Have the .So economists make the case, and explain as to the benefits to joining the EAC market?
To be honest with you, I'm not well versed with how Somali economists view EAC. I've mostly followed the political aspects in the process of joining the union.
Ideally, the biggest advantage from a regional union for Somalia would be if there were already a shared currency. It would've spared us the time consuming project, and uncertainty, of moving from a dollar based market to Somali Shilling, which needs to happen in due time. So far there's little insensitive from the Somali business sector to make the move.
Proponents of EAC argue that, with a trade bloc representing 500+ million people, that it would enable us to reach maximum potential of trade/economic growth as EAC will be viewed as one entity, economically speaking, removing all barriers between the nations.
This is great in theory, but one can argue that it's somewhat premature for Somalia. We're currently in the very beginning of the state building process, while other countries at a far advanced position, rendering us fragile while they are more robust in seeking their interest though this union. Frankly speaking, the FMS of Somalia today operate as different countries since each FMS has their own financial policies, taxes etc. and we haven't reached a consensus amongst us yet.
In any way, we are an import dependent country. Joining EAC means that other member countries may replace some of the goods we import from elsewhere. Which is great in a way as it will increase competitiveness and offer commodities at a lower price. The biggest worry is that we don't have any major industries to export to EAC in return. Resulting in a significant decrease in the share of domestic traders in our markets, who unfortunately may not have access to the same resources. Especially dealing with larger companies/conglomerates that we have so few off. On the flip-side, investors from EAC could play a vital role in the many untapped markets of Somalia, that today is held back by lack of resources.
The gov't therefore need to play an important role to reap the economic benefits of the union. This includes, but not limited to, accessing loans, both on their own and through EAC, (and development aid, if possible) to invest in high-growth industries, as well as our current 'niches' such as agriculture, fishing, livestock etc and thus increase our trade/export. We're also in dire need of infrastructure throughout the country, which could release unrealized economic potentials. Also, we have the longest coastline in the union and need to optimize the role our strategic location can play such as boosting EAC trade, in particular 'the East', through our shores. But overall, FGS needs to safeguard the interests of its citizens. And we should not let internal strifes, our biggest hurdle atm, get in the way of national interests.
Freedom of movement within EAC means that Somalis can easily use their entrepreneurial skills to move to the other countries and thrive. The Somali community in Nairobi is a testament to that. Since the standard of living is lower in Somalia, there's a worry that there could be brain drain heading south. This patter can be seen in EU, where eastern/southern Europeans have migrated in droves to the west and resulted in decreased economic performances in their countries of origin.
Sorry for this long read. Let me cut it short here. Regardless of whether Somali economists would argue in favor or against EAC, I highly doubt that FGS would change their mind. While already on the path now, as long as the gov't is proactive with a clear policy and firm in their agenda of economic prosperity, we could bear the fruits of the union to some extent, from an economic perspective. If not, then I'd be concerned that we may be on the loser end.
