kkkk, first of all the only thing that can sabotage 1m1v is if all or most of the 9 political associations refuse to participate, even Diyaano wants it, so unless that changes and all of a sudden they become anti 1m1v nothing can stop the train.
Madaxweyne Siciid Deni ayaa shaqada ka cayriyay Wasiir kuxigeenkii xanaanada xoolaha Abdiwali Seed iyo wasiiru-dawlihii madaxtooyada
- Thread starter bidenkulaha
- Start date
bidenkulaha
GalYare
Yes good luck having elections while Faroole, Diyaano, AJ militias will declare major cities no go zones.
If you noticed I’m aware they need Diyaano support as him and AJ can together block Bari from participating in elections. Which is why there’s already talks of AJ reaching out
Bro, why hasn't Diyaano been assassinated yet?? This nigga is an existential threat to PL SMH
you can wish anything you want, lets wait for 3 months and see how 1m1v progresses.
Guys do Aaran Jaan actually exist, sounds like a shadowy cult. Apart from the Farole family, who else is part of AJ? Is it only Ciise Mohamud?
This guy @bidenkulaha gets all his PL related information from Amiin Guuleed who I've frequently used as a source on this site and now thinks he's well acquainted with PL politics kkkk.
bidenkulaha
GalYare
I used to read his stuff with the elections cos he's UPD, forgot about him since cos Deni wasn't a potential OPs. But it was @warside that actually deserves the credit
im learning a lot more about PL politics, y'all keep a lot of interesting threads from us but I've got it on lock now dw
So Deni is trying to break the MS power sharing in PL where the pass the presidency to each other like a ball. I admit this man got huge balls scraping a system in place since 98 
hopefully he doesn’t fold
hopefully he doesn’t foldEither the corrupt system currently in place will unseat Deni or he will go the way of the ballot if he manages to succeed in finishing the democratization process. No outside groups will have any bearing on who becomes the next President.
Aaran Jaan will be a tough nut to crack since they have major influence over Puntland. They have now split into two factions(Pro-Mohamud Shido and Pro-Deni) with a 3rd possibly emerging under the current finance minister Hassan Shire Abgaal. The latter is a snake waiting to come out from hiding when the time is rest. He has staffed many of his supporters throughout the finance ministry and in the military.
Aaran Jaan will be a tough nut to crack since they have major influence over Puntland. They have now split into two factions(Pro-Mohamud Shido and Pro-Deni) with a 3rd possibly emerging under the current finance minister Hassan Shire Abgaal. The latter is a snake waiting to come out from hiding when the time is rest. He has staffed many of his supporters throughout the finance ministry and in the military.
bidenkulaha
GalYare
Deni the type to enlist outside help if situation becomes dire, just an impression I've got. Today's speech was a complete mess (criticising beesha calaamka, saying he won't be hostage to a mafia, going on about PL being different to other states, rumoured SL operations). He will go to war for the 1m1v election. Even if he completely loses Qardho and Bosaso. He has no route to Villa Somalia if he loses PL presidency. His political career is at stake.
Let's see what position Hassan Sheikh is in a year from now. This is the period usually when opposition groups start to emerge against the president. He will have many people against him the way things are going now with him only employing UPD members in his government.
You're right on Deni's political career hinging on competing 1M1V. He doesn't necessarily have to win IMO but if he oversees its completion then that would give him the lifeline he needs to make another run at either PL or FGS presidency.
Hassan Shiekh was a conciliatory candidate for many different factions, he did not emerge as president due to the electioneering of beesha dhexe of Galmuran. I will return to this thread when the inevitable infighting happens between Damul Jadiid and Daljir. Remember this is a marriage of convenience and when the next federal election season is near you will see one faction turn on the other. This is the nature of 68 politics.
bidenkulaha
GalYare
For sure, HSM doesn't have much of a political base in this current Parliament. Hence why he only had 50 or so votes in the first round.
But the same MPs are not getting voting in the election. I bet just like the last election, there'll be a turnover over 60-70% of MPs. He will have more UPD victories with a bigger financial purse, ability to control selections of supportive FMS's. His goal by 2027 should be similar to what Farmaajo nearly accomplished but adding a successful Presidency to it and splitting the PL and JL so he isn't faced with a strong challenger like Deni was to Farmaajo. I would probably recommend a political marriage between Madoobe and HSM. Changes to leadership in GM, HS, KG. And make sure Hashi retires or has no influence over SL selections.
A lot of this depends on how good of a Presidency he runs. He must defeat Shabaab and things will become a lot easier. HSM won't face similar Mudulood opposition in his first time, he should create Banadir state. HG won't be an issue. Therefore that's Xamar tamed unlike in Farmaajo's term. I personally see KG as the biggest issue. HSM will lose a significant amount of D&M support if he doesn't remove LG. LG issue won't be an easy one to solve unless he dumps Egypt for Ethiopia. The only option I see is Barawe elections once LS is fully liberated and economic sanctions.
If only I could just first forward a year
Amiin Guuleed even though he's anti Deni but he also hates Aaran jaan, so sometimes he exposes AJ tactics, lately there were reports from Geylan media and others mentioning how Deni removed a company that was bringing Khat to PL and replace them with a company belonging to his family, turns out that Deni is purging this AJ company so they started the smear campaign as Amiin put it, so even though he exaggerates and puts a negative spin on anything related to Deni and his gov but at least he's neutral when it comes to Deni and Aaran Jaan squabble.
Hamzza
VIP
Reasons why the election Is not possible according to Faroole:
1. Droughts.
2. Borders of the district's are not determined.
3. Maxkamada sare.
4. Corrupt electoral commission.
What an old senile bat. Put this clown in a nursing home.
bidenkulaha
GalYare
Faroole should back Huruuse for President
I wouldn't mind if Faroole came back, imagine that.
Hamzza
VIP
'You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain'
Faroole has became little shaytan... we used to love him when dissing Mogadishu politicians.
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