Somali's GDP per Capita is false

[Barkhadle1520]

@Idilinaa
The 4 million figure would actually make more sense to you if you search the number of adults in Somalia compared to kids.

Approximately 53% of Somalia's population is under 18 years old, according to UNICEF. This translates to about 9 million people. The World Population Dashboard indicates that 47% of the population is aged 0-14, while 51% are aged 15-64, with 3% aged 65 and older.

So, if 9 million people are underage or kids, how many of the remaining 9 million people work at all?! That's why I calculated that 4 million would be the working population of the country. Please do some research on this point.

The age numbers does not sound realistic at all

 

[Karim]

The age numbers does not sound realistic at all

Where you raised in Somalia?! Or have you stayed over there for a good period of time?!

The reason I'm asking this question is, I was raised over there till I was 17 years old, and still visit the country once every two or three years. If you a visit a normal family in Somalia chances are most of the people living at home are kids, so I don't even doubt the 53% figure for a second because I lived there and have immense experience of the demographics.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Where you raised in Somalia?! Or have you stayed over there for a good period of time?!

The reason I'm asking this question is, I was raised over there till I was 17 years old, and still visit the country once every two or three years. If you a visit a normal family in Somalia chances are most of the people living at home are kids, so I don't even doubt the 53% figure for a second because I lived there and have immense experience of the demographics.

Stayed. Where exactly are you from ?

 

[Idilinaa]

@Idilinaa let's break down and simplify your argument.


I'm not sure an example of a middle class family in Hargeisa can be taken into consideration as we're talking about the entire country, where millions live under the tyrant rule of AS and millions are IDPs barely surviving on aid programs provided by UN agencies and other NGOs.

We’re talking about the average income per capita , that’s a national baseline, not the extremes. Some people will exceed it, others will fall below it. You don’t measure it by the millionaire class or, conversely, by those who have lost everything, like IDPs.


Even many of those now displaced by natural disasters were once living stable lives, earning through trade, farming, or local business in towns like Jowhar, Baidoa, and Beledweyne and other villages. You can read their own accounts of how life was before displacement. IDP's are not a reflection of any systemic problem to the economy.

Not to mention the millions who live a nomadic lifestyle.

People who raise livestock in Somalia aren’t exactly nomadic. Most live in settled rural areas where they graze animals within a familiar range. Many actually combine livestock rearing with crop farming, especially to grow feed or maintain food security for the household.

And importantly, they earn income. Whether it’s through selling milk, meat, or livestock itself, pastoral communities are economically active. Plus, it’s common for family members to be spread across different livelihoods.

That’s why I already counted them when referring to agricultural earners, they’re producers, not dependents.

To give this more weight:, milk production alone was valued at $6.58 billion in 2013 (and likely higher now with new processing facilities), while livestock exports are worth about $3 billion and meat exports around $266 million. ( Alot of these numbers are also underestimations since it happens in the informal and through mobile money)

https://icpald.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Policy-Brief-on-The-Contribution-of-Livestock-to-Somalia-Economy-Jan-2016.pdf

Where exactly did you come upa with that 6k per year per person value if I may ask?!
You calculated 466-516 dollars of expenses per "family" in "Hargeisa" or 500 dollars if we take the middle point. That's 500 dollars per family not per person, the 6k would be the purchasing power of the family not per individual. And that's also in Hargeisa, which is a stable city with a working economy compared to huge swaths of the country.

But here is the key point. The $500 figure excludes rent, which is often paid separately or subsidized in many households, especially in rural areas. Many families have multiple income earners contributing, not just one person.

The $500 is for basic necessities, not total consumption, which includes secondary spending on education, health, transport, savings, remittances, and so on.

Hargeisa is more stable, but the cost of living is also higher there compared to many rural areas.

So basically, So the $5,000-6k per person figure refers to purchasing power parity (PPP) adjusted GDP per capita, which includes all goods and services consumed or produced per person in a year, not just basic family expenses. It’s a broader economic measure, not just a sum of household bills.

I'm actually generous with that 4 million figure and you'd be fully pleased if you were raised in Somalia. Most people don't actually work at all, every family has one or two individuals max that hustle and make money, the rest are mouths to feed waiting for someone. Not to mention my calculation was 450 per working person of those 4Million, which is fairly decent in my own honest assessment. For example; a mid tier employee that works for Golis or Hormuud telecommunication companies makes about 200-350 dollars per month, I know this because 5 of my cousins work for Golis, and they have bachelors degree from local university as well, imagine what would a person with no degrees can make in the market, they barely make 200 dollars per month.

Actually, the assumption that only 4 million people are working while the rest are entirely dependent doesn't align with the available data or economic activity on the ground

According to Somalia’s official labor force statistics from 2023, about 60% of people aged 15 and over are employed, while around 20/21% are classified as unemployed. That means the majority of working-age Somalis are economically active in some form , across formal employment, informal markets, agriculture, pastoralism, or services. So the idea that most people are just “mouths to feed” doesn’t hold up.

Most Somalis are employed , even in rural areas do they have employment like i have actually told you.

And it's important to remember ,employment in Somalia doesn't just mean office jobs. Livestock traders, fishermen, street vendors, agro-pastoralists, transport workers, builders, remittance agents, market traders, and mobile money operators all count. Most rural households combine multiple income sources , herding, farming, and side businesses , often seasonally. Even youth and women play a huge role in household income generation.


Also, your example about telecom salaries seems anecdotal and on the lower end. According to Somali government estimates, average salaries at major employers like Hormuud or Dahabshiil are significantly higher , reportedly around $1,500 per month

Your $450 estimate per working person might be modest for low-income earners, but it doesn’t reflect the diversity of income levels. And relying on a flat $200 figure for “those without degrees” is misleading, since many informal workers acrosss different roles and sectors , often earn far more than degree-holders in formal roles and those with degrees depending on their job roles also earn varied incomes.

So if anything, Somalia's real economy is much more active and nuanced than the narrow view of one breadwinner supporting a passive household. That’s exactly why remittances, consumption patterns, business growth, and purchasing power , like we see in cities and rural trade hubs alike , are all far higher than just $450 x 4 million would suggest

I actually added the remittances in my calculations as well, 150 dollars per person of the working 4 million, which equates to 600 million dollars per month, and 7.2 billion dollars per year. Not 2 billion, Somali remittance sent by diaspora (including diasporas in other African countries, Asia, Europe, Australia and North America) is higher than what's estimated and I'm 100% sure of that.

You're throwing around numbers like $150 per person in remittances and $7.2 billion per year without any credible source to back it up. That’s not how serious economic analysis works. You can’t just multiply a made-up figure by another guess and treat it like fact.

That's another generalisation, the standard of living is drastically lower in South Central Somalia, the average family cannot afford those expensive pastas or milk cans. Instead they use their livestock for their milk and grow rice and wheat from their land, their economic output is significantly lower and their income is depleted by constant invasions, terrorism and mass displacements.

If we're making estimations and honest analysis we shouldn't be solely focusing on the upper end of the society.

The point isn’t just about Hargeisa or one city , the broader Somali economy is interconnected, and consumer prices reflect real purchasing behavior, not isolated exceptions.

The lady in the video listing her expenses that @Barkhadle1520 shared shows that basic staples like rice cost $7–8 per bag and powdered milk is $18.

And this isn’t limited to the north , grocery stores in South-Central Somalia, including major cities like Mogadishu, list similar prices online.

These stores, markets, and suppliers wouldn’t survive , let alone grow , if there wasn’t sufficient demand. You can’t have shelves stocked with high-cost goods, multiple branches, and daily turnover unless people have enough disposable income to afford them.

Also, while insecurity and displacement affect some areas more than others, they don’t erase the reality that people are still earning, buying, and consuming across regions. Even families in difficult regions have income sources , from livestock/agriculture, remittances, trade/businesses, or extended family. The idea that only an ‘elite few’ support all this activity doesn’t match the scale of what we’re seeing on the ground.

So if prices are consistent and shops are operating across Somalia, that tells you purchasing power is real , and more widespread than assumed.

 

[Idilinaa]

If we take your figure of 5k GDP per capita in Somalia, shouldn't the gross domestic product of the country be 90 billion or more?! Do you actually think Somalia has a 90 billion GDP?! Higher than 43 out of 54 African Nations?! That figure would put Somalia in the top 10. ... That's insane tbh.

Please let's not get carried away with enthusiasm and patriotic exaggeration if we're being fairly logical and analytical.

What sounds ‘insane’ is only insane if you're going off outdated assumptions and ignoring the massive shifts on the ground.

If you look through my post history , i detail how much production and progress Somalis have made in every sector. It really makes a lot of sense to me.

Heck even the fishing sector grew by 400% between 2017-2022 , with export increases and the average fisherman earns like 300 a week which is roughly translates to 1200 dollars a month.

The same applies across agriculture, construction, real estate, manufacturing, fintech, banking, logistics, telecoms of which have expanded dramatically over the last decade.

These aren’t just numbers , they’re visible in the form of new ports, new airlines, industrial plants, solar farms, processing facilities, thriving retail chains, online shopping platforms, and digital money apps used by millions.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

What sounds ‘insane’ is only insane if you're going off outdated assumptions and ignoring the massive shifts on the ground.

If you look through my post history , i detail how much production and progress Somalis have made in every sector. It really makes a lot of sense to me.

Heck even the fishing sector grew by 400% between 2017-2022 , with export increases and the average fisherman earns like 300 a week which is roughly translates to 1200 dollars a month.

The same applies across agriculture, construction, real estate, manufacturing, fintech, banking, logistics, telecoms of which have expanded dramatically over the last decade.

These aren’t just numbers , they’re visible in the form of new ports, new airlines, industrial plants, solar farms, processing facilities, thriving retail chains, online shopping platforms, and digital money apps used by millions.

The 6B$ dairy figure was a good surprise, you should really showcase the growth of every sector like Fishery, dairy, industries (cement for example) in a single thread cause nearly no one knows about it

 

[Karim]

We’re talking about the average income per capita , that’s a national baseline, not the extremes. Some people will exceed it, others will fall below it. You don’t measure it by the millionaire class or, conversely, by those who have lost everything, like IDPs.


Even many of those now displaced by natural disasters were once living stable lives, earning through trade, farming, or local business in towns like Jowhar, Baidoa, and Beledweyne and other villages. You can read their own accounts of how life was before displacement. IDP's are not a reflection of any systemic problem to the economy.



People who raise livestock in Somalia aren’t exactly nomadic. Most live in settled rural areas where they graze animals within a familiar range. Many actually combine livestock rearing with crop farming, especially to grow feed or maintain food security for the household.

And importantly, they earn income. Whether it’s through selling milk, meat, or livestock itself, pastoral communities are economically active. Plus, it’s common for family members to be spread across different livelihoods.

That’s why I already counted them when referring to agricultural earners, they’re producers, not dependents.

To give this more weight:, milk production alone was valued at $6.58 billion in 2013 (and likely higher now with new processing facilities), while livestock exports are worth about $3 billion and meat exports around $266 million. ( Alot of these numbers are also underestimations since it happens in the informal and through mobile money)

https://icpald.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Policy-Brief-on-The-Contribution-of-Livestock-to-Somalia-Economy-Jan-2016.pdf

But here is the key point. The $500 figure excludes rent, which is often paid separately or subsidized in many households, especially in rural areas. Many families have multiple income earners contributing, not just one person.

The $500 is for basic necessities, not total consumption, which includes secondary spending on education, health, transport, savings, remittances, and so on.

Hargeisa is more stable, but the cost of living is also higher there compared to many rural areas.

So basically, So the $5,000-6k per person figure refers to purchasing power parity (PPP) adjusted GDP per capita, which includes all goods and services consumed or produced per person in a year, not just basic family expenses. It’s a broader economic measure, not just a sum of household bills.




Actually, the assumption that only 4 million people are working while the rest are entirely dependent doesn't align with the available data or economic activity on the ground

According to Somalia’s official labor force statistics from 2023, about 60% of people aged 15 and over are employed, while around 20/21% are classified as unemployed. That means the majority of working-age Somalis are economically active in some form , across formal employment, informal markets, agriculture, pastoralism, or services. So the idea that most people are just “mouths to feed” doesn’t hold up.
View attachment 363307

Most Somalis are employed , even in rural areas do they have employment like i have actually told you.

And it's important to remember ,employment in Somalia doesn't just mean office jobs. Livestock traders, fishermen, street vendors, agro-pastoralists, transport workers, builders, remittance agents, market traders, and mobile money operators all count. Most rural households combine multiple income sources , herding, farming, and side businesses , often seasonally. Even youth and women play a huge role in household income generation.


Also, your example about telecom salaries seems anecdotal and on the lower end. According to Somali government estimates, average salaries at major employers like Hormuud or Dahabshiil are significantly higher , reportedly around $1,500 per month
View attachment 363305

Your $450 estimate per working person might be modest for low-income earners, but it doesn’t reflect the diversity of income levels. And relying on a flat $200 figure for “those without degrees” is misleading, since many informal workers acrosss different roles and sectors , often earn far more than degree-holders in formal roles and those with degrees depending on their job roles also earn varied incomes.

So if anything, Somalia's real economy is much more active and nuanced than the narrow view of one breadwinner supporting a passive household. That’s exactly why remittances, consumption patterns, business growth, and purchasing power , like we see in cities and rural trade hubs alike , are all far higher than just $450 x 4 million would suggest



You're throwing around numbers like $150 per person in remittances and $7.2 billion per year without any credible source to back it up. That’s not how serious economic analysis works. You can’t just multiply a made-up figure by another guess and treat it like fact.




The point isn’t just about Hargeisa or one city , the broader Somali economy is interconnected, and consumer prices reflect real purchasing behavior, not isolated exceptions.

The lady in the video listing her expenses that @Barkhadle1520 shared shows that basic staples like rice cost $7–8 per bag and powdered milk is $18.

And this isn’t limited to the north , grocery stores in South-Central Somalia, including major cities like Mogadishu, list similar prices online.
View attachment 363308

View attachment 363309

These stores, markets, and suppliers wouldn’t survive , let alone grow , if there wasn’t sufficient demand. You can’t have shelves stocked with high-cost goods, multiple branches, and daily turnover unless people have enough disposable income to afford them.

Also, while insecurity and displacement affect some areas more than others, they don’t erase the reality that people are still earning, buying, and consuming across regions. Even families in difficult regions have income sources , from livestock/agriculture, remittances, trade/businesses, or extended family. The idea that only an ‘elite few’ support all this activity doesn’t match the scale of what we’re seeing on the ground.

So if prices are consistent and shops are operating across Somalia, that tells you purchasing power is real , and more widespread than assumed.

Why can't you be consistent?!
The entire thread is about how false the reported GDP of Somalia is, that literally means disagreeing with most of economic stats from the government, labeling them as unreliable. I agree with that assesment, but you keep going back to gov figures and stats to prove a point which makes your entire argument a walking contradiction.

Either you stick with govt figures and reports that say the GDP is 10.5 billion, remittances are 2.1 Billion etc or let's throw them out and make our own analysis based on logical reasoning and experience of the country.

You can't be cherry picking on which figures suit your argument and which dont.

The notion that Somalia's GDP is close to 90 billion making Somalia the 10th richest country in Africa is just a fantasy with all due respect, it makes no sense and its not even probable.

There's also a 2023 report from Somali gov that you quoted that said 60% of people aged 15 and above are unemployed, I disagree with that report because I'd say the actual unemployment rate of that group is slightly higher than that, but still it's close to my own figure. The population of Somalia in 2023 was roughly 17 million. 47% of the population is between Age 0-14, which means, 9 million is the remaining population that's above 15, it would mean 5.4 Million people work in Somalia, slightly higher than the 4 million I posted earlier. That's if we take that report at face value which I don't.

In conclusion, We both agree that the reported GDP of Somalia is false, according to my own assessments I'd say it's close to 21 Billion, while your estimation is close to 90 Billion, which is an over exaggeration if I being honest.