The main issue is what happened in 91. The rebels destroyed everything including the military, every country in africa that experienced civil war still kept their military almost intact. We are the only fools who destroyed their own army, navy, airforce etc. If we still had even soviet era weapons we wouldn't be in this mess
Yup it was pretty much all sold or scrapped for parts to sell. Its been 30 years and only recently are seeing a strong central government.
We are also seeing some new weapons in the hands of Gorgor due to Turkish influence. The armoured trucks ,new weapons and better organisation will give us an edge.
Also i think if the FGS focuses on Alshabab held areas that aren't strongholds we can localize the violence. Galgaduud should be the next step for 2021 while slowly clearing shabelle from both sides.
By 2027 we should have 20k Turkish trained troops and 10-20K non Turkish trained troops. This will be enough to retake Somalia.
However if Somalia goes to a civil war again we are screwed.