Next Industrial Revolution: Can Somalia be a part of it?

Discussion in 'General' started by GeKo, Feb 19, 2018.

  1. GeKo

    GeKo

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    The global economy is in crisis.

    The exponential exhaustion of natural resources, declining productivity, slow growth, rising unemployment, and steep inequality, forces us to rethink our economic models.:yacadiim:

    Where do we go from here?:cosbyhmm:
    Jeremy Rifkin (social and economic theorist) lays out a road map to usher in a new economic system.

    A Third Industrial Revolution is unfolding with the convergence of three pivotal technologies: an ultra-fast 5G communication internet, a renewable energy internet, and a driverless mobility internet, all connected to the Internet of Things embedded across society and the environment. :leon:

    This 21st century smart digital infrastructure is giving rise to a radical new sharing economy that is transforming the way we manage, power and move economic life.


    In this economy, ordinary people will be able to take part in sharing data, electricity, ideas, and transportation. Those who help share, distribute and decentralize everything of value will reap the most benefits.:rejoice:

    He talks about how marginal costs of producing, transporting and powering goods and service will reach near zero. This will mean many goods/services will cost, next to nothing .Efficiency, productivity and living standards will significantly improve for millions.:whoo:



    Will Somalia and Africa as a whole be able to take part in this and benefit? (Listen at 1:31:00 of the video)

    We completely missed the first and second industrial revolution. :wow:

    As mentioned at 1:31:00 of the video, our biggest weakness can become our biggest strength. For example, the lack of banking infrastructure in Somalia has led to a rapid adoption of mobile money which would otherwise take years for adoption in more developed countries.:westbrookswag:

    Although I could also see that corporations that develop integrated IoT with robots and AI, there will be fast growth in developed countries. This could mean that majority of the benefits of this new high tech will happen in developed countries and will leave Africa to even more exploitation of it's resources. :tocry:

    Although I don't agree with everything he says, I think he's got a sense of where the future is headed. China and Europe are already implementing some of the ideas he discussed at a fast pace, so that's interesting. He's an advisor to both countries as well.

    Let's Discuss!:mybusiness:
     
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2018
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  2. GeKo

    GeKo

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    Some of the important points he discusses is summarised in this video as well. Alot of what he said in the vice doc, were things that are already happening and not just his theory.

     
  3. XamarCade

    XamarCade

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    In order for decentralization to work, u have to have the masses participate globally
     
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  4. RasCanjero-

    RasCanjero- Self imposed exile

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    Somalia can definitely be part of it.

    We actually don't have a choice but to become a leader in it if we want to hold our own against our resource rich neighbours.

    It only requires 0.1% of our population to be literate in the technologies needed and less than 1% to learn how to operate them.

    Most industries will be automated before the end of the next decade and we simply can't afford to take the development routes of China and East Asia.

    Even finding large oil reserves won't save us from the wrath of cheap energy and automation.

    First steps needed is to setup strong IP laws that protect entrepreneurs that want to start developing these technologies in Somalia.

    Don't look at machine learning and renewable energy generation tech as first world toys with applications in Somalia.

    We need those tools right now in Somalia if we want to stop importing diesel to power our businesses and intelligently organise our limited resources in agriculture and manufacturing.

    We don't have a hundred thousand engineers to meet all our needs so we have to make use of smart software and automation to make up for them.
     
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  5. GeKo

    GeKo

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    Oppressive regimes that try to limit communication and internet access will be left behind.

    Such as the case with Ethiopia, I have family in Ceelgula (a small town in Mudug) who have better access to basic internet than people in Addis Ababa.

    They use these internet cards, that give you access to basic internet for just $5 a month.

    As long as we have that basic freedom of allowing for the movement of goods, information and communication the masses will be able to participate.

    Isolationist countries that have too many restrictions, regulations and bureaucracies won't do well too.
     
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  6. GeKo

    GeKo

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    Very well put and inquisitive!

    I agree with everything you said, except IP laws.

    Intellectual property laws are failing at the moment, it's stifling growth and development in the west.

    Companies are buying up all these patents they don't even need as an arsenal to use when they get sued. They're spending millions on buying useless patents when they could be using that for more productive things. At the end of it all, the idea gets copied and its being made in factories all over China.

    The inventor of hoverboards made a kickstarter and described his invention in a video. By the time he finished developing and brought it to the market, there were already hundreds of copycats of his invention on the market.

    With the sharing economy, much of everything is open sourced. It's already happening with some of the tech giants like Microsoft and with cities in China like Shenzhen. Shenzhen is now known as the Silicon Valley of Hardware and one of the best places to start a startup.

    Check out this doc on Shenzhen.


    We now can copy open source code , improve on them, trade our creativity and make new exciting things. We can 3D print all types of free shared blueprints and make life better for all.
     
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2018
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  7. RasCanjero-

    RasCanjero- Self imposed exile

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    Current IP laws are failing because of IP squatters.

    That's why we don't have flying cars or safer nuclear energy by now.

    No one is willing to put the time into inventing anything when some lawyer filled the general concept of your idea a decade back.

    IP laws in the US and around the world might not get fixed tomorrow but Somalia is a sovereign country ( :browtf: one day) and we decide our laws just like how China did.
     
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  8. Suárez

    Suárez Every man is a Shepard to his people.

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    I am asking my self how do we make income tax free country.

    If our people are poor but have shaaqo income tax is a thing we need to tackle.
     
  9. World

    World VIP

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    There won’t be a third industrial revolution. We haven’t even migrated the effects the first has done on our ecosystem. Growth for renewable energy has slowed down. Let’s see if we make it past this century before we make some wild futurology utopia assumptions.
     
  10. EDsomali

    EDsomali

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    No chance of Somalia being a part of the next industrial revolution. We can even unite under one president let alone join the world in the AI/ Renewable energy future. Somalia's future economic output is bleak to put it bluntly, it would be an achievement if we were able to manufacture something easy like pens in the near future.
     
  11. BetterAkhlaq

    BetterAkhlaq Snicker la'an

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    ^^ Why is this guy so anti somalia? Subhanallah, keep being self hating.
     
  12. GeKo

    GeKo

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    In the political realm, things are shaky but once there's a complete army and finances under control each regional president will work with the president. They'll only obey the one that's payrolling them and its not the president atm. The past decade, regional presidents have been working more and more closer with the Federal Presidents and I see more cooperation as things improve.

    Most countries import simple things like pens. If they can't produce it at a competitive price then it's better to import it.

    The growth China has experienced the past decade is mainly because of its service industry and consumer market growing.

    The implementation of IoT connected grids of communication, transportation and logistics in Somalia may be easier because of the lack of existing infrastructure. We could make systems more streamlined and improve their efficiency which could mean even faster growth of our economy.

    Nothing is impossible; South Korea, China, Malaysia, and much of the Gulf Arab ( I know oil money but still) have grown very fast the past 50 years. With this next industrial revolution, perhaps we'll be able to leapfrog from the limitations of the past and learn from their mistakes as well.
     
  13. buule

    buule

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    somalia has between 110 to 400 billion barrels of oil. so yh the future is bright and somalia can be part of this revolution.
     
  14. EDsomali

    EDsomali

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    Walahi i like that you have a positive outlook in Somalia. However, the problem with Somalia is our politics and that hinders our economic situation. We produce nothing, our exports consist mainly of livestock which is amazing considering we live in a desert. Without political stability which seems impossible Somalia may never grow economically and develop strong industries. If you look at Japan's rapid growth post WW2 when they were bombed into oblivion, a lot of it stemmed from an effective government strategy which aided local producers to compete internationally, there implementation of a strategic trade strategy was key into transitioning into a developed economy. Unfortunately , even though the optimistic economist in me wants Somalia to develop , i see this as very unlikely.
     
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  15. EDsomali

    EDsomali

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    I'm not self hating lol i would love for Somalia to be developed and a stable nation. But you have to be realistic sometimes.
     
  16. GeKo

    GeKo

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    These aren't assumptions, if you watched the doc he's talking about examples that are happening around the world.

    At 40min, he talks about solar energy and at 42min he says Berkley Labs have just been able to make solar go down to 2.8 cents a KWh, compare that to Somalia's $1 KWh. Solar's price has fallen drastically over the past 5 years alone, it's crazy.

    As the prices of making solar and wind turbines fall, Somalia could be well positioned to switch to renewables. Look at the amount of Sun and wind that falls on Somalia. Every city,town and village in Somalia can have microgrids that power their neighbourhoods.

    solar africa.jpg
    wind africa.jpg
    https://www.sciencealert.com/solar-power-is-now-the-cheapest-energy-in-the-world
     
  17. Midas Touch

    Midas Touch

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    @GeKo We have to talk about the reality on the ground, what you posted is very interesting but what you are alluding to is almost impossible, when mentioning a country such as Somalia because there is almost none existent infrastructure, let me give you a simple perspective the 1st rail way build in America was in February 28, 1827, do you see how far behind Somali's are ?
     
  18. GeKo

    GeKo

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    You're talking about those inefficient steam engines they made back then. America, is bogged down and still stuck in the previous industries. They have an ineffiecient congress that works for the interest of corporations. Many countries were nothing 40 years ago, and are big players today.

    Tell me 10 years ago, who would've thought a country like Somalia would become a cashless society before the US. Today Somalis are paying for goods and services all with their mobile phones. People in small towns in Somalia have access to basic internet for just $5 a month. 6 of the fastest growing economies are located in Africa. Tell me what the Gulf Arab countries looked like just 50 years ago, all desert and barely any development. I'm not saying, we'll turn around and change completely in 20 years but I can see modest development into this in the next 50 years if we get things right.

    The next 20 years, we'll be fixing up gov't institutions and developing basic infrastructure as we've been doing.
     
  19. RasCanjero-

    RasCanjero- Self imposed exile

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    You either tax businesses, purchases or workers.

    If you don't want tax because it's against our deen then you'll have to raise government revenues by creating public companies.

    Good luck in trying to out-compete private companies
    Most of it can't be economically extracted if there is any.

    Really dislike this type of apathetic mindset.

    Oil takes at least a decade to extract and by that time batteries will end up more cost effective.

    Old internal combustion engines take a lot of resources to build and maintain while electric vehicles will be cheaper to build and less moving parts to replace.

    Don't rely on a future lottery win that will lead us to Saudi level revenues.

    If we had trillions of dollars of oil then big oil would've made sure Somalia was stable regardless of the costs. Either develop your own economy or stay dreaming in your mudhuts.
     
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  20. GeKo

    GeKo

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    I understand what you mean about the oil, those that argue that Somalia's resources will lift us out of poverty, it's too simplistic.

    I can see the world, slowly losing demand for oil but we still have another 40 years before demand drops too low.

    We do have a lot of natural gas, uranium, tin, and gold though, but I don't like thinking of them as our jackpot. I see them more as a supplement to developing Somalia's infrastructure and transforming our economy.
     
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