Somalia National Transformation Plan (NTP) 2025-2029

[Midas]

This is probably not going to happen as long as shabaab is a thing, there's steps to this so focusing on the first steps would be a better idea for now

If alshaba is still an issue in 10 years
We can basically kiss goodbye any long term development of somalia. So in that sense im not too worried

 

[Barkhadle1520]

If alshaba is still an issue in 10 years
We can basically kiss goodbye any long term development of somalia. So in that sense im not too worried

I'm sure there was someone in 2015 saying the same exact thing

With FGS you never know

 

[Midas]

For anybody intrestd in the significance of the detection of life on mars this video gives a pretty good rundown of why its important




TDLR: basically there'd a very high chance that at least macrobial life once existed on mars and its also likely that if it did exists theres a very decent chance its of a completely different origin than earth. Which would mean the DNA would be compelled different than anything on earth.

What he doesn't discuss in the video is that theres a chance that this alien microbial life still exists since theres water underneath mars. As well as ice caps on the surface of mars that would persevere frozen bacteria which we could revive and is something we've done before on earth

 

[Midas]

@Idilinaa

I did some basic calculations and if we assume that somalia's stated gdp is about $15 billion is around 25% of the real ubmeasured gdp then we have a gdp of about $60 billion if we calculated the somali region as about half that than we end up with something like $90 billion dollars for the gdp of somaliweyene.

If we grow at a rate of 6-7 % for the next 25 years which i dont think is hard if we factor in oil revenues and we also add that the pouplation of somaliweyen is likley to double from the current (19 million somalia + 16 million somali region ) 35 million to about 75 million. Than we could reach about $1 trillion total gdp by 2050.

While this might sound shocking we have a perfect example in Vietnam which grew around 6.2% in the last 25 years and only grew its pouplation from 77 million in 2000 to 101 million in 2025.


This is how quickly gdp grew because of that

 

[Midas]

Honestly im probably underestimating it because 33 to 476 billion is 15.8x increase in size. If you multiplied somalia alone by that you'd get 60 × 15.8 = $952 billion.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

@Idilinaa

I did some basic calculations and if we assume that somalia's stated gdp is about $15 billion is around 25% of the real ubmeasured gdp then we have a gdp of about $60 billion if we calculated the somali region as about half that than we end up with something like $90 billion dollars for the gdp of somaliweyene.

If we grow at a rate of 6-7 % for the next 25 years which i dont think is hard if we factor in oil revenues and we also add that the pouplation of somaliweyen is likley to double from the current (19 million somalia + 16 million somali region ) 35 million to about 75 million. Than we could reach about $1 trillion total gdp by 2050.

While this might sound shocking we have a perfect example in Vietnam which grew around 6.2% in the last 25 years and only grew its pouplation from 77 million in 2000 to 101 million in 2025.


This is how quickly gdp grew because of that

View attachment 373404View attachment 373405

Vietnam doesnt have any of the major problems were facing and its a united country, bad example, also galbeed's economy isnt that great compared to somalia, except jigjiga

 

[Midas]

Vietnam doesnt have any of the major problems were facing and its a united country, bad example, also galbeed's economy isnt that great compared to somalia, except jigjiga

Sure but I'm talking more about the principle. Our economy and the path we taken proably won't be the same as Vietnam. But through Vietnam we see that you dont require insane china level growth to massively increase your gdp. Before I looked into Vietnam I didnt think it would even logically be possible to go from $60 billion to $952 billion in 25 years. Let alone that it would only take a 6-7% growth rate.

also galbeed's economy isnt that great compared to somalia, except jigjiga

Thats why I used the $60 billion gdp of somalia alone in my example. But I think even if galbeed is not 30 billion its probably at least 15 billion. Which if you add that into the calculation would be 75 x 15.8 = $1.185 trillion.

 

[Idilinaa]

Another very big opportunity which in my mind is actually bigger than A.i and is the opportunity of the century is the spaceport they're planning to build. I was reading about this discovery and the implications once they bring back real anicent macrobial life from mars will likely trigger a new space race. Since who knows what potenial advances in biological and chemistry this might open the doors to



View attachment 373393


If the somali political elite play their cards right and divert a significant amount of the oil revenues into building the infrastructure around the spaceport and making sure that the city that springs up around it is one of the best spaceports then the talent thats attracted by the big companies using that spaceport will guarantee somalia will develop a massive amount of scientific and technical talent in the coming decades. Since any space endeavor requires all sorts of scientists and engineers.

You see it like I do , Turkey is basically a technology and R&D cheat code for Somalia to build capacity for large-scale projects like a spaceport.

We can leverage our strategic partnership with them not just for tech transfers, but also to build a military defense/industry, especially since Turkey is already planning to open factories to produce weapons while outsourcing part of their manufacturing to Somalia.

And the timing aligns perfectly because Hormuud is expanding solar-powered AI data centers to meet surging demand:

Hormuud Telecom Expands Solar-Powered Data Centers for AI Growth - TechAfrica News

Hormuud Telecom invests in solar-powered data centers, driving Somalia’s AI economy and renewable tech advancements.

techafricanews.com

Also, SOMINVEST publications highlight that the fintech and telecom sectors are now looking to invest in manufacturing ICT and AI hardware, equipment, and renewable tech.

They’ve already launched software development companies like Tabarak ICT and various education-driven tech initiatives through SomaliREN to build a skilled workforce:

Hormuud Salaam Foundation Partners with SomaliREN and Tabaarak ICT to Drive Tech Skill Development for Somali Students

Hormuud Salaam Foundation Partners with SomaliREN and Tabaarak ICT to Drive Tech Skill Development for Somali Students

www.garoweonline.com

So the foundational infrastructure, skilled human capital pipeline, and local demand base are already emerging which means Somalia can genuinely turn this into a powerful high-tech niche.

 

[Midas]

You see it like I do , Turkey is basically a technology and R&D cheat code for Somalia to build capacity for large-scale projects like a spaceport.

We can leverage our strategic partnership with them not just for tech transfers, but also to build a military industrial complex, especially since Turkey is already planning to open factories to produce weapons while outsourcing part of their manufacturing to Somalia.
View attachment 373418

And the timing aligns perfectly because Hormuud is expanding solar-powered AI data centers to meet surging demand:

Hormuud Telecom Expands Solar-Powered Data Centers for AI Growth - TechAfrica News

Hormuud Telecom invests in solar-powered data centers, driving Somalia’s AI economy and renewable tech advancements.

techafricanews.com

Also, SOMINVEST publications highlight that the fintech and telecom sectors are now looking to invest in manufacturing ICT and AI hardware, equipment, and renewable tech.

They’ve already launched software development companies like Tabarak ICT and various education-driven tech initiatives through SomaliREN to build a skilled workforce:

Hormuud Salaam Foundation Partners with SomaliREN and Tabaarak ICT to Drive Tech Skill Development for Somali Students

Hormuud Salaam Foundation Partners with SomaliREN and Tabaarak ICT to Drive Tech Skill Development for Somali Students

www.garoweonline.com

So the foundational infrastructure, skilled human capital pipeline, and local demand base are already emerging which means Somalia can genuinely turn this into a powerful high-tech niche.

Exactly. One thing I realized after looking into russia and china is that if you want to speed the development of the building of scientific and technical instutions is that you need foreign advisors and experts to get thing off the ground.

The reason siad barre was able to build such a strong army so quickly was in large part due to the soviet union providing several hundred advisors in the beginning.


Just look at the situation in the early 60s vs the 70s

 

[Idilinaa]

Exactly. One thing I realized after looking into russia and china is that if you want to speed the development of the building of scientific and technical instutions is that you need foreign advisors and experts to get thing off the ground.

The reason siad barre was able to build such a strong army so quickly was in large part due to the soviet union providing several hundred advisors in the beginning.


Just look at the situation in the early 60s vs the 70s

View attachment 373443View attachment 373444

China received heavy technology transfer and technical assistance first from Soviet and then later through Foxconn who made Apple train millions of Chinese Engineers and other countries were made to do the same could only operate factories inside the countries with condition that they share their technology and train the domestic work force. So what China did was apply this to their military industry. They leveraged their human capital.

Every country is the same they needed foreign technical assistance and copied technology and re-worked models from other countries. Iran did the the same as well.

For example under the Shah, Iran imported advanced fighter jets, tanks, and artillery from the US, UK, France, and Germany. Training was also provided by foreign advisors in 1950-70s. Then in 1970s they started to use that same western tech by building domestic factories for small arms, ammo, and some armored vehicles but largely assembled foreign designs.

Post 1979s revolution they got heavily sanctioned , so they go cut off by Western support, Iran acquired Chinese small arms, missiles, and military tech. Early missile and UAV programs were based on reverse engineered Chinese, North Korean, and Soviet designs.

If you look at nearly every country its the same trajectory. Unlike Iran/NK/China, Somalia can legally partner with a strategic partner like Turkey to acquire tech under a ToT agreement.

Turkey’s ASFAT, Baykar, and TAI already have experience exporting co-production contracts with ToT.

What Somalia should focus the most on in my opinion and should follow the same model as Iran/NK build heavy missile/naval arsenals because of existential threats. Top priority should be securing maritime borders, key ports, and UAV capabilities rather than building heavy artillery or fighter jets.

I think this is where Somalia is headed by relaunching their navy they already ordered naval fleets which will be delivered most likely around 2026

 

[Idilinaa]

I think Somalis have a lot in common with the Chinese. I recently learned that the Chinese have a social-business network called "Guanxi" an informal, trust-based system that helps overseas Chinese support and collaborate with each other based on shared background.

Guanxi - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

In a similar way, Somalis have their own social-business networks, but I’d say ours are even more ethical and extend beyond just kinship ties. It would be great to coin a proper term to describe it. ‘Iskashaato’ captures part of it , the cooperative and vertically integrated business model but something broader could really define this unique Somali approach

Another advantage that sets Somalis apart is the strong domestic market.
Unlike many developing countries that have weak local demand and must rely heavily on exports (often keeping wages low to stay competitive), Somalia has a large, consumption-driven internal market where most business activity is owned by and circulates among Somalis themselves.

This allows Somali firms to grow big at home first, building capital, brand power, and supply chains before expanding abroad similar to how China’s rise began by dominating its own domestic market before going global. Somalia is already globally integrated via its transnational networks.

But Somalia’s model is even more bottom up: rather than state-led giants, it’s networks of private Somali entrepreneurs who reinvest earnings locally, which spreads wealth and strengthens demand further.

China, by contrast, has a structural weakness in domestic demand. A strong saving culture means households save as much as 70% of their earnings, so while China produces massively, it does not consume at the same scale, forcing it to export much of its output. The day China shifts toward consuming its own production, wages there could rise dramatically.


Somalia already has what China still struggles with a vertically integrated supply chain network and a demand led domestic economy, meaning production and industrialization will be naturally pulled forward by local consumption.


This is why Somalia’s industrial takeoff can accelerate much faster than other developing countries that depend on external markets to grow.

 

[Idilinaa]

Honestly they will grow naturally with the economy, as small businesses and start-ups grow the banks will grow with them, its not something to worry about

Im pretty sure premier bank even launched a new domestic airline last year with modern jets

https://flypremierairline.com/

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There are more successful airlines that have smaller modern Jets.

STARSKY AVIATION WAS NAMED BEST AIRLINE OF THE YEAR AT SOMALI NIGHT AWARDS

Starsky Aviation Ltd is a six-time award-winning Somali-owned airline offering reliable air charter, passenger & cargo flights, aircraft leasing, Hajj & Umrah packages, and spare parts. Connecting East Africa and beyond with excellence.

starskyaviation.com

Shueib Ali Warsame The CEO and Founder of Maandeeq Air Secures a Spot on the List of the 100 Most Influential Somali People of 2023 - Somali Magazine

Charting New Heights in Mogadishu's Skies: The Aviator's Odyssey Born amidst the vibrant tapestry of the Benadir region in Mogadishu, Somalia, Shueib Ali Warsame has emerged as a pioneering figure and entrepreneurial force in the ever-evolving field of aviation. His early fascination with flight...

somalimagazine.so

So Premier isn't really unique forerunner in this sense. These airlines are in many ways connected to logistics/freighting networks across East Africa and UAE carrying large cargo's and operate internationally as well and provide wholesale travel.

It goes back to what i said before their proliferation more or less reflect economic growth and the high traffic Somalia experiencing that i mentioned on the other page, which creates more demand:

Another thing that highlights how large the increased economic growth/trade has been is the air traffic coming into Somalia, which has made the airport congested because it was not originally built to handle that volume. If official numbers undercount trade and passenger flows, then the “unexpected” congestion at Mogadishu airport makes sense. What’s happening on the ground (more goods, more travelers, more business flows) is outpacing what the official books show.

So improving aviation infrastructure became a national priority

View attachment 372936


and the Aviation minister said she has received numerous requests from major airlines that wish to start flying into Mogadishu but are hampered by the congestion. They collected 3.4 billion investments from Somalis domestically and from Somali transnational business community to sink into development to transform the city to improve connectivity.
View attachment 372937

They already began investing 1 billion into the airport to launch constructions:

Somalia Launches Construction of New Mogadishu International Airport in Warsheekh - Somali Magazine

Facebook Twitter (X) Instagram Somali Magazine - People's Magazine On Sunday, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud pressed a ceremonial button that marked the official start of construction. He told the crowd that the project is a “big step forward” for a country that is rebuilding after decades of...

somalimagazine.so

This also supports what i said to @Hilmaam in the China thread how world class and advanced certain local Somali construction companies have become to be trusted with such complex high value projects. This will keep all the money in the economy , creates jobs for Somali engineers and technicians. It's creates a lot of skill building that can be transferred into other projects in the future.

View attachment 372938

The local job creation and economic growth will be immense, the airport development is domestically driven.
View attachment 372940


I can't imagine the explosion of economic growth this will create. This also shows the advantage of having a transnational business empire: it channels this massive trade surplus back into Somalia and provides a steady, continuous stream of investment and foreign currency to strengthen our reserves.

A transnational conglomerate or business network is a huge advantage because Somalia can eventually take the excess reserves from trade and corporate profits and invest them into a sovereign wealth fund. That would give Somalia financial independence, a buffer against shocks, and create real investment capacity at home.

With strong reserves and a sovereign wealth fund, Somalia could directly finance infrastructure, education and healthcare, and innovation avoiding dependence on foreign loans. Instead, Somalia would self-finance its own development, just as Singapore and South Korea did after building their corporate empires.

The Mogadishu Development Corporation is a step in exactly that direction much like Singapore’s Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) and Temasek Holdings

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Another advantage that sets Somalis apart is the strong domestic market.
Unlike many developing countries that have weak local demand and must rely heavily on exports (often keeping wages low to stay competitive), Somalia has a large, consumption-driven internal market where most business activity is owned by and circulates among Somalis themselves.

This allows Somali firms to grow big at home first, building capital, brand power, and supply chains before expanding abroad similar to how China’s rise began by dominating its own domestic market before going global. Somalia is already globally integrated via its transnational networks.

Yeah this is a real advantage when you think about it, we dodged the sweat shop phase lol

 

[Barkhadle1520]

There are more successful airlines that have smaller modern Jets.
View attachment 373472

View attachment 373473

STARSKY AVIATION WAS NAMED BEST AIRLINE OF THE YEAR AT SOMALI NIGHT AWARDS

Starsky Aviation Ltd is a six-time award-winning Somali-owned airline offering reliable air charter, passenger & cargo flights, aircraft leasing, Hajj & Umrah packages, and spare parts. Connecting East Africa and beyond with excellence.

starskyaviation.com

View attachment 373474

Shueib Ali Warsame The CEO and Founder of Maandeeq Air Secures a Spot on the List of the 100 Most Influential Somali People of 2023 - Somali Magazine

Charting New Heights in Mogadishu's Skies: The Aviator's Odyssey Born amidst the vibrant tapestry of the Benadir region in Mogadishu, Somalia, Shueib Ali Warsame has emerged as a pioneering figure and entrepreneurial force in the ever-evolving field of aviation. His early fascination with flight...

somalimagazine.so

View attachment 373475

So Premier isn't really unique forerunner in this sense. These airlines are in many ways connected to logistics/freighting networks across East Africa and UAE carrying large cargo's and operate internationally as well and provide wholesale travel.

It goes back to what i said before their proliferation more or less reflect economic growth and the high traffic Somalia experiencing that i mentioned on the other page, which creates more demand:

Starsky and mandeeq dont have any jets theyre really small domestic airlines

Maybe in a decade these small domestic airlines will grow bigger as more people fly, considering how big the country is id rather fly from xamar to galkacyo than drive which is more than 15 hours if youre on an express way

Its also cheaper to take the plane

 

[Idilinaa]

Starsky and mandeeq dont have any jets theyre really small domestic airlines

View attachment 373476

Maybe in a decade these small domestic airlines will grow bigger as more people fly, considering how big the country is id rather fly from xamar to bosaso than drive

The Phenom 300E is a jet (a modern business jet).

Embraer P-300E - STARSKY AIRLINES

Jet Specification Embraer P-300E Ut non augue egestas, commodo velit eget, vestibulum tellus. Curabitur vulputate justo elit, at elementum orci pulvinar vel. The development of center-aisle cabin business jets was accelerated by an August 1956 United States Air Force (USAF) letter of the...

starskyairlines.com

And Fokker 70 is a regional jet airliner (although its not modern)

Somalia's Maandeeq Air charters F70 capacity

Interested in Commercial Aviation/Business Aviation? Unlock exclusive news such as “Somalia's Maandeeq Air charters F70 capacity” today!

www.ch-aviation.com

They are newer players but they have grown a lot and expanded so its shows how dynamic the Somali Aviation industry is and how much the demand is growing.

 

[Idilinaa]

Yeah this is a real advantage when you think about it, we dodged the sweat shop phase lol

Yep, strong local demand domestic market base is why Somalia does not need ultra cheap labor to stay competitive.

Also, because of the heavy investments now going into STEM education, vocational training, and TVET programs, Somalia is building up a highly skilled domestic workforce. They made this into a mandate cross-regionally.


This will make it increasingly uncommon for Somali companies to rely on importing foreign workers, since the local labor market itself will be able to supply the technical and specialized skills needed for industrialization and large scale project.

 

[Cartan Boos]

Another advantage that sets Somalis apart is the strong domestic market.
Unlike many developing countries that have weak local demand and must rely heavily on exports (often keeping wages low to stay competitive), Somalia has a large, consumption-driven internal market where most business activity is owned by and circulates among Somalis themselves.

This allows Somali firms to grow big at home first, building capital, brand power, and supply chains before expanding abroad similar to how China’s rise began by dominating its own domestic market before going global. Somalia is already globally integrated via its transnational networks.

But Somalia’s model is even more bottom up: rather than state-led giants, it’s networks of private Somali entrepreneurs who reinvest earnings locally, which spreads wealth and strengthens demand further.

China, by contrast, has a structural weakness in domestic demand. A strong saving culture means households save as much as 70% of their earnings, so while China produces massively, it does not consume at the same scale, forcing it to export much of its output. The day China shifts toward consuming its own production, wages there could rise dramatically.


Somalia already has what China still struggles with a vertically integrated supply chain network and a demand led domestic economy, meaning production and industrialization will be naturally pulled forward by local consumption.


This is why Somalia’s industrial takeoff can accelerate much faster than other developing countries that depend on external markets to grow.

I really like reading your take on things, really optimistic guy

 

[Midas]

China received heavy technology transfer and technical assistance first from Soviet and then later through Foxconn who made Apple train millions of Chinese Engineers and other countries were made to do the same could only operate factories inside the countries with condition that they share their technology and train the domestic work force. So what China did was apply this to their military industry. They leveraged their human capital.

Every country is the same they needed foreign technical assistance and copied technology and re-worked models from other countries. Iran did the the same as well.

For example under the Shah, Iran imported advanced fighter jets, tanks, and artillery from the US, UK, France, and Germany. Training was also provided by foreign advisors in 1950-70s. Then in 1970s they started to use that same western tech by building domestic factories for small arms, ammo, and some armored vehicles but largely assembled foreign designs.

Post 1979s revolution they got heavily sanctioned , so they go cut off by Western support, Iran acquired Chinese small arms, missiles, and military tech. Early missile and UAV programs were based on reverse engineered Chinese, North Korean, and Soviet designs.

If you look at nearly every country its the same trajectory. Unlike Iran/NK/China, Somalia can legally partner with a strategic partner like Turkey to acquire tech under a ToT agreement.

Turkey’s ASFAT, Baykar, and TAI already have experience exporting co-production contracts with ToT.

What Somalia should focus the most on in my opinion and should follow the same model as Iran/NK build heavy missile/naval arsenals because of existential threats. Top priority should be securing maritime borders, key ports, and UAV capabilities rather than building heavy artillery or fighter jets.

I think this is where Somalia is headed by relaunching their navy they already ordered naval fleets which will be delivered most likely around 2026

Definitely i think we should focus espcially on drones and getting maybe drone factories built in somalia. Since its pretty clear from the russian Ukraine war that drones are the future.

The naval fleet is already being built but it should definitely be increased and there should definitely be intrest in acquiring ships from other countries besides turkey

 

[Idilinaa]

I really like reading your take on things, really optimistic guy

I wouldn't say i am entirely optimistic, i can be critical. I just view and discuss things from a development perspective, that's how i approach every topic. There is a lot of meaningful development happening all the time, they are often overshadowed by political theatrics.

 

[Idilinaa]

Definitely i think we should focus espcially on drones and getting maybe drone factories built in somalia. Since its pretty clear from the russian Ukraine war that drones are the future.

The naval fleet is already being built but it should definitely be increased and there should definitely be intrest in acquiring ships from other countries besides turkey

Besides the Gulf and East Africa, Turkey is the only market willing to sell to Somalia directly. This is likely due to Turkey’s active defense export policies and its willingness to engage with countries that other suppliers may consider high-risk or politically sensitive.

Most other nations either have strict arms export regulations, political concerns, or logistical constraints that prevent direct military sales to Somalia, making Turkey a practical and strategic partner for building up both naval capabilities and other defense technologies like drones.