Somalia National Transformation Plan (NTP) 2025-2029

Also @Midas speaking of livestock commercialization, not sure if you saw me shared this a few weeks ago in a different thread.

From an IGAD/ICPALD study, even in 2013 like a year into Somalia's 2nd economic recovery they found a discrepancy between their own direct production estimates and SBS/IMF GDP figures when they directly measured the livestock economy.

As they said:
''The Production based approach places the contribution of the Livestock to the Somalia economy at 8.152 billion in 2013. This figure is above the IMF estimate of Agriculture GDP of 5.7 billion USD where livestock contributes 2.28 billion."

View attachment 373683

They even explain that the figures given by the Somali government and the IMF are due to lack of accurate statistical data and differences in methodological approach. So basically livestocks GDP value was underestimated by 103%
View attachment 373684

Now this isn't the most interesting part about it. The most interesting part is that they found that people would use livestock as a financial vehicle and convert them into financial assets. Use it as ''credit" meaning people could liquidate herds to access funds, or treat them as collateral/financial reserves. It compares this to the opportunity cost of formal credit finance, showing that livestock filled the role of self-financing or self-insurance for business activity.

So essentially, livestock acted like capital , a store of wealth that people could convert into liquid financial resources to start or expand businesses, buy goods, or invest in other sectors.

View attachment 373685

Now why am i mentioning this? because it directly supports my earlier point that Somalis converted livestock wealth into capital for business and trade, which then accelerated urbanization and diversification of the economy.

Btw, official stats in 2013 put Somalia’s GDP at about $5.3 billion(2.2 billion of it was livestock), yet IPALD’s own production estimate which didn’t even account for most of the informal livestock trade or the bulk of its financial conversion still found it to be around $8.9 billion.

And that was back then. Now consider how much has changed since with camel and livestock farming shifting into towns, the rise of dairy factories, tanneries, slaughterhouses, and the massive expansion of financial inclusion and digitization. The scale of economic activity today is likely far beyond what official figures reflect.

Now apply this logic to trade and non-livestock sectors (real estate/construction, manufacturing, crop-farming, fisheries, retail, services, finance etc.) that weren’t captured by national accounts. Same story.
 
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Early 2024 they signed a bill on Public private partnerships, havent read it but looks like they realized the full potential of the private sector
The companies also seem to be putting a lot of effort into presentation in their videos. I can only hope they do this with actual conferences and events.
 
You know if I had to explain what is behind all this is that anytime somebody talks about economic development the bring up the need for property rights and the legal and administrative framework behind this but then they get to the actual reason why all that is necessary which is to encourage individuals and business to take risks and invest

what if you could do that without goverment guarantees? Thats baiscally what clans and the kinship structures behind the clan system allow somali buisnessman to do
 
Fascinating i wonder if the livestock as credit is a new innovation or if it was just a standard cultural practice.
It would definitely be interesting to look into, but honestly it’s kind of funny when you think about it. If you look at our history, livestock was never just food , it was caravan transport, tradeable goods, and even raw material for early industries. That wealth base enabled urbanization back then. What’s happening now is really the same story, just in a modern setup where livestock not only rendered into tradeable/processed goods but also gets converted into financial assets and credit.

Also, it seems like the actual implication of them underestimating the livestock contribution to gdp by 4x is that the economy is several times larger. Do they consider that in the paper ?
Nope, they don’t even mention it. That’s the whole issue , they constantly throw out stats that contradict each other but never stop to process what those contradictions mean.

Like, they admit livestock is underestimated by 4x but don’t connect that to how it blows up the GDP picture. Same with cross-border trade , they say it’s 2–5x higher than official stats but still rely on neighbors’ bookkeeping, which is ridiculous given how Somali business operates transnationally.

Even the gov’s own docs are contradictory: they call agriculture the backbone, but then show only 26% in agri, 56% in services, 18% in industry. That doesn’t add up.

And household consumption already exceeds GDP by 100%+. How does $2B in remittances explain a consumption they peg at $15B (and even that’s low, since mobile money transactions alone showed $20B in payment to services and consumption back in 2018). Foreign aid isn’t an explanation either, since most passes through the government, whose entire spending is under 1% of household consumption.

Then they toss out per capita $695. How would a mostly service/industry economy where 74% are employed in even function at that? Who’s paying wages? Who’s making profits? How could people afford anything? It makes no sense.

Honestly it’s like they delete their brain cells when writing about Somalia and just recycle the same condescending image instead of actually digesting the numbers in front of them.
 
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@midad @Idilinaa If Somalia were as well off as you suspect, i.e it being a lower middle income country, import volumes would have to be much larger than they are now. Somalia's food imports show that it is a very poor country with a GDP per capita >$1,000. Nearly a fifth of the calories consumed by Somalis come from sugar. Disaster.

https://nbs.gov.so/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Food-Security-Facts-Sheets-2024.pdf
Agenda aside, do you seriously believe Somalia is as poor as actual sub 1000 GDP capita SSA countries ?

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Thegoodshepherd

Galkacyo iyo Calula dhexdood
VIP
Agenda aside, do you seriously believe Somalia is as poor as actual sub 1000 GDP capita SSA countries ?

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I actually think Somalia is poorer than many sub $1000 nominal GDP per capita countries. Why? Because in many of those countries people remain subsistence farmers and are able to produce their own food. Somalia does not produce crops, not really. The only food it produces in notable quantities is milk, but there is no storage infrastructure so much of it goes to waste. Almost all Somalis are dependent for their subsistence on the market. The Somali economy is actually well understood. There is not much wealth or income that is obscured.

In a country like Ethiopia, where much of the population is made up of subsistence farmers, the GDP per capita figure downplays the ability to consume as many people are able to grow their own cereals and vegetables and trade for their milk & meat. Most of this activity is not captured in official statistics, their economy is much more opaque than ours.
 
I actually think Somalia is poorer than many sub $1000 nominal GDP per capita countries. Why? Because in many of those countries people remain subsistence farmers and are able to produce their own food. Somalia does not produce crops, not really. The only food it produces in notable quantities is milk, but there is no storage infrastructure so much of it goes to waste. Almost all Somalis are dependent for their subsistence on the market. The Somali economy is actually well understood. There is not much wealth or income that is obscured.

In a country like Ethiopia, where much of the population is made up of subsistence farmers, the GDP per capita figure downplays the ability to consume as many people are able to grow their own cereals and vegetables and trade for their milk & meat. Most of this activity is not captured in official statistics, their economy is much more opaque than ours.
I don't think Somalia is as poor as those countries because you don't see mass slums or hordes of beggers anywhere in Somali cities like you do in other African countries. Those traits are usually a tell tale sign that a country is suffering from crippling poverty. In fact, a lot of people in Somaliland and Puntland live in normal homes and can afford plenty of expenses.

And I'm sure this has been mentioned many times but the Somali economy is largely informal and uses mobile transactions for much of its economic activity. Unfortunately FGS has yet to tax or take it into account so a lot of wealth is indeed obscured. By contrast its pretty hard for agricultural based economies to hide their real activity.

Its true that Ethiopia grows a lot of its food but the country still faces famines, food shortages and food insecurity. The problem comes down to low productivity, low income and high prices, poor infrastructure ect.
 
@midad @Idilinaa If Somalia were as well off as you suspect, i.e it being a lower middle income country, import volumes would have to be much larger than they are now. Somalia's food imports show that it is a very poor country with a GDP per capita >$1,000. Nearly a fifth of the calories consumed by Somalis come from sugar. Disaster.

https://nbs.gov.so/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Food-Security-Facts-Sheets-2024.pdf

Not only are Somalia’s import/export volumes much larger in reality, even the World Bank admits trade stats are severely underestimated because they don’t use Somalia’s own direct figures and fail to capture most informal trade
That report I read literally said, ‘While official trade statistics severely underestimate trade in Somalia’ and then immediately launched into baseless gymnastics and unrelated accusations to downplay it, which shows incredible bias.
1757580462072-png.372951


When I checked the footnotes to see what it was referring to, I found that a separate study had actually found Somalia’s cross-border trade to be 2–5 times higher than reported, and estimated it employs 10–30% of the total population.
1757580550391-png.372952


That same study stated: '' As such cross border trade strengthens economic resilience, alleviates poverty , contributes to the urbanization of the country with a strengthened presence of cities as important centers of trade along strategic corridors. Such trade provides food security for border regions."
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This shows that this so-called ‘invisible’ trade is driving real development the informal economy isn’t just survival-level; it’s stabilizing communities and actively building cities.

It also says:
1757579682540-png.372950

but even if we take the official stats at face value, Somalis already import far more than they export.
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That alone undercuts your point: a genuinely poor country simply cannot afford to consistently import more than it exports. If it does, by definition, it has the income and purchasing power to pay for it. You can’t dismiss that by hand-waving toward remittances or aid, because even if those were the main drivers, it would still mean Somalis have higher effective incomes. You’re unintentionally proving my point.

On top of that, the foreign exchange financing these imports doesn’t mainly come from aid or remittances , it comes from trade itself, transnational Somali businesses, conglomerates, and direct diaspora investment.


And when it comes to food security, I’ve already covered this in detail in another thread using direct reporting from the World Food Programme (WFP) and the Global Food Security Cluster. For example, their latest updates note that

"Reports indicate that overrall food security conditions in Puntland are normal, with most households able to meet their basic food needs"
1758344751191.png


When these reports do highlight acute malnutrition or food insecurity, it’s overwhelmingly concentrated among IDPs or a small share of pastoral/nomadic groups , about 2–3% and 12% of the total population respectively, according to government data. But commentators rarely make that distinction, and instead project those conditions onto the whole country:
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The bigger picture is this: Somalia’s markets are stocked, most households are food secure, and people consume a variety of staples both locally produced cereals and imported goods.

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The obsession with ‘sugar imports’ as some kind of poverty marker is lazy. Yes, diets are heavy on carbs and sugar, but so are Western diets, and no one claims that makes the US or UK a poor country.


If you actually read supply-chain and market monitoring reports which are done bi-weekly or monthly you’ll see what they really show: reduced poverty, rising urbanization, and increased trade. That’s the story the data tells, if you’re willing to actually process it rather than recycle clichés:
That same study stated: '' As such cross border trade strengthens economic resilience, alleviates poverty , contributes to the urbanization of the country with a strengthened presence of cities as important centers of trade along strategic corridors. Such trade provides food security for border regions."
1758348375114.png
This part here that i quoted also plays a role in explaining the rapid urbanization of the country why it has 115 towns and 30 cities. 64% urbanized.

Trade creates steady demand for transport, storage, retail, services. These activities naturally cluster around towns and cities along main trade routes (the “strategic corridors” it mentioned).

Over time, small settlements grow into towns, and towns into cities, because they become logistics and commerce hubs.
It also makes the most sense why most of Somalia is food secure and their markets are fully stocked and supplied with food and how access , availability. quality, resilience and logistics rank high as per WOFP report: How wage labour and exchange rates remain stable throughout the country and as does prices:
1757676011283-png.373069

1757675393704-png.373068
Basically trade networks ensure constant flow of goods, especially food staples, even during shocks. Market competition that keeps prices stable.

Because when traders can import quickly across borders and move goods internally, markets stay stocked and prices stay stable even if one region has a bad harvest.

Why exchange rates remain stable?
Widespread trade generates regular inflows of foreign currency (USD) from exports and diaspora networks

Healthy wage labor markets are tied to logistics, transport, markets.

This keeps local purchasing power strong and helps stabilize exchange rates, unlike other countries that depend on single export sectors or foreign loans.

Now let’s come back to Somalia’s imports, because you narrowly focus on ‘food imports’ (which are heavily influenced by climate shocks) but miss the fact that manufactured goods make up a large bulk of all imports. In 2018, over a quarter of imports were machinery and transport equipment, 18% were chemical products, and the rest were other manufactured goods such as textiles, electronics, luxury cars and construction materials. These aren’t subsistence items , they reflect business expansion, capital accumulation, and rising urban consumption.

1758346813999.png



If Somalia were truly operating at the bare minimum subsistence level, its import profile would be dominated by food staples. Instead, the fact that such a large share of imports is tied to machinery, industrial inputs, and consumer goods shows that there’s significant purchasing power and capital investment happening.

In other words, food import dependence doesn’t erase the evidence of consumer wealth and urban-driven economic activity. Somalia’s economy is more complex than the ‘poor country with sugar imports’ framing allows.
 
I actually think Somalia is poorer than many sub $1000 nominal GDP per capita countries. Why? Because in many of those countries people remain subsistence farmers and are able to produce their own food. Somalia does not produce crops, not really. The only food it produces in notable quantities is milk, but there is no storage infrastructure so much of it goes to waste. Almost all Somalis are dependent for their subsistence on the market. The Somali economy is actually well understood. There is not much wealth or income that is obscured.

In a country like Ethiopia, where much of the population is made up of subsistence farmers, the GDP per capita figure downplays the ability to consume as many people are able to grow their own cereals and vegetables and trade for their milk & meat. Most of this activity is not captured in official statistics, their economy is much more opaque than ours.

You’re actually drawing the wrong conclusion here. The fact that Somalia is more urbanized and market-driven compared to countries where most people are still rural subsistence farmers shows the opposite of what you’re suggesting.

Subsistence farming isn’t a sign of hidden wealth , it’s the opposite. It means people are locked out of markets, producing just enough to survive without generating income, trade, or capital accumulation. That’s why so many ‘sub-$1000 GDP’ agrarian economies look deceptively poor on paper but still feed themselves , they aren’t creating value beyond survival.

Somalia, on the other hand, has transitioned heavily toward trade, services, finance, and commercialized livestock/agriculture. That shift means consumption is monetized, integrated into supply chains, and measured through actual transactions. Yes, Somalis depend on the market , but that’s not a weakness, it’s a strength, because it reflects higher levels of monetization, specialization, and purchasing power.

And your point about milk ‘going to waste’ is just outdated. In reality, milk, meat, and livestock are one of Somalia’s largest traded goods domestically, regionally, and even internationally. Dairy factories, tanneries, slaughterhouses, and commercial livestock farms are expanding across urban and peri-urban areas. The old image of milk spoiling without storage infrastructure doesn’t reflect the system that exists now.

So if anything, Ethiopia’s ‘subsistence opacity’ hides poverty rather than wealth, while Somalia’s urbanized, service heavy economy exposes the real flow of money. That’s why people keep underestimating Somalia’s GDP , they apply an agrarian-country lens to a market driven one.
 
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I don't think Somalia is as poor as those countries because you don't see mass slums or hordes of beggers anywhere in Somali cities like you do in other African countries. Those traits are usually a tell tale sign that a country is suffering from crippling poverty. In fact, a lot of people in Somaliland and Puntland live in normal homes and can afford plenty of expenses.
It’s wild to me how they ignore what’s right in front of their eyes because they’ve got this fixed image in their head.

If Somalis were really as poor as they claim, people wouldn’t even be able to survive there. Look at the prices of food, rent, electricity, school fees, water, transport , fuel none of that works on $2 a day.

We would see exactly what you see in other African countries with real crippling poverty: streets lined with beggars, mass desperation driven crime like theft/pick pocketing and burglary, and widespread homelessness. Instead, in Somalia, 99% in the North and 80% in the South live in improved housing in towns. The main crisis is displacement due to conflict/climate, not homelessness from poverty.

And honestly, how do they think the whole system runs? Telecom, electricity, water, landlords, shops all of that is private. Those businesses need paying customers to stay afloat. You think Somalis are paying their landlord $1 a month or topping up phones with $2 a month? The whole idea just collapses when you actually think about it.

Its true that Ethiopia grows a lot of its food but the country still faces famines, food shortages and food insecurity. The problem comes down to low productivity, low income and high prices, poor infrastructure ect.

It's because Ethiopian agriculture is not commercialized or linked to domestic market mechanisms the way it is in Somalia/Ogaden . Most households there survive on bare subsistence or they export most of it instead of catering to domestic markets. Why? because even when they do produce surplus , Ethiopians are too poor to pay for their own produce so they have to depend on external markets.

Thats actually why they lack spending power it is linked to their weak domestic market and that weak demand that discourages surplus production. I’m honestly baffled how @Thegoodshepherd sees that as a sign of wealth.

1758355692143.png



Meanwhile most agricultural and food produced into Somalia including Fish. Even of what's produce from the South are exported to the northern and central areas rather than only exported out because Somalis have enough spending power to pay for it. It circulates inside the country.

That’s why a Somali farmer unlike in Ethiopia can pull in $200–250 a week (around $1,000 a month) just from local market sales. And if they’re part of cooperatives or agribusiness networks , which many are they make even more.

1758353591818.png

1758353451915.png




"Locally grown produce in Puntlands markets is drawing wonder from shoppers used to buying fruits and vegetables trucked in from Mogadishu"
1758353472382.png
 
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reer

VIP
I actually think Somalia is poorer than many sub $1000 nominal GDP per capita countries. Why? Because in many of those countries people remain subsistence farmers and are able to produce their own food. Somalia does not produce crops, not really. The only food it produces in notable quantities is milk, but there is no storage infrastructure so much of it goes to waste. Almost all Somalis are dependent for their subsistence on the market. The Somali economy is actually well understood. There is not much wealth or income that is obscured.

In a country like Ethiopia, where much of the population is made up of subsistence farmers, the GDP per capita figure downplays the ability to consume as many people are able to grow their own cereals and vegetables and trade for their milk & meat. Most of this activity is not captured in official statistics, their economy is much more opaque than ours.
somalia lacks industry. yes you might make 250 dollars as a teacher and 3000 dollars as a surgeon but that makes somalia looks richer than it is. somalia doesnt have robust domestic industries. somalia might look richer than somewhere like egypt but it lacks their industry.
 
somalia lacks industry. yes you might make 250 dollars as a teacher and 3000 dollars as a surgeon but that makes somalia looks richer than it is. somalia doesnt have robust domestic industries. somalia might look richer than somewhere like egypt but it lacks their industry.

He’s not even arguing about industry , he is saying they lack ways to store food. I've actually shown that in many parts of the country they have set up storage and processing facilities, so it's an outdated reality.

But let’s actually take what @Thegoodshepherd said about “milk going to waste” and look at the incomes of people before and after introducing cooling/storage equipment. It completely kills the “$695 per capita” nonsense he keeps clinging to.

Take Sahra a rural mother from an area near Mogadishu, she sells camel and cow milk to support her family. Previously losing much of it to spoilage, her income rose from $7 to $20 a day after receiving training and basic cooling equipment from a Somali association, allowing her to sell fresher milk and better support her children.

Mind you this is from 2017:
Key points :
- The lowest wages that can be found in Somalia average at 7$ a day or 215$ a month or 2600$ a year, very far from the official number of 695$ a year.
- Even with 7$ a day this single mother could feed her 8 children and send them to school.
- Some micro-businesses like these can easily make 20$ a day or 620$ a month or 7450$ a year, indicating a stronger consumerism.
1758364251881.png


1758364290665.png



Another similar example. Milk sellers were able to triple their gains from $500-$700 per month to $3200 per month just by being given cool equipment and joining a business cooperative.
1758364475886.png



And again, these are rural underprivileged women, not an “urban elite.” Even without cooling/storage they were already making far more than the official GDP per capita claims.


It also extends to Fishing as well, which i am sure people are completely unaware of how much the fishing industry has grown in recent decade from 2013-2018 it grew by 300% : Millions are employed directly or indirectly through it because fishermen sell it to stores, shops, restaurants , processors, exporter etc
Thats 4500-6000 dollars per month he is earning. Thats a lot.

It shows to be true in this report as well.
1758366621729.png
Simply introducing cold storage made them earn ten times the average income which adds up to 4700 a month.
1758366631112.png

1758366649462.png
They have done this across many parts of Somalia/Puntland/Somaliland local companies and the government set up cold chains and it boosted peoples income.

View attachment 372644
View attachment 372645
This fish processing company explaining how they have built cold chain infrastructure across various towns.
1758366813882.png

From the above the report from 2019 it showed the average fisherman earned 470 dollars a month in 2018 and now they on average earn 15k$ to 20k$ a year from catches made on their small fishing boats
See this:
1758366032700.png



We have collected many such examples across sectors etc. That i will organize into post InshaAllah. This is what i was talking about before they don't look at direct income statements or base it from a consumer price index to measure real income per capita.

There is no way these examples can earn 1000-6000 USD a month with weak or poor consumer market economy as people like to claim.
 
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Because in many of those countries people remain subsistence farmers and are able to produce their own food. Somalia does not produce crops, not really.
Importing most of your food makes you low income ? Do you know how many middle income countries have to import all their food ? Jordan is an example that came to mind but theres tons of others really, thats the dumbest argument i heard tbh
The only food it produces in notable quantities is milk, but there is no storage infrastructure so much of it goes to waste.
I dont even know how this logic works, even without cold storage people who sell caano make way above 1000 a year, the minimum i seen is 7$ a day
 
He’s not even arguing about industry , he is saying they lack ways to store food. I've actually shown that in many parts of the country they have set up storage and processing facilities, so it's an outdated reality.

But let’s actually take what @Thegoodshepherd said about “milk going to waste” and look at the incomes of people before and after introducing cooling/storage equipment. It completely kills the “$695 per capita” nonsense he keeps clinging to.

Take Sahra a rural mother from an area near Mogadishu, she sells camel and cow milk to support her family. Previously losing much of it to spoilage, her income rose from $7 to $20 a day after receiving training and basic cooling equipment from a Somali association, allowing her to sell fresher milk and better support her children.

Mind you this is from 2017:
Key points :
- The lowest wages that can be found in Somalia average at 7$ a day or 215$ a month or 2600$ a year, very far from the official number of 695$ a year.
- Even with 7$ a day this single mother could feed her 8 children and send them to school.
- Some micro-businesses like these can easily make 20$ a day or 620$ a month or 7450$ a year, indicating a stronger consumerism.
View attachment 373719

View attachment 373720


Another similar example. Milk sellers were able to triple their gains from $500-$700 per month to $3200 per month just by being given cool equipment and joining a business cooperative.
View attachment 373721


And again, these are rural underprivileged women, not an “urban elite.” Even without cooling/storage they were already making far more than the official GDP per capita claims.


It also extends to Fishing as well, which i am sure people are completely unaware of how much the fishing industry has grown in recent decade from 2013-2018 it grew by 300% : Millions are employed directly or indirectly through it because fishermen sell it to stores, shops, restaurants , processors, exporter etc





From the above the report from 2019 it showed the average fisherman earned 470 dollars a month in 2018 and now they on average earn 15k$ to 20k$ a year from catches made on their small fishing boats
See this:
View attachment 373722


We have collected many such examples across sectors etc. That i will organize into post InshaAllah. This is what i was talking about before they don't look at direct income statements or base it from a consumer price index to measure real income per capita.

There is no way these examples can earn 1000-6000 USD a month with weak or poor consumer market economy as people like to claim.
Wild how in a country thats supposedly sub 1000 income, people who sell milk on the street make 6000$ a year, fishermen make 15000$ a year, and farmers make around 20000$ a year, you put it into better words than me with that service economy stuff but when you look into it putting the bad faith aside, theres absolutely no universe where somalia is currently as poor as sierra leone or liberia
 
@Idilinaa I think you guys might like this video. T The guys talks about rhe challenges india faces and that part of what led him to understand india's situation was that the dominance of IT in the service sector was based on foreign companies using india's labor and not actual Indian growth since there was no domestic market for these It services.

 
Somalia stats are cooked, 80% of the GDP Kulaha

What is the SNBS doing ? Theres no universe where they dont know this is happening
Wallahi I wonder about that too. Its possible that some of them realize this but its also possible that they've never questioned it. Its very easy when you have a certain worldview to not question your assumptions. I mean we've been talking about somalia's economy for years on this forum but until recently nobody ever thought to pause and fully think about the narrative
 
I've been coming to the conclusion for a while that due to somalia's unqiue situation and historical trajectory it's economy,society and culture need to be understood on its own terms.

A perfect example of this is how its pretty clear that while islam fundamentally transformed somali society it did not create the somali identity ands it very clear from our poetry and oral traditions that there remains a lot of continuity between our pre-islam and Islamic identites
 

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