Restoring Somalia

[Mozart]

Game changer: Will Turkey unlock potential oil bonanza for Somalia? | Opinion

In the last decade, Somalia has made remarkable progress on multiple fronts: good governance, security, the economy and the military system. Somalia is...

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Oil exploration won't create a major shift in Somalia. It will take at least 10 years and on a global scale, everyone is currently diversifying away from oil.

 

[C-Town]

Oil exploration won't create a major shift in Somalia. It will take at least 10 years and on a global scale, everyone is currently diversifying away from oil.

what will create a major shift?

 

[Mozart]

what will create a major shift?

Probably associating with the US. Somalia needs help from somewhere and siding with the gulf countries is the biggest mistake we could make. A natural leader is also important because cohesion amongst the different regions is essential if Somalia is to even resemble a nation.

 

[C-Town]

Probably associating with the US. Somalia needs help from somewhere and siding with the gulf countries is the biggest mistake we could make. A natural leader is also important because cohesion amongst the different regions is essential if Somalia is to even resemble a nation.

id rather have the turks than US

 

[C-Town]

Probably associating with the US. Somalia needs help from somewhere and siding with the gulf countries is the biggest mistake we could make. A natural leader is also important because cohesion amongst the different regions is essential if Somalia is to even resemble a nation.

The Somali coast has about 100 billion oil barrels
wont that make them rich in the near future or do we need other things

 

[Mozart]

The Somali coast has about 100 billion oil barrels
wont that make them rich in the near future or do we need other things

It would make a change but not at the level everyone wishes imo - It will probably just lead to more corruption (see Nigeria). Look at Saudi Arabia today ; All of the sports / concerts / policy changes are an attempt to move the economy away from Oil

 

[C-Town]

It would make a change but not at the level everyone wishes imo - It will probably just lead to more corruption (see Nigeria). Look at Saudi Arabia today ; All of the sports / concerts / policy changes are an attempt to move the economy away from Oil

so this whole oil plan is overrated

 

[Zakaria]

so this whole oil plan is overrated

I think we should forget about oil. We've missed the oil boom. Countries are moving away from oil and somalia can never compete with Russia and Saudi Arabia. It's cheaper to import oil than it is to find the oil; build the infrastructure and sell it. Look at venuzvela, large oil reserves but dirt poor.

 

[Juke]

Probably associating with the US. Somalia needs help from somewhere and siding with the gulf countries is the biggest mistake we could make. A natural leader is also important because cohesion amongst the different regions is essential if Somalia is to even resemble a nation.

The Americans (even China) would have a bigger presence in Somalia if they wanted, install their own regime, developed oil, etc.

They simply don't think it's worth it.

 

[Ras]

That's a spurious association imo. Focusing on the economy is what the current government have tried to do yet it's difficult to do well without an educated population and strict governance in which Somalia has neither. Al-Shabaab will just collect taxes from these businesses which will discourage them - security is paramount. Somalia was doing relatively well compared to other african nations yet qabilism was still rife so it's little to do with the economy.

Somalia is doing well relative to other african nations... that shouldn't be our benchmark and the reality is that that statement is incorrect.

Regarding your initial point about security... it's the age old chicken and egg problem.

What comes first... security or development?

You can't have long lasting security without plenty of opportunities around for those that would've joined those clan or terrorist militias as foot soldiers.

The reason they join these groups is because they have nothing to lose.

To your other point:

AS can tax whoever it wants but once those businesses get to a certain size AS will have more competition for it's tax money.

Sooner or later they'll be able to afford competent private security and not long after the government would have much more resources to protect the assets that bring in +90% of their revenue.

Somali politicians are currently lining up to sell our resources because in their mind the only cake around is bribe money from foreign interest or donor money they can steal.

However if there are thousands of domestic businesses making millions they'll have another larger cake to focus on.

Through that; we'll also get a new interest faction that will have a much higher influence than foreign powers within the country and that would guarantee stability.

In the west and Asia it isn't politicians or the military that guarantees stability... it's the self interest of businesses and those that own assets in the country.

What percentage of our population owns an asset in Somalia that they can't afford to lose?

That should answer your question on how to fix Somalia.

 

[OTF]

so this whole oil plan is overrated

Don't listen to him. The oil will create a major shift in Somalia. We shouldn't compare ourselves with developed countries like the gulf/Norway. Their economy is too large to still be dependent on oil that's why they want to diversify. Instead, we should take a look at Angola. Angola's gdb is at $115b. Crude petroleum makes up 95% of exports. They don't even refine it they literally sell it at it is. If Somalia could make a fraction of that it would be a game-changer. Even with corruption, we have small populations.

Exporting oil>Exporting nothing

 

[Ahmed321]

Have you guys ever thought of the way you could make Somalia a better place? Like step-by-step solutions for the problems that are facing us right now. Where do you think we should start? What actions have you taken personally that could better shape the country? I'm interested in what the new generation living abroad thinks about how to resolve the issue in their country. People always say the new generation would change things, they would come with new innovative ideas. They'd be more nationalistic and less reliant on qabils. They'd bring much needed skills and build the country (i hope). Let's hear what you guys think.

Good question. Somalia has a long waaay to go. one of the biggest problem we have is we're our own best enemy.

 

[Genesis]

Do you guys want my honest advice? Forget about Somalia, it's a hopeless place.

We live in the best countries in the world, just focus on getting a good job, earn great money and you can live a fantastic life anywhere on the planet, don't limit yourself to that hellhole

 

[Marcus]

Impin

Do you guys want my honest advice? Forget about Somalia, it's a hopeless place.

We live in the best countries in the world, just focus on getting a good job, earn great money and you can live a fantastic life anywhere on the planet, don't limit yourself to that hellhole

The plan is to earn enough so that I can live a comfy life in Somalia. There's no future in the west, look how quickly the LGBTQ thing switch from fringes to mainstream.

 

[Genesis]

Impin

The plan is to earn enough so that I can live a comfy life in Somalia. There's no future in the west, look how quickly the LGBTQ thing switch from fringes to mainstream.

So because some gay people are parading in the streets, you'd give up a comfortable life in world-class cities like London, Seattle, and Toronto?

 

[المهندس]

Target youth and poor people in your qabil. Go to tuulos and set up businesses for them show them what they are capable of doing. Build up enough supporters to create a small militia within your clan enclave. Repeat steps untill you are taken serious, then talk about the issues of extreme qabilism, they will listen once they see they are eating good without it.

Money talks

 

[المهندس]

So because some gay people are parading in the streets, you'd give up a comfortable life in world-class cities like London, Seattle, and Toronto?

You're thinking too short term , in terms of longevity for the safeguarding of your dignity and deen these cities are not the place to reside and start a family.

 

[Rooble44]

Qabilism is just a symptom of our real underlying problems... poverty and lack of opportunities for social mobility.

Focus on developing the economy over everything else.

Create laws that would make it just as easy as the US to start, run, grow a business and protect it from bad actors.

Fund skills training through whatever means available and do it strategically by hiring foreign expats to take on the roles you can't domestically develop yet.

If just 20% of our population is able to increase their productivity to $20/hr we'd have a 120 billion dollars GDP ...i.e. near the top 5 in Africa.

Our current GDP per hour worked is around $1 at the moment...

This doesn't take remittance into account so it's probably much lower.

I like what you're saying, carry on.

 

[Bashi]

Do you guys want my honest advice? Forget about Somalia, it's a hopeless place.

We live in the best countries in the world, just focus on getting a good job, earn great money and you can live a fantastic life anywhere on the planet, don't limit yourself to that hellhole

Youre not thinking about your country, only your immediate comfort. So what if you can live in other countries? You will always be an outsider, an immigrant or refugee or the offspring of one. What would you have to say for yourself when people ask where you are from and you shamingly mention your country. Wherever you go people of those countries will look down upon you, youre a sad existence to them. If you have children they will be bullied for being from the "hellhole". Even if youre rich materially its only surface comfort. Why cant you be someone who takes pride in their country? Who can say with dignity and pride, "im somalian" like your ancestors.

 

[Ras]

I like what you're saying, carry on.

Like I said in my 2nd post. Our security issue can be solved by increasing stakeholder value across the population.

Think of Somalia as a business and it's citizens as stakeholders.

If most the population had no stake in the business... i.e. no equity; then why would they care about increasing the value of the business?

If a sizable percentage of our population owned properties or had a career then there'd be no space for opportunist to come in to cause chaos for their own benefits.

The first steps we need to implement isn't an oil profits distribution law but instead laws that would

1. Protect private property (US constitution article 5 & 14) asap through an amendment in the provisional constitution. The states currently can't decide on the final draft since they're fighting over state rights but a small amendment that protect private property should be feasible with some lobbying by investors (a truck load of khat will do).
2. Creating a favorable environment for Somali investors/entrepreneurs through a fair and transparent taxation system. Warlords or traffic/border customs cops shouldn't be allowed to come up with new taxes on the spot. Make it high if needed but make it fair and realistic. Incentivize the economic behaviors we need for development through strategic taxation.
3. Temporarily import a commercial law system that helps enforce best practices and removes bad actors from the market. Might seem crazy but building up everything from scratch could delay development by decades since you can't really have an efficient market unless you have battle tested rules of the game that everyone plays on. We also don't have enough lawyers and judiciary professionals within Somalia that dealt with these types of high level commercial cases. Hence, we'll need to import those diaspora or foreign expats who are familiar with commonwealth or US commercial laws. This would essentially be a plug and play legal system and we could be up and running within a year and smooth out most the wrinkles within 5. A indigenous legal system would literally take decades to form properly even if accelerated. Most took centuries...
4. Provide loan guarantees for FDI investments on low risk essential projects. Loan guarantee can be creatively funded/insured through putting up a sukuk/bond that holds a 2nd lien on investors assets in return for a small fee. For example; a billion dollars railway project from Hargeisa to Berbera. Gov analyzes the project and deems it low risk after going through a transparent audit. They then guarantee 80% of the funding required for the project. The bank would then be more likely to finance the project since the original investors would've already paid a 20% down payment in most cases so there's very little risk to the lender. The government won't have to put up any money at all even if the project fails and in which case; the project is collateralized anyways so it isn't a total write off. Other investors would've insured the gov loan guarantee like a normal car insurance transaction. The gov pays them a certain fee every month and they would pay up on the rare occasion a project failed. The fees they get is risk adjusted and probably a lot more they would've gotten on the stock market.. the best part is not having to put up any money in most deals. As long as this becomes a transparent and properly regulated process this could create a bonanza in FDIs in Somalia since this deal would be a win win win and win for investors/project owners, lenders government/country and insurers.