ANALYSIS How much of Jubaland's Agricultural GDP is generated by nomads vs farmers?

[Burqad]

That is not a real census my brotha.

How do I know that gedo has the biggest nomadic population because buying a camels inside gedo cost almost 50 percent cheaper then buying one anywhere else in somalia, there is so much abundance of camels. Also the Italians counted reer taxle camels back in the day and it was at 167,000 camels. Just one subclan of marexaan.

Also look at Google earth and compare nugaal and sanaag to gedo.

There are thousands of berkeds all over the place in gedo

that proves reer gedo are bad at business

 

[GuanYu]

that proves reer gedo are bad at business

No it proves you do not understand economics

 

[El Nino]

All the prime land for farming and people still are nomads, this just shows we are fucked. High time to force people to farm.

 

[GuanYu]

All the prime land for farming and people still are nomads, this just shows we are fucked. High time to force people to farm.

Forcing people to farm is not going to make them productive, essentially going against their will and that's never the best idea when it comes to such things

 

[Libaax-Joore]

@Thegoodshepherd ur reer hirsi clans man processing hilib gele intu tunna canned

 

[Removed]

The camels in gedo are mx, Majority of the camels in middle jubba are mx and atleast 40 percent of camels in lower juba are mx.

We also take our camels to bay and bakool. Gedo has by far the biggest nomadic population in somalia if you look at Google earth you will see thousands of berkeds and baraaqs.

So why are they so weak and underrepresented was it because of the great Marexaan-Kenyan war

 

[repo]

So why are they so weak and underrepresented was it because of the great Marexaan-Kenyan war

 

[Burqad]

Ran some rough numbers to find out how much of Jubaland's agricultural GDP is generated by nomads vs farmers.
Many people who have been to the Shabelle regions, Hiraan Middle & Lower Shabelle, assume that settlement and production patterns there are similar to Jubaland. I think this is a mistake.

I have suspected that Jubaland is actually a region where nomads dominate the economy and agricultural production.
It is not a place where much farming takes place. The data seem to support this understanding.

Somalia's livestock population distribution in 1999

View attachment 241784

Somalia's livestock population distribution in 2014, 15 years later. Jubaland's share has gone down slightly.
The lower figures from 2014 were used instead of 2019.

View attachment 241785

Using crop data from 2019, the last year there was a normal harvest, I calculated how much value in $ farmers in Jubaland produced during that year.
Farmers in Jubaland grew about $25 million worth of crops in 2019.
View attachment 241786
Source: https://crops.fsnau.org/ & FAOSTAT

For livestock meat production, market data from July-August were used since that is when most livestock sales take place.
For livestock milk production, market data and livestock population data was used along with FAOSTAT production data.

View attachment 241787

Source: Market Update - July & August 2019, FAOSTAT, IGAD Centre for Pastoral Areas and Livestock Development (ICPALD)

When all is taken together, farmers contribute something like 6% of Jubaland's agricultural GDP.
Keep in mind that yearly rises and falls in the livestock sector's GDP can be on the order of 10%-15%.

View attachment 241788


Jubaland is a place where nomads are producing almost all of the agricultural GDP.
If you were to look at Jubaland's total GDP, farming probably accounts for less than 3%.
This should not be surprising. In Somalia as a whole, farming only accounted for 9% of agricultural GDP as recently as 2012.
The farmer of Jubaland are fairly marginal, it is a region of nomads.

View attachment 241790
Source: SOMALIA: COUNTRY ECONOMIC MEMORANDUM VOLUME I
Further reading:
Sub-Sector Mapping & Value Chain Analysis of the Livestock Sub-Sector in Somalia
Livestock Production in Somalia with Special Emphasis on Camels
SOMALIA TOWARDS A LIVESTOCK SECTOR STRATEGY
Livestock trade and devolution in the Somali-Kenya transboundary corridor
Pastoralism in a Stateless Environment: The Case of the Southern Somalia Borderlands
Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment VOLUME III Federal Member State and Administrative Region Reports

no wonder farmers grow seseme instead of food, 1000 dollars a ton vs 300 dollars a ton is a no brainer

 

[El Nino]

Forcing people to farm is not going to make them productive, essentially going against their will and that's never the best idea when it comes to such things

Little bit of coercion is needed, these nomads will overgraze the prime farmland.