Kacaan 2.0

[Abaq]

HSM Irir constitution will be passed on Wednesday. That will then usher in a new era, a Kacaan 2.0 if you like. The first 30 years of Somalia's history was led by MJ and MX, the following 30 years was chaos and stalemate, the next 30 years will be led by Hawiye.

This is the reality on the ground. Ogaden elites are onboard with this and have come to an agreement with the Hawiye to share the pie and keep MJ and MX out for good or bad. Why is Ogaden doing this? My thoughts are they see the trajectory and are simply joining the winning side. Darod effectively excluded us from the central government (Farmajo sacked every single Ogaden guy except a handful) whereas the Hawiye are more than willing to work with us. But to help them centralise the country in return? I have my reservations but time will tell. There are deep rifts between the Hawiye and particularly Abgaal and HG. Once they consolidate power, I am certain they will start fighting for the top seat amongst themselves and that's where Ogaden will have their chance to shine.

Anyway, come Wednesday a new era will begin. MOD will be replaced by AHO (Ab-Hg-Og).

 

[Wonyluvr]

What’s MOD

 

[Hilmaam]

Who is to say fgs won’t play marehan and Ogaden against each other. Jubbaland is not in position of strength i think you guys playing dangerous game signing everything

 

[Diini23]

What’s MOD

Marexan Ogaden dhulbahante political alliance in the Kacaan era I believe

 

[Wonyluvr]

Marexan Ogaden dhulbahante political alliance in the Kacaan era I believe

Against barre right?

 

[Diini23]

Against barre right?

No they were with barre

 

[Wonyluvr]

No they were with barre

Oh thanks for the information

 

[JamalFarah]

People overestimate HSM's power by a wide margin. He enjoys strong international support, which is why he probably feels strong enough to attempt this constitutional gambit. However, on the ground and in terms of military strength, he's as weak as every other president before him. He needs to negotiate deals with FMS leaders to get their cooperation.

Here are the most likely scenarios:

1. He successfully passes the constitution, and JL, GM, HS, and SWS recognize it, likely due to bribery or alliances at the top levels. PL rejects it. However, he lacks the means to enforce it and doesn't really attempt to do so. Cold relationships continue between the FGS-PL.
2. His bluff gets called, both "sides" get something, a watered down version where the FGS has to choose which slice of the pie they want and which ones they have to give up on.
3. The least likely scenario, but often discussed here, is either the FMS or the FGS having a military conflict with each other, or even seceding. This is highly improbable. Internationally, whoever initiates violence would be seen as at fault. No one desires a second collapse of the Somali state. Moreover, Ethiopia is eager to expand its borders into Somalia and has been deterred only by the unlikely coalition of states supporting Somalia led by HSM. If the state collapses, this deterrent disappears.

 

[Wonyluvr]

Madoobe is piput of Caghjar, who is connected ismaciil Cumar Geele. There is no such thing as Ogaden. It's a donkey with big feet, ready to be loaded by Dir, didn't I always say Madoobe is run by rer Isaaq Cumar Jees who is Dir.

wdym

 

[El Nino]

Who is to say fgs won’t play marehan and Ogaden against each other. Jubbaland is not in position of strength i think you guys playing dangerous game signing everything

OGs have power in Kenya where many somali businessmen have invested a lot. Hsm gov ushered us to join EAC to ease business and solidify ties between the rest of East Africa. There has been clearly some backdoor deals between Hawiyes and Ogadens.

 

[Magan Joseph]

wdym

Ignore him Miss Wacbuudhan he wanted to turn this thread into qashin by commenting inappropriate statements and he feels intimidated by it simply because it maybe telling the truth

 

[Garaad Hirabu]

Culusow bigest supporters are Dir, Madoobe Al shabab fighters are Somaliland and Ciise Mohamud Majerteen.

 

[Wonyluvr]

Ignore him Miss Wacbuudhan he wanted to turn this thread into qashin by commenting inappropriate statements and he feels intimidated by it simply because it maybe telling the truth

Wait I kind of LOVE that Miss Wacbuudhan had a nice ring to it.That’s my name now

I don’t what he means by there’s no such thing as Ogadens like wtf is wrong with him

 

[Wonyluvr]

Culusow bigest supporters are Dir, Madoobe Al shabab fighters are Somaliland and Ciise Mohamud Majerteen.

What are you on about seriously

 

[𐒁𐒚𐒒𐒂𐒘𐒂𐒗 𐒎𐒚𐒗𐒗𐒒]

Centralism means, there will be no Ogaden led Jubbaland anymore. Instead some man sitting in Villa Somalia (probably a relative of HSM), will appoint your Governors, Mayors, hell, even tell you how many pencils you can order for a local school.

 

[Wonyluvr]

Centralism means, there will be no Ogaden led Jubbaland anymore. Instead some man sitting in Villa Somalia (probably a relative of HSM), will appoint your Governors, Mayors, hell, even tell you how many pencils you can order for a local school.

Would his nepotism work with me?????

 

[𐒁𐒚𐒒𐒂𐒘𐒂𐒗 𐒎𐒚𐒗𐒗𐒒]

Would his nepotism work with me?????

I don't know sis, you may be fine, I hear HSM is good for Mogadishu. It's the rest of us, he is hellbent on destroying.

 

[Wonyluvr]

I don't know sis, you may be fine, I hear HSM is good for Mogadishu. It's the rest of us, he is hellbent on destroying.

would I be a great mayor

 

[𐒁𐒚𐒒𐒂𐒘𐒂𐒗 𐒎𐒚𐒗𐒗𐒒]

would I be a great mayor

The best! You are too pure for this filthy world of Somali politics. Do yourself a favour, and ignore this entire section.

 

[Wonyluvr]

The best! You are too pure for this filthy world of Somali politics. Do yourself a favour, and ignore this entire section.

I can’t help it abayo .



it stares me in the face


Somali politics is wild honestly that’s why I don’t dive too deep