Like I said in my 2nd post. Our security issue can be solved by increasing stakeholder value across the population.
Think of Somalia as a business and it's citizens as stakeholders.
If most the population had no stake in the business... i.e. no equity; then why would they care about increasing the value of the business?
If a sizable percentage of our population owned properties or had a career then there'd be no space for opportunist to come in to cause chaos for their own benefits.
The first steps we need to implement isn't an oil profits distribution law but instead laws that would
- Protect private property (US constitution article 5 & 14) asap through an amendment in the provisional constitution. The states currently can't decide on the final draft since they're fighting over state rights but a small amendment that protect private property should be feasible with some lobbying by investors (a truck load of khat will do).
- Creating a favorable environment for Somali investors/entrepreneurs through a fair and transparent taxation system. Warlords or traffic/border customs cops shouldn't be allowed to come up with new taxes on the spot. Make it high if needed but make it fair and realistic. Incentivize the economic behaviors we need for development through strategic taxation.
- Temporarily import a commercial law system that helps enforce best practices and removes bad actors from the market. Might seem crazy but building up everything from scratch could delay development by decades since you can't really have an efficient market unless you have battle tested rules of the game that everyone plays on. We also don't have enough lawyers and judiciary professionals within Somalia that dealt with these types of high level commercial cases. Hence, we'll need to import those diaspora or foreign expats who are familiar with commonwealth or US commercial laws. This would essentially be a plug and play legal system and we could be up and running within a year and smooth out most the wrinkles within 5. A indigenous legal system would literally take decades to form properly even if accelerated. Most took centuries...
- Provide loan guarantees for FDI investments on low risk essential projects. Loan guarantee can be creatively funded/insured through putting up a sukuk/bond that holds a 2nd lien on investors assets in return for a small fee. For example; a billion dollars railway project from Hargeisa to Berbera. Gov analyzes the project and deems it low risk after going through a transparent audit. They then guarantee 80% of the funding required for the project. The bank would then be more likely to finance the project since the original investors would've already paid a 20% down payment in most cases so there's very little risk to the lender. The government won't have to put up any money at all even if the project fails and in which case; the project is collateralized anyways so it isn't a total write off. Other investors would've insured the gov loan guarantee like a normal car insurance transaction. The gov pays them a certain fee every month and they would pay up on the rare occasion a project failed. The fees they get is risk adjusted and probably a lot more they would've gotten on the stock market.. the best part is not having to put up any money in most deals. As long as this becomes a transparent and properly regulated process this could create a bonanza in FDIs in Somalia since this deal would be a win win win and win for investors/project owners, lenders government/country and insurers.