How will TPLF return affect Somali politics?

TekNiKo

β€œI am an empathic and emotionally-aware person.
VIP
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They will back and for revenge. Gabre and co will welcome back all FGS states and Ethiopian interference will return, The masterminds of federalism have returned.

The winners:

Axmed Madoobe
Abdi Iley
Saciid Deni
Madasha Musharixiinta
Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jamacaah
Somaliland
Dam Jadiid

The losers:

Laftagareen
Qoor Qoor
Cali Guudlaawe
Farmaajo
ONLF
 
Tigrayans already enslaved and decimated Somalis, they never awarded us meaningful positions at the federal level. Nothing will change when they come back.


At the federal level Somalis have never had this extent of representation before. It would make sense to fight for Abiye or outright demand secession. Nothing is waiting for us with TPLF.
 
Farmaajo wont really lose big, he was already in cahoots with TPLF when they were in power. I dont think too much would change in Somalia.
And i think there's a good chance the TPLF if they ever take the capital will move towards secession and allow other states a referendum.
 

reer

BANTUWEYNE
VIP
Tigrayans already enslaved and decimated Somalis, they never awarded us meaningful positions at the federal level. Nothing will change when they come back.


At the federal level Somalis have never had this extent of representation before. It would make sense to fight for Abiye or outright demand secession. Nothing is waiting for us with TPLF.
you should note that abiye/amhara are not as strong as meles was. so they have no choice but to tone down their hostile stance. a weak abiye>>strong abiye. :manny:
 

repo

Recess
VIP
A lot of you appear to be shaking in your boots at their possible return. It's a sad sight to see. TPLF shouldn't even be able to take on the Ogaden region let alone Somalia.
 

Sheikh Kulkuli

Staff Member
Tigrayans already enslaved and decimated Somalis, they never awarded us meaningful positions at the federal level. Nothing will change when they come back.


At the federal level Somalis have never had this extent of representation before. It would make sense to fight for Abiye or outright demand secession. Nothing is waiting for us with TPLF.
Are you mustafa cagjar? You want to die to repeal federalism?
 

TekNiKo

β€œI am an empathic and emotionally-aware person.
VIP
Farmaajo wont really lose big, he was already in cahoots with TPLF when they were in power. I dont think too much would change in Somalia.
And i think there's a good chance the TPLF if they ever take the capital will move towards secession and allow other states a referendum.
Farmaajo was only successful because constant TPLF meddling and undermining was not present during his tenure. He handed over Qalbidhagax to TPLF only for them to lose power a few months later. You see the power and influence of TPLF within the 6 months of Farmaajo first year?

They will definitely be funding their old allies and the winners will be federalism. Pro Farmaajo candidates may fall into their spell also.

Dont forget Kenya also had a defense pact with TPLF and will be elated to have their former buddies back in power. They hated Abby cause he reversed Ethio meddling.
 

TekNiKo

β€œI am an empathic and emotionally-aware person.
VIP
A lot of you appear to be shaking in your boots at their possible return. It's a sad sight to see. TPLF shouldn't even be able to take on the Ogaden region let alone Somalia.
Why not? I dont think TPLF will secede they have tasted power before and ruled for 30 years. They definitely will not relinquish this golden opportunity
 
Farmaajo was only successful because constant TPLF meddling and undermining was not present during his tenure. He handed over Qalbidhagax to TPLF only for them to lose power a few months later. You see the power and influence of TPLF within the 6 months of Farmaajo first year?

They will definitely be funding their old allies and the winners will be federalism. Pro Farmaajo candidates may fall into their spell also.

Dont forget Kenya also had a defense pact with TPLF and will be elated to have their former buddies back in power. They hated Abby cause he reversed Ethio meddling.
It wont be like in 1991 when the west was happy to see the junta collapse, the tigray are only seen as a temporary ally by some Ethiopians at best, whereas before they had the support of much of the country. Right now, most of the country consider their return to rule to be a worse alternative to Abiy, and the Amhara will especially be fighting to the bitter end to prevent their returm. The oromo will be clinging to their guns, wary of Tigray intentions, and the Tigray will be aware of that. And the west naturally will oppose any moves to cause the collapse of the regime and wont support the them if they do. And this time Eritrea will likely commit to a full fledged invention if they entertain that notion too. Because TPLF returning to power is literally the worse case scenario for Afwerki. I question whether they can take the capital without atleast very heavy losses, and also conquer the country piecemeal and hold it whilst also dealing with the Eritrean threat. The alternative which is defeating the regime, securing a referendum for themselves and not antagonizing the OLA is their best option imo.
 
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They will back and for revenge. Gabre and co will welcome back all FGS states and Ethiopian interference will return, The masterminds of federalism have returned.

The winners:

Axmed Madoobe
Abdi Iley
Saciid Deni
Madasha Musharixiinta
Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jamacaah
Somaliland
Dam Jadiid

The losers:

Laftagareen
Qoor Qoor
Cali Guudlaawe
Farmaajo
ONLF
It’s going to be a disaster wallahi. TPLF thugs need to be massacred and exterminated. Hopefully this war drags on and they eventually collapse but Abiy might be a better alternative, and God knows best.
 

HiraanBorn

Generalfeldmarschall von CadCads
It’s going to be a disaster wallahi. TPLF thugs need to be massacred and exterminated. Hopefully this war drags on and they eventually collapse but Abiy might be a better alternative, and God knows best.
It's hard to eliminate a battle-hardened expert guerrilla force that is highly determined for vengeance. Abiy has got hard times coming his way, let's see how he deals with it.
 
you should note that abiye/amhara are not as strong as meles was. so they have no choice but to tone down their hostile stance. a weak abiye>>strong abiye. :manny:

A weak Abiye is about to be run over by TPLF. Once they comeback the Tigrayans will reopen Ogaden Jail and unleash Liyu Police on Nomads.


You don't even register for TPLF they see you as disposable tissue, a filth stuck on the bottom of Ethiopia's boots.
 
Yes, let them destroy each other and then we make our move of course.

It is clear TPLF got the upper hand and it's only a matter of time before they reach Addis or cut the A1 road in Afar region.



TPLF will reach Addis by December. If you wait till then, it's already too late.
 

HiraanBorn

Generalfeldmarschall von CadCads
It is clear TPLF got the upper hand and it's only a matter of time before they reach Addis or cut the A1 road in Afar region.



TPLF will reach Addis by December. If you wait till then, it's already too late.
If that's the case what's the point of discussing this? Ogadeni Somalis will be in the same position they have always been in, under the Ethiopian government.
 
A weak Abiye is about to be run over by TPLF. Once they comeback the Tigrayans will reopen Ogaden Jail and unleash Liyu Police on Nomads.


You don't even register for TPLF they see you as disposable tissue, a filth stuck on the bottom of Ethiopia's boots.
What a dumb statement you just wrote lol

Warya TPLF doesn't have the power or the will to return to power they could occupy Addis Ababa and overthrew the govt but can't rule multiethnic nation alone without meaningful allies so what's going to happen when they take the capital is a new national dialogue that would include every ethnic groups to discuss the future of Ethiopia to either continue existing on a new political framework agreed upon by all parties in the table or for Ethiopia to disintegrate and never exist only in the history books.
 
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