Kacaan 2.0

DR OSMAN

AF NAAREED
VIP
HSM Irir constitution will be passed on Wednesday. That will then usher in a new era, a Kacaan 2.0 if you like. The first 30 years of Somalia's history was led by MJ and MX, the following 30 years was chaos and stalemate, the next 30 years will be led by Hawiye.

This is the reality on the ground. Ogaden elites are onboard with this and have come to an agreement with the Hawiye to share the pie and keep MJ and MX out for good or bad. Why is Ogaden doing this? My thoughts are they see the trajectory and are simply joining the winning side. Darod effectively excluded us from the central government (Farmajo sacked every single Ogaden guy except a handful) whereas the Hawiye are more than willing to work with us. But to help them centralise the country in return? I have my reservations but time will tell. There are deep rifts between the Hawiye and particularly Abgaal and HG. Once they consolidate power, I am certain they will start fighting for the top seat amongst themselves and that's where Ogaden will have their chance to shine.

Anyway, come Wednesday a new era will begin. MOD will be replaced by AHO (Ab-Hg-Og).

Your such a duli I know what your doing and trying to mimick civilian majerten era govt by having irir rotate power inside itself such as aden adde and egal rotate while mj spot is reserved. He wants hg iyo abgal rotate while ogaden spot is reserved. Are u going to make ogaden women trojans for you and keep hawiye civilized as no hawiye was allowed near power if he didn't have mj relations.

I'm sick of Ogaden backstabbing us as we stood by your JL as your largest supporter when hawiye were trying to destroy it. U do know switching kastumo alliances means eventually all warring sides will say your not in anyone benefit and sideline you into eternity because mature politicians know the importance of holding deals increases your political profile not switching kastumos for 30 year short term interests. Some western countries boast of holding deals as long as 300 years showing political maturity.
 
HSM Irir constitution will be passed on Wednesday. That will then usher in a new era, a Kacaan 2.0 if you like. The first 30 years of Somalia's history was led by MJ and MX, the following 30 years was chaos and stalemate, the next 30 years will be led by Hawiye.

This is the reality on the ground. Ogaden elites are onboard with this and have come to an agreement with the Hawiye to share the pie and keep MJ and MX out for good or bad. Why is Ogaden doing this? My thoughts are they see the trajectory and are simply joining the winning side. Darod effectively excluded us from the central government (Farmajo sacked every single Ogaden guy except a handful) whereas the Hawiye are more than willing to work with us. But to help them centralise the country in return? I have my reservations but time will tell. There are deep rifts between the Hawiye and particularly Abgaal and HG. Once they consolidate power, I am certain they will start fighting for the top seat amongst themselves and that's where Ogaden will have their chance to shine.

Anyway, come Wednesday a new era will begin. MOD will be replaced by AHO (Ab-Hg-Og).
History repeats itself:dead:
018D0106-353E-433A-8253-15A3BD53BB44.jpeg
 

DR OSMAN

AF NAAREED
VIP
Nothing will change. Buch of bloated old men beating their chest.

More stalemate politics predictions? That's why I tell puntites just forget rushing this federation thing have a cooling off period for 99 years with a distinct treaty status like Hong Kong did with China, while we can let the hawiyes and their centralism supporters do their own thing and for every 25 years in the 99 year treaty we will hold a pl and somalia federation discussion and see if they reached the milestone we demand.


Mark.my words hawiye centralism.wont even last one presidential term let alone 21 years like siyad did as siyad had the strongest army in Africa backing him.and even he couldn't hold out for more then 21 years. A weak hawiye post 91 trying to be a siyad barre makes any political analyst just laugh at their stupidity.

I just want my region disconnected and doing its own thing not entertain their stalemate politics.
 
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Bazed

Tired.
VIP
More stalemate politics predictions? That's why I tell puntites just forget rushing this federation thing have a cooling off period for 99 years with a distinct treaty status like Hong Kong did with China, while we can let the hawiyes and their centralism supporters do their own thing and for every 25 years in the 99 year treaty we will hold a pl and somalia federation discussion and see if they reached the milestone we demand.


Mark.my words hawiye centralism.wont even last one presidential term let alone 21 years like siyad did as siyad had the strongest army in Africa backing him.and even he couldn't hold out for more then 21 years. A weak hawiye post 91 trying to be a siyad barre makes any political analyst just laugh at their stupidity.

I just want my region disconnected and doing its own thing not entertain their stalemate politics.
If Puntland wants it can ignore any constitution changes till they feel comfortable to negotiate. I think this process is important but the time frame HSM is attempting is far to short. There are key areas that Puntland has issue with and those should be negotiate or at the very least they should find points that they agree on.
 

World

VIP
Hawiye have $1 billion budget, no arms embargo, US air support yet they are incapable of defeating a few thousand terrorists wearing flip flops in the flat waterless plains of galmudug. Al Shabab are gaining back all the land they lost and are attacking next to Mogadishu.

You’re talking about Hawiye centralising the country when they are incapable of even controlling their land. Talk about misplaced priorities.

HSM can spend all his time trying to be a nepotistic dictator and centralising the country, but the reality on the ground means that no elections will even take place in Abgaal lands, let alone outside of it.

He can keep wasting his time and resources, but all he’s doing is ensuring that the FGS remains a permanent Mogadishu city state on the verge of Al Shabab conquest.
 
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HSM is like the head of bunch of prisoners in the south, who are fed, protected by the Halane mafia. He's a prisoner himself and can't refuse orders from the west. A dameer protected by Amisom and watched over by the West will never reach the status of the Kacaan. Farmajo tried to extend his term and we all saw how the white man threatened to cut the aid if an election is not done in certain date.
 

TekNiKo

“I am an empathic and emotionally-aware person.
VIP
Your such a duli I know what your doing and trying to mimick civilian majerten era govt by having irir rotate power inside itself such as aden adde and egal rotate while mj spot is reserved. He wants hg iyo abgal rotate while ogaden spot is reserved. Are u going to make ogaden women trojans for you and keep hawiye civilized as no hawiye was allowed near power if he didn't have mj relations.

I'm sick of Ogaden backstabbing us as we stood by your JL as your largest supporter when hawiye were trying to destroy it. U do know switching kastumo alliances means eventually all warring sides will say your not in anyone benefit and sideline you into eternity because mature politicians know the importance of holding deals increases your political profile not switching kastumos for 30 year short term interests. Some western countries boast of holding deals as long as 300 years showing political maturity.
Caasho Caydiid bilaash looma bixin, I refuse to believe these Qoti assimilators are Somali
 
How ironic. Hawiye took down the kacaan because they were against dictatorship.

And now your telling me they want to create their own dictatorship. The reality is it will have the same demise as the kacaan.
That's one way to look at it. Another way is when the state was unitary and central for 30 years Darood led it and enjoyed all perks and benefits, driving it to the ground. But when it's Hawiye turn's to rule they had no qualms using the nuclear option to shove federalism down Hawiye's throat (Ethiopian invasion)

Darood basically had their cake and ate it twice. They enjoyed presiding over a ruthless central system for much of the modern Somali history and then when it's another clan's turn they put their hands up saying we won't accept being rulled by another clan and forcing Somalia to turn federal. The Darood more or less shaped Somalia's politics for the past 60 years to suite their own wants and needs.
 

World

VIP
That's one way to look at it. Another way is when the state was unitary and central for 30 years Darood led it and enjoyed all perks and benefits, driving it to the ground. But when it's Hawiye turn's to rule they had no qualms using the nuclear option to shove federalism down Hawiye's throat (Ethiopian invasion)

Darood basically had their cake and ate it twice. They enjoyed presiding over a ruthless central system for much of the modern Somali history and then when it's another clan's turn they put their hands up saying we won't accept being rulled by another clan and forcing Somalia to turn federal. The Darood more or less shaped Somalia's politics for the past 60 years to suite their own wants and needs.
They could have had their turn if they didn't chimp out on each other and everyone else, you cant be a state when you're making clans pay tax if their animals want to use river water.
 
If I was Hawiye I'd do the same. I'd ignore Darood background noise and centerlize the state by any means necessary. Either they follow the program or declare session, which makes them no different to the Somaliland they clowned for 30 years lol 😂
 
That's one way to look at it. Another way is when the state was unitary and central for 30 years Darood led it and enjoyed all perks and benefits, driving it to the ground. But when it's Hawiye turn's to rule they had no qualms using the nuclear option to shove federalism down Hawiye's throat (Ethiopian invasion)

Darood basically had their cake and ate it twice. They enjoyed presiding over a ruthless central system for much of the modern Somali history and then when it's another clan's turn they put their hands up saying we won't accept being rulled by another clan and forcing Somalia to turn federal. The Darood more or less shaped Somalia's politics for the past 60 years to suite their own wants and needs.
The only daarood to truly benefit from federalism are majeerteen and we didn’t gain shit from the kacaan
 

cow

VIP
Comparing a bunker government to the kacaan. Then saying ogadeen is a equal partner with abgaal or HG is very laughable.
 

Bahal

ʜᴀᴄᴋᴇᴅ ᴍᴇᴍʙᴇʀ
VIP
That's one way to look at it. Another way is when the state was unitary and central for 30 years Darood led it and enjoyed all perks and benefits, driving it to the ground. But when it's Hawiye turn's to rule they had no qualms using the nuclear option to shove federalism down Hawiye's throat (Ethiopian invasion)

Problem is, that should've happened in 1991 not 2024.

Sure I'd be a second class citizen, but at least I wouldn't be stateless.

:meleshame:
 

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