figure either , it' reflect domestic revenue. So they are selling milk locally and it generates billions.

I also made post in this thread about the many dairy processing factories and plants they opened up and examples of the products they sell in local stores.

Exporting dairy from Somalia

Somalia dairy industry is worth $ 3 billion I mainly have difficulty with getting around Having products tested and approved by laboratories or veterinary inspectors. If anyone knows any dairy exporters in Somalia please share I want to know how they get around these

www.somalispot.com

Are there any other industries (other than fishery, cement & dairy) that are rapidly evolving ? What about agriculture ? Any precise number ?

 

[sh-89]

Im convinced us diaspora got short end of the stick in the long run. I think when its bad, its like hell but when its good, its beautiful and perfect. Better than being abroad.

 

[Medeea]

There’s a massive amount of cope going on here.

Yes, Somalia has a large informal cash-only sector that isn’t reflected in formal GDP/ GDP per capita. But even if u add it, it will increase the GDP per captia to $1k. And will add $1k to PPP at most.

And when was the last time you even went back home? I don’t need Chatgtp I was just there. Salaries in Xamar are actually decent (by African standards) office jobs start around $400–$500, bajaaj drivers make about the same after expenses, and waitresses earn more than doctors in Addis Ababa. Construction workers pull in around $250/month. I even met a Kenyan guy flexing about making $5K as a private English tutor.

So yeah, there’s definitely a growing middle class in Xamar. But Somalia =\= Xamar.


Hack, you don’t even need to leave xamar to see eye watering levels of poverty. Outside Xamar? It’s a whole different story. Unbelievable levels of poverty

Let’s hope oil starts pumping soon. The oil boom may be over globally, but even a few billion injected into the economy yearly would make a huge difference.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

There’s a massive amount of cope going on here.

Yes, Somalia has a large informal cash-only sector that isn’t reflected in formal GDP/ GDP per capita. But even if u add it, it will increase the GDP per captia to $1k. And will add $1k to PPP at most.

And when was the last time you even went back home? I don’t need Chatgtp I was just there. Salaries in Xamar are actually decent (by African standards) office jobs start around $400–$500, bajaaj drivers make about the same after expenses, and waitresses earn more than doctors in Addis Ababa. Construction workers pull in around $250/month. I even met a Kenyan guy flexing about making $5K as a private English tutor.

So yeah, there’s definitely a growing middle class in Xamar. But Somalia =\= Xamar.


Hack, you don’t even need to leave xamar to see eye watering levels of poverty. Outside Xamar? It’s a whole different story. Unbelievable levels of poverty

Let’s hope oil starts pumping soon. The oil boom may be over globally, but even a few billion injected into the economy yearly would make a huge difference.

"Large informal cash-only sector" Do you even know what you're talking about lol

Also according to you the average Somali lives on 140$ a month and is as poor as the average Gambian/Liberian. Very stupid claim.

You also claim that there's only a significant Middle-class in Xamar. I don't know if you've seen it but I showcased in the first page of this thread the rise in Middle class housing all over Somalia.

Exact same "Bungalow" style of Middle-class housing all over Borama, Hargeisa, Burco, Garowe, Bosaso and even towns in the South like Bulcad or Beledweyne. Your reasoning is flawed, if we are as poor as Liberians, how can we afford these homes ? Where in Somalia are you from and did you ever go back home ?

 

[Idilinaa]

Hahaha this is hilarious!! When did include children between 0-14 in my unemployment figures?!

This is a quote from my latest comment;

Where exactly did I include children in my unemployment figures?! I used the report you provided yourself to analyse the working population and it slightly higher than the 4 million that I assessed myself.

So who's misrepresenting who?!
All I told you was either stick with gov reports and figures or make your own assessments based on other available facts and personal experiences.

Please be consistent again.

You are counting the number of non-working age population, to frame Somalis in Somalia as if they don't work and everyone is barely surviving on single persons pay check. It's false and very misleading.

Like i have shown you and as @Barkhadle1520 said, it's not that the government information is fake it's just incomplete and it leave's out a big chunk of the economic activity and they even admitted themselves. So they are capturing only a portion of whats going on. Like 10% of it.

Where i have a problem with them is why they are releasing the incomplete data and creating misleading/faulty picture of Somalia in the process and don't do much to fix it. Especially if they boost their GDP numbers to reflect the real activity in the country it will draw in investments and more partnerships but it seems like they are less interested in that contrary to what they claim.

 

[Idilinaa]

There’s a massive amount of cope going on here.

Yes, Somalia has a large informal cash-only sector that isn’t reflected in formal GDP/ GDP per capita. But even if u add it, it will increase the GDP per captia to $1k. And will add $1k to PPP at most.

And when was the last time you even went back home? I don’t need Chatgtp I was just there. Salaries in Xamar are actually decent (by African standards) office jobs start around $400–$500, bajaaj drivers make about the same after expenses, and waitresses earn more than doctors in Addis Ababa. Construction workers pull in around $250/month. I even met a Kenyan guy flexing about making $5K as a private English tutor.

So yeah, there’s definitely a growing middle class in Xamar. But Somalia =\= Xamar.


Hack, you don’t even need to leave xamar to see eye watering levels of poverty. Outside Xamar? It’s a whole different story. Unbelievable levels of poverty

Let’s hope oil starts pumping soon. The oil boom may be over globally, but even a few billion injected into the economy yearly would make a huge difference.

Calling it cope just because it doesn’t align with your assumptions isn’t a serious argument. What I’m doing is pointing out ground realities so we can have an accurate grasp of Somalia’s economic situation , beyond outdated tropes.

When we talk about the informal sector, we're also talking about unregistered businesses and decentralized commerce. For example, Bosaso , Somalia’s third-largest economy after Hargeisa , has over 20,000 businesses and enterprises. Nearly half of those operate informally, but that doesn’t mean they don’t contribute value or income to people on the ground.

You mention Xamar’s middle class, but act like the rest of Somalia is starving, yet those same “poor” regions pay the same market rates for electricity, fuel, water, and food. That alone disproves the idea of a totally collapsed economy outside Mogadishu.

I was just discussing this with @Barkhadle1520 the livestock sector alone generates billions annually , and that revenue doesn’t go to just Mogadishu or Hargeisa. It goes directly to agro-pastoral households and local markets all over the country. Somalia’s economy is decentralized by nature, which spreads opportunity and income across regions. It’s not like Ethiopia where everything is bottlenecked through Addis Ababa.


So yes, poverty exists (mostly concentrated in the displaced) , just like in every developing country. But the full picture shows a dynamic and self-sustaining economic landscape that can’t be reduced to one city or one statistic.

 

[Idilinaa]

"Large informal cash-only sector" Do you even know what you're talking about lol

Also according to you the average Somali lives on 140$ a month and is as poor as the average Gambian/Liberian. Very stupid claim.

You also claim that there's only a significant Middle-class in Xamar. I don't know if you've seen it but I showcased in the first page of this thread the rise in Middle class housing all over Somalia.

Exact same "Bungalow" style of Middle-class housing all over Borama, Hargeisa, Burco, Garowe, Bosaso and even towns in the South like Bulcad or Beledweyne. Your reasoning is flawed, if we are as poor as Liberians, how can we afford these homes ? Where in Somalia are you from and did you ever go back home ?

Exactly. If people didn’t have money, who’s financing the construction of all these homes? Someone has to pay for the building materials, labor, permits, etc. That alone requires a decent amount of capital. And once they’re built, someone else has to either buy or rent them , both of which also require steady income.

Even in the case of rentals, the person renting has to earn enough not only to pay rent but to cover all their other living costs too and for upkeep , utilities etc. That means they’re bringing in a reasonable income. On the flip side, landlords , who already own these properties , had to have had enough money at some point to fund or purchase the property. That tells you that capital is circulating in the economy

So when people claim Somalis live on $100 or so a month on average, it completely contradicts the middle-class housing boom we’re seeing in towns across the country , not just Mogadishu, but also Hargeisa, Garowe, Bosaso, Burco, Beledweyne, and even smaller towns like Bulobarde and Dhusamareeb.

There’s clearly a earning power in many parts of the country , not just one city and the rise in modern homes is just one reflection of that.